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A new and innovative approach in marketing ROI measurement. Goes beyond traditional marketing mix models by 1) developing long-term ad effects measurements, 2) measuring media message and creative, 3) quantifying the interactions or synergies across the marketing mix and 4) measuring the voice-of-the customer through social media
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Innovations in marketing effectiveness measurement.
Introducing…
Bottom-Line Analytics is a full service consulting group focusing on marketing effectiveness and brand performance analytics.
Our modeling experts have a total of over 100 years of direct experiencewith marketing mix modeling.
We are dedicated to the principles of innovation, excellence and uncompromising customer service.
Everything we do is geared towards improving commercial performance.
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Our experience
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Incremental Contribution from marketing
Return on Investment per £1 spent Optimise spend, maximise sales
Develop relationship between sales and drivers
Standard Marketing Mix Modeling (Econometrics)
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…pushing the boundaries
TV RADI
O
NEW
SPAP
ER
PAID
SEA
RCH
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Effectiveness Modeling (econometrics) has not changed a great deal over the last 20 years.
We fundamentally believe that marketing and media channels do not operate in silos; but moststatistical models treat them as such. We employ advanced non-linear methods which accountfor direct and indirect effects from marketing drivers.
Synergistic Effects
Copy Quality Effects
Social Media Effect
Long Term Effects
Innovations: Multi-dimensional Media Measurement
Bottom Line Analytics is at theforefront of innovations in mediameasurement. We have developedways to measure media synergies,copy quality, long term ad effects andsocial media engagement.
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Measure long term ad effectsMost advertising creates an initial short term lift in sales and a prolonged long termimpact. This is generated through repeat purchase and customer loyalty.
Long Term Effect
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Media copy quality measurementMedia content and copy quality can be separated and measured. This has implications fordesign, content and message mix.
Copy effect can vary – understanding and measuring this is vital
Note: we can apply this technique to digital media also.8
Assess marketing synergiesMarketing synergies can be assessed through simultaneous activation of campaigns. Theresults of combined activation are always greater than the sum of the parts. This is a clearindication of synergies from running truly integrated marketing campaigns (IMCs)
Reve
nue
(£)
Reve
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(£)
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nue
(£)
+31%+23%
+42%
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nue
(£)
+28%
Print Media & Paid Search Synergies
Print Media & Online banners Synergies
Direct Mail & Email Synergies
Outdoor & Online Synergies
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A breakthrough in measuring social media engagement
Can social media be measured?
1 The Growing Importance of Word of Mouth, www.boundless.com 11
Social Media really isn’t Media as we know it. It doesn’t have “inventory” and it’s not meant to deliver “ads” like traditional “media”
Marketing was once seen as a one way relationship, with firms broadcasting their offerings and value proposition.
• Now Marketing is seen more as a conversation between marketers and customers.1
• Social media is a key and critical channel for this two-way communication
Current social media metrics are expressed in terms of “sentiment”• Positive and negative commentaries about brands
• These metrics do not seem to explain or predict purchase behavior
Many have given up and say social media can not be measured
If we remember that social media is a form of word-of-mouth, then words matter!
• The semantics, linguistics and context of the conversation matters
Our Social Media analysis is based on Stance-Shift Analysis• Uses the Social Media conversations about your Brand as input
• Apply linguistic principles of sentiment and tonality
• Results in an engagement score that is a translation of a customer’s “personal” and “emotional” relationship with brands, as revealed through language & semantics….Social Engagement Index (SEI)
• Academically published, peer reviewed & validated.2
Stance-Shift Analysis translates the consumer’s qualitative emotions into quantitative metrics.
Our approach to measuring Social Media
122 Stance Analysis: social cues and attitudes in online interaction, Mason, P , Davis B, In E-Marketing Vol. II . 2005.
Developing the Social Engagement Index (SEI)
Net Positive SEI Index
1. Mine all brand related social media reviews and commentary.
2. Parse into positive & negative review groups
3. Apply Social Engagement Indexalgorithm to “score” reviews
4. Time code by period and aggregate metrics
Positive Reviews
NegativeReviews
Positive Scores
NegativeScores
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
HIGH 0 5 7
MEDIUM -5 0 5
LOW -7 -5 0
Emotional Effect
Pers
onal
isat
ion
SOCIALENGAGEMENTINDEX (SEI)
Conversations are scored on personal and emotional content
“I HAD A DIET COKE FOR LUNCH TODAY”
“THE WARM DIET COKE WAS RATHER BLAND”
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“I REALLY LOVE MY COKE WITH PIZZA”
“I LIKE THE TASTE OF SPRITE WITH LEMON”
“MY COKE HAS LOST ITS FIZZ AND TASTES AWFUL”
SEI shows superior correlations to brand sales compared with other Social Sentiment Metrics
82.9%
14.8%
9.9%
7.7%
5.9%
2.8%
-3.2%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT INDEX POS/NEG RATIO
METRIC 5 POS/NEG RATIO
METRIC 1 POS/NEG RATIO
METRIC 4 POS/NEG RATIO
METRIC 6 POS/NEG RATIO
METRIC 2 POS/NEG RATIO
METRIC 3 POS/NEG RATIO
Comparison of correlation to sales for the SEI versus the six leading sentiment metrics
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The correlation* to sales over time shows the SEI has Predictive Power16
ACID TEST: SEIsm has proven linkage with brand sales
Correlation = 86.4%
Correlation = 84%
Correlation = 81.1%
Correlation = 83%Correlation = 83%
* Lead lag analysis has confirmed that causation is only one way – the SEI to a large degree is able to drive hard commercial metrics.
Applications of the SEISM
Packaged inside a media mix model, the SEI acts as the key indicator for social media ‘word of mouth’.
We are able to determine the return on investment for social media and provide steer around the most effective channels and spend.
SEI to help uncover market insights
The SEI is also the primary tool used to understand the degree of brand engagement as it transpires through the use of language.
• Understand drivers to positive engagement.
• Measure the efficacy of individual campaigns.
• Develop content strategy that has cut through.
• Enhance the execution of sporting events.
• Assess brand perception in a competitive sense.
• Understand consumer discourse and manage crises.
SEI to measure social media ROI
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SEI to measure social media ROI
We find that conventional advertising has both a “direct” and “indirect” impact on sales due to its influence on social media conversations and the SEI.
The large contribution from the SEI support the notion that this is a “word-of-mouth” effect
67%
8%
3%2% 2%
10%
5%
11%
20%
Marketing Contributions
Base Sales Direct Alpha Brand Mass Media Direct Alpha Brand Digital MediaDirect Social Media Social Media on SEI Mass Media on SEIDigital Media on SEI SEI Base
Net driven by media
SEIEngagement
Sub-model
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The impact of Social Media sentiment
A key insight we uncovered across clients is the difference between “positive” and “negative” brand conversations
Negative-toned conversation have a significantly greater net impact on brand sales
+4.4%
+16.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Positive Sentiment Negative Sentiment
The absolute impact from positive & negative consumer reviews
Marketers need to develop strategies and tactics to immediately mitigate “Negative News” and prevent them from going Viral.
Much like other marketing and media metrics, we can deconstruct the different elements of the SEI metric into the channels driving social engagement and brand sales.
Source: Nielsen BuzzMetrics data as of November 27, 2011
Social channels driving consumer engagement and sales
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Most Important Drivers to Positive SEI.
Using this insight, the client developed a ‘bring
a friend, and get one coffee free’ to drive store
level sales.Positive SEI 3.93 = 100
Place2HangOut >5.46= 211
9.1%
Place2HangOut <5.46 = 83
91.9%
ToMeetPeople>9.43 = 325
2.6%
ToMeetPeople<9.63 = 188
6.5%
Atmosphere>14.0 = 466
0.6%
Atmosphere<14.0 = 288
1.9%
To Meet People>5.4 = 229
3.8%
To Meet People<5.4 = 85
85.5%
Beverage A>6.4 = 271
7.7%
Beverage A<6.4 = 74
77.8%
Place2HangOut>3.6 = 126
5.9%
Place2HangOut<3.6 = 76
71.9%
Beverage B>5.2 = 211.1
1.6%
Beverage B<5.2 = 67
70.3%
Note: Separate analysis - Classification & Regression Trees (CART)The tree starts with an average SEI score of 100; and each level indicates a higher or lower SEI based on an SEI score for a topic. The percent represents the percent of the sample in each segment.
Develop In-Market strategies based on “Why” consumers use your brand
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Alpha_P1
Beta_P1
Note: Separate analysis - Adapted Statistical Correspondence AnalysisExample: Global Coffee ChainBubble size represents the buzz/volume of chatter (SEI Conversational Clusters)
Alpha_P2Beta_P2
Gamma_P1
Gamma_P2
Net Chatter around value and price
Net Chatter around coolness, funky, style, Décor
Net Chatter around taste and product quality
Net Chatter around in-store customer experience
Delta_P2
Delta_P1
Good value
Coffee Price
Food prices
Staying in
Seating/chairs
Toilets
Richness
Latte
Amazing tasteLike no other
Cool brand
FunkyStylish Artwork/Decor
Visualise social media brand conversations
Why
Impartial and Independent
Full Service Analytics Capability
Social Media Measurement
Marketing Mix Modelling 3.0
Pricing Optimisation
Radial Landscape Mapping
Key Drivers Analysis
Demand Forecasting
Customer Satisfaction Modelling
Performance Analytics Dashboards
Segmentation Analysis
Our proprietary approach to social media
measurement is unrivalled.
Objective approach to media measurement.
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Michael Wolfe
CEOBottom Line AnalyticsE: mjw@bottomlineanalytics.comM: 770.485.0270
www.bottomlineanalytics.com
David Weinberger
CMOBottom Line AnalyticsE: David@bottomlineanalytics.comM: 770.649.0472
www.bottomlineanalytics.com
Masood Akhtar
Partner, Analytics (EMEA)Bottom Line AnalyticsE: ma@bottomlineanalytics.comM: +44 7970 789 663
www.bottomlineanalytics.com
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