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1
New Agendas on Youth and Young Adulthood
Youth Studies Conference
University of Glasgow
April 2013
David Cairns
Centre for Research and Studies in Sociology
ISCTE-IUL
david.cairns@iscte.pt
Everybody Hurts?
Tertiary Educated Portuguese Youth and the Impact of the Economic Crisis
Abstract
The economic crisis continues to create difficulties for youth, particularly in the
Mediterranean periphery of the European Union. This paper considers the impact of the
crisis and the austerity policies which have followed it in one of most affected countries,
Portugal, focusing upon tertiary educated youth in the capital city of Lisbon. Findings are
drawn from research undertaken in 2011 and 2012 with a total of 800 students, exploring
the extent of economic crisis impact in these young people’s lives and differentials
according to personal characteristics. Results show that the economic crisis is making a
dramatic impact on the lives of the majority of respondents: in respect to deteriorating
future job prospects and diminishing value of educational credentials, as well as more
personal impacts. Further analysis reveals that the impact of the crisis has grown more
pronounced over the two years in which fieldwork was conducted, as well as revealing the
extent of differentials according to factors including gender, age, parental occupation and
field of study.
Keywords
Students; Economic Crisis; Austerity; Portugal; Lisbon
Wordcount
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2
Introduction
This paper explores the impact of the economic crisis on youth, concentrating on young
people currently studying at tertiary level educational institutions in Portugal. This crisis,
which has been on-going since the global financial collapse of 2007/08 (Claessens et al.
2010), has brought with it hardship for millions of people across Europe, with rising costs of
living, swinging cuts in welfare, and elevated and expanded levels of taxation. To this we
might add extensive job losses and dwindling educational and occupational opportunities.
While many people are evidently suffering in the crisis affected countries, it is young people
who are bearing the brunt of the impact of crisis, demonstrated in spiralling unemployment
rates. In Portugal, it is also tertiary educated youth who have suffered the greatest loss of
opportunities, raising the rather disturbing notion that it may be the most diligent and
talented young people who are suffering the most, particularly in terms of the loss of future
employment prospects.1
What follows in this paper is a discussion of the situation facing Portuguese tertiary
educated youth in the aftermath of the economic crisis. Discussion is grounded in empirical
evidence gathered from a total of 800 students in the capital city of Lisbon during 2011 and
2012. The main line of enquiry is concerned not only with quantifying the impact of the
crisis but also looks for evidence of possible differentials in this impact, in respect to gender,
age, parental occupation and field of study. Can we say that all of those surveyed are
suffering equally, and have the hardships being endured deepened and/or broadened in
scope across the two years in which the research was conducted?
3
A Brief History of Portuguese Austerity
Although what follows relates to the contemporary Portuguese youth reality, with specific
reference to the post 2007/08 financial crisis period, it is important to contextualise the
present research in terms of historical factors. Certainly, the global financial crash and the
arrival of the Troika in Portugal in April 2011 are central to this reality but present hardships
are also the legacy of a failed attempt to overcome the social and economic deficits brought
about by the period of totalitarian dictatorship (1926-1974) and the social inequality
engendered by post-1974 development.2 When the global financial crisis reached Portugal,
the country was caught playing catch-up with its European neighbours, and having
accumulated an unmanageable debt burden, the country’s economy could not survive
without external help from the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and
European Commission Troika.
While there may not have been a malicious intent to impoverish the population from
Portuguese politicians, or even the shady personnel of the Troika, the response to the crisis
from successive Portuguese governments has grown progressively belligerent in terms of
the range and depth of austerity measures. Ironically, it was not a right wing government
which introduced austerity to Portugal but rather the Socialist party led administration of
Prime Minister José Socrates; this involved extensive cuts in public services including health
and education, tax rises and reductions in salaries, particularly for those working in the
public sector as part of a series of un-ironically titled Packages for Economic Stability (PECs).
While the austerity measures of the Socrates government were perceived at the time as
being unduly harsh, to the extent of prompting an election which removed the socialist
party from office after the failure to ratify PEC 4 in early 2011, the measures introduced by
4
centre-right coalition led by Pedro Passos Coelho which came to power in mid-2011 have
been sterner. In fact, these austerity policies now only exceeded what had gone before in
Portugal but surpassed what the Troika actually demanded in terms of cuts in public
expenditure to the point where the 2011 budget was deemed unconstitutional due to a
disproportionate targeting of public sector workers. This led to a revised, and more
inclusive, range of austerity measures being formulated in 2012 which proposed salary cuts
for both public and private sector workers.
This very brief history of Portuguese austerity is pertinent to the present research in
that these successive waves of austerity measures have impacted upon the lives of
Portuguese youth in a potentially different manner; this is why two surveys have been
conducted in 2011 and 2012, to appraise the impact of the respective austerity measures.
Austerity itself has influenced the research design, in providing many obvious questions in
need of answers. For example, what impact is the drastically reduced number and range of
job opportunities in Portugal having upon these young people? What of the state’s
withdrawing investment from tertiary education? How do young people cope with the more
indirect impact of financial hardship experienced by family members upon whom they are
dependent? And what of the consequences for the future particularly in respect to the
possibility of attaining financial independence or starting a family?
Methodological Approach
As noted above, this paper looks at the impact of the economic crisis in Portugal at two
intervals. Data has been gathered from students in 2011 and 2012, with two matched
5
samples of 400 cases for each respective year. All the respondents were aged between 18
and 25 years old and living in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. Fieldwork consisted of a
quantitative survey, with a sample constructed using the parameters of field of study and
gender from the most recently available statistics on the Portuguese student population.
Respondents were spread proportionately across twelve different academic fields of study:
Business and Administration; Health; Engineering; Social and Behavioural Sciences;
Architecture; Arts; Education; Law; Humanities; Life Sciences; and Computing.3 Data
collection was performed at various faculties of the four public universities in Lisbon
(University of Lisbon, New University of Lisbon, Technical University of Lisbon and ISCTE-
University Institute of Lisbon).
Shared Impact of the Economic Crisis
Discussion of results begins with an overview of the impact being made by the crisis. The
questionnaire included a block of questions developed during previous research on the
economic crisis in Portugal (Cairns 2011). These questions examined five key areas in which
a student respondent may have been affected by the economic crisis and the austerity
responses mentioned in the contextual discussion. This incorporated not only issues that
might be regarded as explicit, or more tacit, economic dimensions such as the possibilities
of finding a job and attaining financial independence, but also more personal matters,
namely the likelihood of having a family of one’s own and feelings of well-being. Bearing in
mind the educational context of the research, added to this is a question relating to tertiary
level qualifications as a diminishing asset.4 All these questions were phrased to measure the
respondent’s own subjective experiences during the economic crisis as opposed to a more
6
general youth cohort impact. The availability of data from two surveyed also provides an
opportunity to examine the significance of changes between 2011 and 2012.
Table 1. Economic Crisis Impact: 2011 and 2012
2011 (%) 2012 (%)
Value of qualifications diminishing** 74 83
Possibility of finding a job decreasing 91 89
Possibility of becoming financially independent decreasing* 88 92
Possibility of having own family decreasing*** 56 77
Sense of personal well-being negatively affected*** 54 74
All five impacts*** 27 40
Pearson’s chi square level of significance *** .001 **>.005 *>.05
Looking at Table 1, it is evident that the majority of respondents feel that the economic
crisis has been affecting their lives, and in multiple ways. The more obvious economic
questions provide the most predictable answers: given the present level of graduate
unemployment in Portugal it is no surprise to learn that the possibility of finding a job has
been decreasing for these young people; while slightly fewer respondents, 89 per cent,
agreed in 2012 compared to 91 per cent the previous year, the difference is not significant
and the figures still extremely high. Similar numbers of respondents also agreed that the
possibility of attaining financial independence from their families was decreasing: 88 per
cent in 2011 compared to 92 per cent in 2012.
The results in this table show that there has been a general increase in levels of crisis
impact during the timeframe of this research, implying that the continuation and expansion
of austerity policy is making matters worse for more tertiary educated young people in
7
Portugal. This is certainly the case in respect to perceptions of the value of educational
credentials: in 2011, 74 per cent felt that the value of their qualifications was diminishing
while in 2012, the equivalent figure was 83 per cent. This implies that tertiary level
qualifications are losing their salience as a means of labour market entry; and increasingly
so. However, the greatest change between 2011 and 2012 relates to the two more
subjective personal considerations: there was a sharp increase in the number of cases in
which it was felt the possibility of having a family was decreasing, 56 per cent in 2011 and
77 per cent in 2012; likewise the negative impact on personal well-being increased from 54
per cent in 2011 to 74 per cent in 2012.5
Differential Crisis Impacts
Having found that there is a generalised, and increasing, economic crisis impact among
respondents, we now move towards exploring differentials; do factors such as gender, age
and socio-economic background, as well as field of study, have an impact on the likelihood
of been affected by the crisis? And what of changes between various groups across the two
time periods in which the research was conducted? Table 2 presents an overview of mean
scores to the aggregated five impacts for the 2011 and 2012 samples.
Table 2. Respondents with all economic crisis impacts (mean scores): 2011 and 2012
2011 2012
Gender
Male
Female .68 .79
8
.77 .86
Age
18 .69 .78
19 .73 .90
20 .71 .85
21 .79 .74
22 .76 .85
23 .74 .92
24 .58 .83
25 .64 .91
Parental occupation
Professionals .69 .76
Managerial/Technical .67 .84
Non-Manual Skilled .75 .83
Manual Skilled .74 .77
Partly Skilled .76 .79
Unskilled .68 .95
Field of Study
Business and Administration .70 .84
Health .73 .92
Engineering .61 .63
Social and Behavioural Sciences .81 .90
Architecture and Building .58 .78
Arts .81 .89
Education .94 .88
Law .80 .92
Personal Services .83 .80 Humanities .84 .87
Life Sciences .68 .85
Computing .55 .75
All Cases .73 .83
9
While we have observed from Table 1 that there is a generally high level of impact within
the tertiary educated cohort per se, Table 2 shows that there are differences between and
within various groups, and across the two years in which the research was conducted.
Gender
Looking at gender, in 2011 there was significantly greater impact for young women
compared to young men; at a level of .001 according to the Anova statistic. One year later in
2012, the difference between male and female was still significant, albeit to a slightly lesser
extent (.006).
Figure 1. Economic crisis impacts (mean scores) by gender: 2011 and 2012
10
Figure 1 meanwhile graphically illustrates the difference between 2011 and 2012. As we
already know, there has been a general increase in impact (Table 1) but now we can see
that while the gap between male and female has not widening, and in fact marginally
decreased, it is still a considerable difference; in fact, t-test equality test statistics confirm
that the gap across years is significant (2-tailed) to a point of .000. Therefore, we can deduce
that gender matters in respect to the impact of the economic crisis registered by the
respondents and that while the level of impact has increased for male and female alike in
2012, a significant disparity remains.
Age
11
The picture in regard to age differentials is less clear. Looking at the means for 2011, we can
see that there are certainly differences but there is no distinct trend. The level of crisis
impact does not rise or fall in a coherent manner according to respondents being
progressively older or younger; Anova confirms that while there is a statistical tendency
towards age divergence (.054) this is not present to the extent as was the case with gender
differences. In 2012, the difference between age groups was at a more significant level
(.004), but again there is no linear pattern of results, i.e. impact progressively rising or falling
with age. What this means is that there are some very significant differences between
young people of certain ages revealed by Independent Samples t-tests, for instance
between 18 and 21 year olds, 21 and 24 year olds, 21 and 25 year olds and 22 and 24 year
olds in 2011 or 18 and 19 year olds, 19 and 21 year olds, 20 and 21 year olds, 21 and 22 year
olds, 21 and 23 year olds and 21 and 25 year olds in 2012, but no consistent pattern of
results.
Figure 2. Economic crisis impacts (mean scores) by age: 2011 and 2012
12
The outcomes illustrated in Figure 2 are perhaps more interesting. A significant difference
between the two years is apparent (t-test equality of means (2-tailed) .000): therefore, in
each age group with the exception of those aged 21 there has been an increase in crisis
impact in 2012. Significant disparities have also opened up between means in 2011 and
2012 for the 24 and 25 year old age groups, the latter of whom registered much greater
crisis impact. This would seem to indicate that impact has increased for old respondents
across the two time periods.
Parental Occupation
Identifying student respondents in terms of socio-economic position is always problematic,
given that such young people have yet to enter the full-time labour market; more so in
13
Portugal where there is no strong tradition of working while studying, due to factor such as
the long-standing willingness of families to provide inter-generational support, the low
levels of wages in jobs in the professions in which students could conceivably work and, for
more advanced scholars, the availability of state support at post-doctoral levels. This
situation means making recourse to the imperfect indicator of parental occupation in order
to assess this issue; imperfect both in the sense that this approach implies generational
equivalence of socio-economic position and the practical difficulty of situating respondents
with economically inactive parents. For this study, it was nevertheless possible to classify all
but 51 out of 800 cases, where parents were unemployed, working in unspecified
occupations or deceased.6
Looking at the overview of means presented in Table 2, we can observe disparities
between young people according to parental occupation, but in this instance differences
between groups are not significant and as with age there is no obvious trend: in respect to
2011, we cannot say that high impact is concentrated in the ‘highest’ or ‘lowest’
occupational groups but rather generally concentrated in the middle ranking occupations; in
2012 while the greatest impact was felt amongst respondents with ‘unskilled’ parents,
impact is also high for those with ‘managerial/technical’ parents. Looking at disparities
between groups, there are statistically significant differences revealed by Independent
Samples t-tests but only in 2012; between the outlying ‘unskilled’ group in contrast to the
other occupational categories.
Figure 3. Economic crisis impacts (mean scores) by parental occupation: 2011 and 2012
14
In regard to disparities between the two years, Figure 3 implies that there has been a
dramatic deepening of impact in the ‘unskilled’ group; and this is indeed the case (t-test
equality of means (2-tailed) .000). Elsewhere, changes across time are less pronounced.
What this means is that in the more recent sample, there is evidence suggesting a
heightening of crisis impact among those who may be from less well-off backgrounds,
although there is also greater impact at the other end of the occupational spectrum,
suggesting a continued broad diffusion of impact, as was the case in the 2011 sample.
Field of Study
15
Table 2 shows that differences between different fields of study were very significant in
both years (according to the Anova statistic, to a level of .000), and that level of impact
increased in all groups except ‘Education’ and ‘Personal Services’. Those most affected in
2011 were studying Education, Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences subjects, while in 2012
it was Health, Law, Social Sciences and Arts. Looking at differences between educational
groups, there were a host of significant disparities: 2011, between ‘Business’ and ‘Social
Sciences’, ‘Business’ and ‘Building’, ‘Business’ and ‘Education’, ‘Health’ and ‘Engineering’,
‘Health’ and ‘Building’, ‘Health and Education’, ‘Social Sciences’ and ‘Building’, ‘Social
Sciences’ and ‘Education’, ‘Social Sciences’ and ‘Computing’, ‘Building’ and ‘Arts’, ‘Building’
and ‘Education’, ‘Building’ and ‘Law’, ‘Building’ and ‘Personal Services’, ‘Building’ and
‘Humanities’, ‘Arts’ and ‘Education’, ‘Arts’ and ‘Computing’, ‘Education’ and ‘Law’,
‘Education’ and ‘Personal Services’, ‘Education’ and ‘Humanities’, ‘Education’ and ‘Life
Sciences’, ‘Education’ and ‘Computing’, ‘Law’ and ‘Computing’, ‘Personal Services’ and
‘Computing’ and ‘Humanities’ and ‘Computing;’ in 2012, ‘Business’ and ‘Health’, ‘Business’
and ‘Engineering’, ‘Health and Engineering’, ‘Health’ and ‘Building’, ‘Health’ and
‘Computing’, ‘Engineering’ and ‘Social Sciences’, ‘Engineering’ and ‘Building’, ‘Engineering’
and ‘Arts’, ‘Engineering’ and ‘Education’, ‘Engineering’ and ‘Law’, ‘Engineering’ and
‘Humanities’, ‘Engineering’ and ‘Life Sciences’, ‘Social Sciences’ and ‘Building’, ‘Social
Sciences’ and ‘Computing’, ‘Building’ and ‘Law’ and ‘Law’ and ‘Computing.’
Figure 4. Economic crisis impacts (mean scores) by field of study: 2011 and 2012
16
Figure 4 illustrates the disparities across the two annual samples. What emerges is quite a
mixed picture. As mentioned previously, there was an increase in impact intensity in all but
two groups although differences were not statistically significant; however, significant
increases were found among ‘Business’, ‘Health’, ‘Social Sciences’ and ‘Building’ students.
Combined Impacts
To better understand the significance of the combination of these various factors, linear
regression analysis has been conducted, with mean impact as the dependent variable and
gender (ref. cat male), age, parental occupation (ref. cat ‘unskilled’) and field of study (ref.
cat ‘computing’) as dependent variables. Two models are presented below, representing
17
results from 2011 and 2012 respectively. In Model 1 (2011), R square was .136 (Adjusted R
square .114) and according to Anova, the model was significant to a level of .000. In Model 2
(2012), R square was .176 (Adjusted R square .133) and according to Anova, the model was
also significant to a level of .000.
Table 3. Crisis impact: coefficients of gender, age, parental occupation and field of study
Model Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1
(Constant) .560 .125 4,493 ,000
Gender (male) -.034 .021 -.064 -1.639 ,102
Age ,005 ,005 ,035 ,967 ,334
PO - Professional -.046 .046 -.061 -1.011 .312
PO - Managerial -.015 .049 -.017 -.301 .763
PO – Non-Man. Skilled .036 .041 .068 .886 .376
PO – Man. Skilled -.007 .049 -.008 -.142 .887
PO – Partly Skilled -.008 .048 -.009 -.170 .865
Business .117 .062 .169 1.904 .057
Health .167 .062 .235 2.666 .008
Engineering -.012 .062 -.016 -.192 .848
Social Sciences .187 .064 .219 2.910 .004
Building -.001 .066 -.001 -.020 .984
Arts .195 .068 .183 2.878 .004
Education .240 .069 .229 3.501 .000
Law .211 .070 .185 3.025 .003
Personal Services .172 .085 .095 2.018 .044
Humanities .198 .074 .144 2.663 .008
Life Sciences .119 .077 .081 1.556 .120
2
(Constant) .547 .174 3.148 .002
Gender (male) -.030 .028 -.060 -1.074 .284
Age .013 .007 .108 1.955 .051
PO - Professional -.082 .073 -.089 -1-115 .266 PO - Managerial -.050 .068 -.064 -.742 .458
PO – Non-Man. Skilled -.035 .059 -.069 -.600 .549
PO – Man. Skilled -.099 .074 -.104 -1.340 .181
18
PO – Partly Skilled -.100 .073 -.104 -1.366 .173
Business .086 .082 .131 1.046 .296
Health .153 .083 .233 1.847 .066
Engineering -.121 .082 -.180 -1.478 .140
Social Sciences .126 .085 .158 1.482 .139
Building -.012 .090 -.012 -.134 .894
Arts .120 .090 .126 1.337 .182
Education .091 .091 .095 .997 .320
Law .129 .092 .122 1.399 .163
Personal Services .047 .260 .009 .180 .857
Humanities .114 .100 .087 1.144 .254
Life Sciences .082 .101 .061 .816 .415
Looking at the first model, we can see that the most significant independent variables all
related to field of study: the implication is that those aiming towards jobs in certain
occupational areas have felt most impact. This is not surprising given that the austerity
measures in 2011 were disproportionately aimed at workers in areas such as Health and
Education, while in other areas such as Law there are problems due to a pre-existing lack of
opportunities (see Cairns et al. forthcoming) and Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences have
long been typified as offering a limited future prospects. It is also notable that there has
been very little impact in areas such as Engineering and Building, which, at this time,
seemed to be weathering the economic crisis in Portugal well. Moving on to Model 2, and
the 2012 data, while there are some interesting statistical tendency, for instance in respect
to age, we can see that all the statistically significant outcomes revealed in Model 1 have
been more or less equalised. The impact of the economic crisis is hence more general and
we can say that a more broad-based programme of austerity measures in 2012 seems to
have resulted in a more equal sharing of crisis impact among the student respondents.
19
Discussion
These results certainly invite discussion. The initial breakdowns of Tables 1 and 2 illustrate,
respectively, that there is a high level of crisis impact as measured by a number of diverse
indicators, and that certain groups of young people seem to be more affected than others,
most obviously young women and certain field of study groups. These Tables also show that
the general depth of impact has increased between 2011 and 2012 among these student
respondents in Lisbon. This is not surprising, considering that not only has one more year of
austerity been endured by the more recent respondents but also that the range of austerity
measures expanded. The linear regression analysis provides a further perspective,
illustrating particularly how differential impact has been dissipated between the two years.
This applies that crisis impact has diffused, in tandem with or perhaps even because of the
expansion of the austerity measures.
Putting these results into context, it does need to be stressed that the group under
scrutiny, tertiary educated young people in Portugal, are suffering disproportionately
greater hardship compared to other age demographic and educational groups.
Nevertheless, this is a substantial part of the youth population (approximately 300,000
strong), and one which may feel particularly aggrieved since they are a generation facing
hardship for which they bear little or no responsibility for creating. This nevertheless raises
an important philosophical consideration, in that it is most educationally gifted young
people who are suffering most, implying that there is anti-educational impetus
accompanying the austerity policies. This is obviously a cause for concern in a relatively
peripheral society, not to mention inconsistent with the values espoused by austerity
exponents such as Chancellor Merkel.7
20
It is as yet unknown how long Portugal will continue in a state of crisis.
this is in stark contrast to the period preceding the crisis, characterised by an expansion of
tertiary level educational and career pathways (Machado Pais 2003)
To answer the question in the title of this concluding discussion, the answer is
somewhat perversely, yes and no. More specifically, the main finding of this paper is that
the impact of the economic crisis appears to be very widely distributed and generally
shared; however there are signs of differentials emerging, particular in relation to gender,
with young women registering more economic crisis impacts.
Acknowledgements
The author is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Studies and Research in Sociology, ISCTE-
Lisbon University Institute (CIES-IUL) in Lisbon, funded by the Portuguese Foundation for
Science and Technology’s Ciência 2008 programme. I would like to thank my colleagues for
their assistance in conducting this research, especially Nuno de Almeida Alves, Ana
Alexandre and Tiago Carvalho.
Notes
1. At the time of writing (3rd Quarter 2012), the official unemployed for the general population rate stood at 15.8%, but was 39% for the 15-24 year old age group and 42.8% for those with tertiary level education within this group (INE 2013). A full contextualisation of the employment situation of tertiary educated youth in Portugal will be included in the published version of this paper.
2. To these reasons we could add consistently low levels of economic productivity, high public expenditure to help overcome deficits in areas such as health and education, coupled with the pressure to meet Eurozone targets following membership of the European single currency.
3. Statistics produced by the Portuguese National Statistics Agency divide the student population into twenty two academic subject groups but only the largest groups were included in the final sample due to the small sizes of other groups (INE 2010: 118-119). For a
21
full discussion of results relating to the 2011 survey, see Cairns and Growiec (forthcoming) and Cairns et al. (forthcoming).
4. Outside Portugal, the declining value of educational credentials has been related to excessive numbers of graduates in relative to the number of graduate level jobs (see Roberts 2012).
5. In respect to the negative impact on personal well-being, interviews conducted as part of the 2011 research showed that there was a profound loss of hope in the future among some respondents, as well as unhappiness at declining job opportunities and, in one exceptional case, a reduced likelihood of completing studies. To the specific question of decreasing belief in the possibility of having a family, it was also interesting to observe that there was no significant difference between male and female respondents in either year.
6. Rather than use occupational classification systems such as ISCO-88, which are more appropriate for large scale surveys of the ‘adult’ population, the classification system detailed by Rose (1995) was employed.
7. This inconsistency is also mentioned in a recent interview with Ulrich Beck on the subject of Germany’s role as arbiter of the economic crisis and somewhat confused self-perception. See: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/03/25/five-minutes-with-ulrich-beck-germany-has-created-an-accidental-empire/
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