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“Everyone talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” Mark Twain
Rising Waters
Threats
DamsInvasives
Barriers to migration
Increascipitation
Overfishing
Sea level rise
Habitat loss
Targets
Partnership
Scenario Planning model developed by Shell
20 year time frame
Focus on adaptation, not mitigation
Apply social science tools
Factor in human response to climate change
Rising Waters Eastern NY
Chapter
Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve
New York StateWater Resources Institute
at Cornell University
Multi-stakeholder climate change adaptation using scenario planning
Multi-stakeholder scenario planningBusiness/Economic Biological/Social Infrastructure/Serviceacademic - economics academic - biology educationagriculture academic - climatology emergency respondersbusiness groups from imper. areas academic - modeling engineersdevelopment - county academic - social science health caredevelopment - private art infrastructure - shorelinedevelopment - real estate conservation infrastructure - transportationdevelopment - region env. justice/low-income advocates infrastructure - utilitiesdevelopment - town faith infrastructure - water supply & treat.employer - large historic preservationemployer - small philanthropic interestsfinancial community toxics interestsfishinginsurance Othermarinas & boat clubs Land political leaderplanning - county landowners - in flood prone areas steering committeeplanning - local landowners - major private z-(not sure)planning - regional landowners - major public publishing
Rising Waters
Participant Interests
160 people to date !!!
©2005 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
Timeline Scenarios
Team
WorkingGroups
Stakeholders
T1
W5W2W1
T4T3T2
First Workshop
Learning
FinalWorkshop
April 2008 April 2009June - Dec 2008
Creating Applying
2-4 Workshops
W3 W4
Rising Waters
Impact 2030 2080-2100 Average Annual Temp. 2.2 deg F (NYCDEP A1B scenario) 6.2 deg F (NYCDEP A1B scenario)
Average Winter Temp. Increase 3.3 deg F (NECIA) Increase 7.8 deg F (NECIA)
Sea Level 2.8” (Doesn't account for recent research finding increased rates of ice melt) (NYCDEP A1B scenario)
16.5” (Doesn't account for recent research finding increased rates of ice melt) (NYCDEP A1B scenario)
Precipitation 0.6% increase (NYCDEP A1B scenario) 8% increase (NYCDEP A1B scenario)
Snow
Area of snowcover will contract. More precip as rain instead of snow. Denser slushier snow. (NECIA) Snow covered days in the HRV has decreased by another 14-16 days since 2001(Indicators of Climate Change in Northeast)
Area of snowcover will contract. More precip as rain instead of snow. Denser slushier snow. Lose 9 snow-covered days per month. 38% shorter snow season in spring. (NECIA)
Hurricanes/ Nor'eastersIncrease in intensity of strong storms. No definitive link between warming and hurricane frequency. (NECIA/NYCDEP)
Increase in intensity of strong storms. No definitive link between warming and hurricane frequency. (NECIA/NYCDEP)
Extreme Rainfall Events
Increase in winter precip. Max precip. In 5 days increases approx. 10%. One more day of rain >2"/yr. Precip. Intensity (avg amount of rain that falls on any given rainy day) increases 7-8%. (NECIA)
20-30% increase in winter precip. Max precip. In 5 days increases approx. 20%. Approx. 1.5 more days of rain >2"/yr. Precip. Intensity (avg amount of rain that falls on any given rainy day) increases 13-14%. (NECIA)
Heat Waves Average of 22 days each year over 90 deg F and 3 days over 100 deg F annually. (NECIA)
Average of 54 days over 100 deg F and 16 days over 100 deg F annually. (NECIA)
DroughtLittle change. Currently short term (1-3 mo.) drought occurs 1 every 2-3 years. (NECIA)
Slight increase in frequency of short (1-3 mo.) and medium (3-6 mo.) term drought. (NECIA)
Timing of Seasons
On average spring (first leaf, first bloom) earlier by 3 days, first frost 3 days earlier, last frost 2 days later, growing season longer by 5 days. Ice in later, ice-out a full week earlier. Peak streamflow 4 days earlier. (NECIA)
On average spring (first leaf, first bloom) earlier by 10 days, growing season (days between last freeze in spring and first freeze in fall) 5 weeks longer, last frost (in spring) 19 days earlier, first frost (in fall) 13 days later, peak streamflow 12 days earlier. Ice in later, many southern HV lakes often stay ice-free (NECIA)
Water Temps Regional sea surface temps 2 deg F warmer (NECIA) Regional sea surface temps 6.5 deg F warmer (NECIA)
A1B Scenario Assumptions
Rising Waters
Observed Increases in Very Heavy
Precipitation (1958 to 2007)
Heavy downpours have increased; projected to increase further.
Projected Increase in Heat-Related Deaths in Chicago
Heat-related illnesses and deaths are projected to increase, especially in cities.
Earlier Spring
In 1965, Department of Agriculture planted lilacs in 72 Northeast locations
Used for appropriate timing of corn planting
Lilacs bloom two weeks earlier than in 1965
Rising Waters
Temperature increases Greater temperature changes in winter
Rivers in Northeastern have 20 fewer days of ice cover
No more ice harvesting industry on the Hudson
Warmer Weather, especially Winters
Rising Waters
In past three years, region experienced five 100 year flood events
Intense precipitation events doubled in 30 years
Changing salt front in Hudson may impact public drinking water
Flooding likely to encourage shoreline hardening as humans respond to climate change
Intense Rains
Rising Waters More Frequent Flooding
Scenarios Built on 2 Key Concepts
Rising Waters
Scenarios
Y = Character of preparations
X= Amount of preparation
Less use of natural systems
LotsLittle
More use of natural systems
Stagflation rules Give Rivers Room
Procrastination Blues
Nature Be Dammed
Consumer credit issues and federal budget deficit. Rising oil and corn prices
High unemployment: NYC fares poorly
Green tech is bright spot in regional economy
Little state/federal monies for engineered solutions
Tax breaks and land use regulation used as “carrots and sticks”
Development moves to higher ground (north in Hudson Valley)
Rising Waters
Stagflation Rules
Local climate will become more warm, wet, and wild.
Increases in extreme weather
Sea-level rise is serious long-term threat, but not likely to exceed a foot between now and 2030.
Capacity to adapt will depend on local land-use planning, new regulations of the flood plain, land protection, and smart infrastructure investments.
Rising Waters
Key Findings
FloodingSpring 2012
FloodingFall 2009
FloodingSpring 2011
Extreme WeatherScenario 3:Nature Be Dammed
Extreme Precipitation Event and Associated Area of Flooding
80 Response Options Evaluated Rising
Waters
Reduce minimum size of wetlands regulated by state
Distributed rain water systems :rain gardens
Create wildlife corridors via land bridges, etc.
Restore streams; revegetate banks
Rising Waters
Top Options across Scenarios
Improve community preparedness for extreme weather and local climate-change threats.
Prepare communities for climate change by incorporating impacts into land-use decisions
Guide future development out of flood-prone areas
Improve resilience of shorelines, natural systems, and critical infrastructure to impacts of extreme weather
Establish climate-change-adaptation funding
Apply cost-effective green technologies and use natural systems to reduce vulnerability of people and properties to flooding and heat waves
Conserve healthy forest, wetland, and river ecosystems as well as agricultural resources because they are vital to successful adaptation to climate change.
Rising Waters: Seven Recommendations
Five coalitions• Communications/disaster
planning• Sustainable Shorelines • Floodplain development• Adaptation funding• Greening Municipalities
Update plan in 2010 Measure results
Rising Waters
General Plan for Action
Community planning and preparedness for extreme weather. Examples:
Include climate change info in hazard mitigation plans Public access to cool buildings during heat waves Community outreach campaigns Partnership with
American Red Cross
Rising Waters
Identify sustainable methods for shoreline erosion control
Require state agencies to conduct flood audits
Remove incentives for non-sustainable shoreline management methods
Share best practices for fish friendly habitat in shoreline reconstruction
Rising Waters
Resilience of Shorelines
Benthic and LIDAR mapping Floodplain spatial planning; assess connectivity along 6
tributaries; Review regulatory incentives and viable strategic pathways What are the resources at risk? Wetlands, etc,
Overall goal: Slow down the waters; connect the floodplains
Rising Waters
Floodplain Protection
Fewer refugia
(spawning & rearing)
Humans build levees
etc. to protect
property
Degraded floodplains &
riparian areas
Inc. velocity & sediment
in river channels
Targets: Diadromous Fish
Climate Factor:Inc. in
amount & intensity of
precip.
Stress:Decreased recruitment
Fewer refugia
(spawning & rearing)
Humans build levees
etc. to protect
property
Degraded floodplains &
riparian areas
Inc. velocity & sediment
in river channels
Targets: Diadromous Fish
Climate Factor:Inc. in
amount & intensity of
precip.
Stress:Decreased recruitment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aw arenessof GlobalClimateChange
Aw arenessof Hudson
Valleyimpacts
Concernabout
HudsonValley
impacts
Aw arenessof GlobalClimateChange
Aw arenessof Hudson
Valleyimpacts
Concernabout
HudsonValley
impacts
Prior to Rising Waters Current
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
Rising Waters:
Preliminary Results: Participants
To Learn More:
Unquenchable: Robert Glennon
Heatstroke: Tony Barnosky Early Spring: Amy Seidl The Rising Sea: Pilkey and
Young
Rising Waters
“Noah was right. Let's get busy.”
Rising Waters
Nature.org/risingwaters
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