Wfs Conference Guy Lundy

South Africa towards 2030:Reasons to Believe

Guy Lundy

Creating the future

“We don’t describe the future we see;we see the future we describe”

Philip Spies

George Bernard Shaw

“Newspapers areunable todiscriminate…discriminate…between abicycle accidentand the collapseof civilisation.”

We live in interesting times…

Long waves…

Warof

USCivil

WorldWar I

VietnamWar

Roaring20s

Oil

2000s

1780 1810 1820 1830 1860 1870 1880 1900 1915 1925 1940 1970 1980 2010

of1812

CivilWar

OilcrisisGreat

Depression

WorldWar II

Steam power Railways Electricity & cars Computers

War onTerror

…and Black Swans

The world we live in

• Globalisation is interlinked with:

– Financial crisis

World’s safest banks

1. Canada2. New Zealand3. Australia4. Chile5. Hong Kong

40. France44. Switzerland47. Botswana103. Germany108. United States5. Hong Kong

6. South Africa7. Namibia8. Singapore9. Panama10. Brazil

108. United States118. Argentina130. Iceland131. Zimbabwe132. Mongolia133. Ukraine

Source: World Economic Forum

The world we live in• Globalisation is interlinked with:

– Financial crisis

– Environmental threats

– Aging populations

• Emergence of BRIC countries

African growth

• More successful countries

• Chindian investments

• Scramble by former dominantplayers to reassert themselvesplayers to reassert themselves

• Telecommunications andmedia explosion

• The average African – young,urban and educated

• Skills returning

South Africa: Has the party ended?

• Relatively low inflation

Historical inflation in SA

Source: RMB

South Africa: Has the party ended?

• Relatively low inflation

• Quite low interest rates

Interest rates at a 30-year low

19

21

23

25

27

Source: SARB

9

11

13

15

17

19

19

91

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Prime

South Africa: Has the party ended?

• Relatively low inflation

• Quite low interest rates

• Decent growth till recently

• Confidence took a knock

Business confidence

The Eskom factor…

On the upside: South Africa 2010

• 64 matches

• 2.7 million spectators

• 300,000 potential tourists?

• Cumulative televisionaudience of 28 billion

Changing the way the world sees us

Joining the “cool” places

Barcelona 1992 Sydney 2000 Germany 2006

A new view

Infrastructure improvements

• Roads

• Bus Rapid Transit

• Train station upgrades

• Gautrain

• Pedestrianisation• Pedestrianisation

• Bandwidth

• Digital TV

• New mobile masts

• Airports

• Power upgrades

• Harbours

The Growing Middle Class

• Black EconomicEmpowerment &Affirmative Action

• Education• Education

• Urbanisation

• Service delivery

Poverty & Inequality remainmajor challenges

President Zuma:A Reagan-like character?

The Power behind the Power

The youth of today (and tomorrow)

• Non-racialism

• Cultural melting pot

• Mixed relationships• Mixed relationships

• Common language

The South African puzzleCorruption

UnemploymentAIDS

PovertyZimbabwe

Challenges

Unemployment

CrimeJulius

Malema

Eskom

Racism

Education

“A positive future is not a spectator’s future,it’s a participant’s future”

Creating the future

Philip Spies