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How to take the transformative change of 2009 and beyond and turn it into business opportunity.
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THINK FAST!
Using CI for business development in a time of transformative change
Eric Garland
WILDCARD EVENTSSTRUCTURAL FACTORS
+ ACTOR DECISIONS
+
FORESIGHT 101
The big question:
Is this business-as-usual?
...or is something
entirely new
happening?
Competitive intelligence career hint:Nobody wants more bad news
Hey, by the way, 30 of the 50 states
declared bankruptcy today!
Go jump in a lake.
Tell me how to fix this mess or get out
of my office.
Considerably more popular:
Intelligence professionals who look for new opportunities along with competitive threats
Look, when our competitors went bankrupt, 200 of their best engineers
went looking for new work - an opportunity for HR?
Our challenge!Use the methodology of competitive intelligence to seek out profitable new business in a rapidly changing world
ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR, ONCE IN A LIFETIME
CHANGE
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Horrific national retail sprawl to finally collapse
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Population of senior citizens to double
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Replacing a workforce of 70 million with one of 30 million
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGETwo billion more people in economically
under-developed countries
Mexico city
Near East:Jordan, Syria, Israel – drinking from the same aquifer!
Egypt
Andalucia
Subsaharan Africa
Ogalalla Acquifer
N.S.W. Australia
China - $11 billion in lost manufacturing due to polluted water!
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Water will become more important than oil
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Shift from the country to the
city almost complete:52% of the population
90% of the GDP
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:U.S. healthcare expenditure from $2 trillion -> $4 trillion
That stings a little...
Well, I’m sucking
$400,000 out of your blood.
EXERCISES!
1. Pick your favorite transformative trend
2. Talk about all the people who will be affected, for good, bad or indifferent
3. Think about what they will need, want, dislike, etc.
4. Imagine a business that could be formed around this
5. Extra points: Say which companies are best poised to create those businesses - or if they need to be start-ups
THANK YOU!Eric Garland
Competitive Futures, Inc.1317 F St. NW Wash, DC 20004www.competitivefutures.com
(202) 508-1496
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