Energy for One World- Future energy predictions

FUTURE ENERGY PREDICTIONS

Energy For One World

04/10/2023 Energy For One World- All rights reserved

Some key factors and assumptions determining the outlook

• Geopolitics, Economies and Economies stabilities;

• GDP- total, growth rates, per region, per country, per capita

• Population and population growth rates

• Energy Demand- world, per region, per country, per capita

• Energy Supply per Fuel Type, world, per region, per country

• Energy pricings – based on demand and supply balances, and costs of new production units and reserves replenishment/depletion

• Ecological Footprint, Emissions, Waste, Damage to nature

• Technology and technology breakthroughs, including energy efficiency gains

• Energy Transition Management & Managing the Mix Actively

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BP Statistical Review- 2012

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The Big Gap- Jumping the Gap

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Energy price development

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The link between the economy and energy

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Predictions and outlook vary widely over background and interests of parties

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Energy Scenario for coming decades

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How good are we at predicting our present energy future?

How good are we managing our present energy future?

Are we in control?

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IEA2000

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2006

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2010

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2011

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Game changing the Agenda: Energy Accounting

Energy Transition management

Business and Politics, East and West, Clean-tech and Conventionals, Rich and Poor

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04/10/2023

Energy For One World Proposal: A fresh approach to build our future

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Energy transition management per global wealth cluster- and based on a common agenda, a global and regional dialogue, inventory and action plan

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The need for energy transition management in each region, each sector

Courtesy: Delphi Foundation

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Lead time and lifetime matter

Buildings

Hydroelectricity plants

Nuclear plants

Coal power stations

Gas turbines

Vehicles

The rate of technological change is related to lead times to develop new equipment, obtain permits to deploy, and lifetimes of capital stock and equipment

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Time in years

Source: Shell Energy Scenarios

Taking into consideration existing infrastructure, interests or , serious construction capacity constraints...

Building cost: 3000 €/ kWCO2 emission: - kg/ MwhConstruction L.T. : 6 yearsFuel costs: 5 €/Mwh

Building cost: 1285 €/ kWCO2 emission: 750 kg/ MwhConstruction L.T. : 4 yearsFuel costs: 15 €/Mwh

Building cost: 672€/ kWCO2 emission: 350 kg/ MwhConstruction L.T. : 2 yearsFuel costs: 30 €/Mwh

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Conclusions

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