LEARN LIKE A SCIENTIST: YOUR FIRST EXPERIMENT (JABE BLOOM) - LKCE13

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LEARN LIKE A SCIENTIST:

YOUR FIRST EXPERIMENT

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Joshua (Jabe) Bloom

&CTO:

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Qualities and Assumptions of

Science

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Demarcation

Pseudoscience Scientism

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If It Is Scientific, You Can Show Me How You Did It and We Can See

If I can Repeat It.

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Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts. !Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points

of view. !Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no "authorities"). !

Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy. !

Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours. !Quantify, wherever possible. !

If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work. !Occam's razor - if there are two hypotheses that explain the data equally well choose

the simpler. !Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified (shown to be false by

some unambiguous test). In other words, it is testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result?

Baloney Detection Kit

http://jabe.co/BaloneyKitCarl Sagan

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Criteria of

Truth

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Lousy Criteria

Authority Custom

Emotions Naïve Realism

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The truths science attempts to reveal about atoms and the solar system and even

about microbes and bacteria would still be true even if human beings had

never existed !-Anthony O'Hear

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Veritas est adaequatio rei et intellectus

A judgment is said to be true when it conforms to the external reality

!

-Thomas Aquinas

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[Abduction] goes upon the hope that there is sufficient affinity between the reasoner's mind and nature's to render

guessing not altogether hopeless, provided each guess is checked by

comparison with observation... The effort should therefore be to make each

hypothesis... as near an even bet as possible.

-Charles Peirce

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That's the whole point to the Scientific Method. It can never actually verify truth, but it can

show what is not true. !

-Jim Haines

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that which does not work is not true

!

-William Ernest Hocking

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Fallibility

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Pieces of behaviour, beliefs, arguments, policies, and other

exercises of the human mind may all be described as rational. To accept something as rational is to accept it as making sense, as appropriate, or

required, or in accordance with some acknowledged goal, such as aiming

at truth or aiming at the good -Blackburn

Rationality

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Abductionnot just for

Aliens

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ABDUCE

DEDUCE

INDUCE

Predictive

Probable

Plausible

The Way

Computers "Think"

The Way

Humans Think

Binary

Probability

Analogue

Justifiable

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Parsimony

Occam’s Razor

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Inspiration Exploration

Testing Collaboration Exploitation

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Inspiration

New Technology, New Problems, Personal Practice, Managed

Serendipity !

Surprise

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ExplorationObservations,

Research, Questioning, Collaboration

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Testing

Hypothesis Generation, Defining

Expectation, Experimentation

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Collaboration

Explanation, Conversation, Interpretation,

Challenging, Peer Reviewing, Repeating/

Validating

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Exploitation

$$, Solve Problems, Make the World Better,

Delight Customers

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Scientific examination arises out of, and is

dependent upon, a previous, or an ontologically prior

praxis context. -Ihde

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Exploitation

Collaboration

Testing

Exploration

Inspiration

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What Do Knowledge Workers

Use Science For?

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Scientific Realism vs

Instrumentalism

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Pragmatic Economic

Instrumentalist

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Guess -> Knowledge !

Knowledge to Profit !

Canaries

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Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally, using

models and the scientific method

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The link between objective truth and inter-subjective agreement is so strong that the former is difficult to defend when the latter

fails. !-Hugh G. Gauch, Jr

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Your First Experiments

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SAFETY RULES

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Safe-To-Fail

First Don’t Do (too much) Harm

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Turn Commitments into Options

(bring a rope)

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There is no surer way to screw up an experiment

than to be certain of its outcome.

!

-Stuart Firestein

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ABDUCE

DEDUCE

INDUCE

Experiences Hypothesises

ExpectedOutcomes

If Coherent

If Expected Outcomes Match Reality

EffectiveMatch

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Build

Learn Measure

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Build

Learn Measure

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LeanUX New Product Dev

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Problem Hypothesis

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Problem Hypothesis

CustomerHypothesis

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Problem Hypothesis

CustomerHypothesis

SolutionHypothesis

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Problem Hypothesis

CustomerHypothesis

SolutionHypothesis

WHY?

Assumptions Assumptions

Assumptions

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Which of these Assumptions MUST be True for my model to

be coherent?

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How can I invalidate these

assumptions?

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Write Down What You Think Will Happen BEFORE You DO It.

!

Show it to your peers. !

Honestly PUBLICLY Examine Your Results

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Joshua (Jabe) Bloom CTO : The Library Corporation

& TLC Labs http://tlclabs.co

blog http://blog.jabebloom.com !!

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