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“ Operationalizing Intelligence Across the Global Enterprise” LTG Michael T. Flynn. Global Megatrends – The Imperative for Change. A complex and uncertain future for a world transforming at an unprecedented rate …. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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UNCLASSIFIED
Between 2010 and 2030, world’s population will grow by more than a billion people (Almost all of that growth in the developing world)
Global Megatrends – The Imperative for Change
Technology
Economics
Resources
By 2035, global energy consumption will rise by 50 percent, with developing countries making up 84 percent of the demand
By 2025, the combined GDP of China & India will be bigger than that of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US put together
By 2020, the number of internet users will double to more than 4 billion (The fastest rate of growth in the developing world)
A complex and uncertain future for a world transforming at an unprecedented rate…
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Global Megatrends – Crisis is the New NormalA closer look at population and information technology
INF
O T
EC
HN
OL
OG
Y
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N
Increased connectivity gives enemies a platform and network without accountability
Wildcard and networked threats exert strategic influence despite limited resources
Development of disruptive technology outpaces our policies and ability to protect against attack
Data correlation, recall, and storage become just as important as analysis and collection
The network emerges as the new weapon system
Competition for food, water, and energy breeds conflict and social unrest
Overpopulation weakens local governance, security, and employment opportunity
Unstable governments struggle to provide for their people and empower transnational groups
The unpredictable shifting security landscape redefines the international balance of power
Sprawling urban areas emerge as the dominant terrain
By 2020, more than 500 cities with one million or more people
By 2020, more than half the world’s population connected to the internet
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UNCLASSIFIED
Statistics taken from US Census Bureau and the United Nations
~700
8B
1.7B
~10B
632
7416
1B
3
2.6B
Global Population
(In Billions)
Number of Cities Over 1 Million
1800
205019
00
1950
2010
2025
6.7B
442
In 2008, half the world’s population
lived in urban areas
2008
Megatrend: An Urbanized World
UNCLASSIFIED
Information Technologies & the InternetRapid advances in communications, transportation, and information set the stage
Storage
Storage & Interface
Storage, Interface & Analysis
Storage, Interface , Analysis, Ingest & Collaborate
70s-80s80s – 90s
90s – 00s
00s - Present20XX?
Virtual Cloud, Information/NetworkConvergence
5
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•Acknowledge the unpredictable nature of the operating environment•Prioritize building a new type of intelligence workforce•Develop tools to understand a data-rich environment•Build agility and flexibility to rapidly shift resources•Expand the warning function to the edge•Understand impacts of social media on the intelligence collection system•Partner for advantage with non-traditional partners
We must adapt to a complex spectrum of instability and uncertainty
Global Megatrends – So What
7
UNCLASSIFIED
2000
2014
China is the top supplier of goods to this country
China is the second or third supplier of goods to this country
In 2014, China exports goods to
69.9% of all countriesIn 2000, China exported goods to
9.7% of all countries
China’s global supply increase
8
UNCLASSIFIED
2004
Islamic Terrorist Groups
18 Total Countries/Territories with Islamic Terrorist Groups Present
21 Total Islamic Terrorist Groups 2014
24 Total Countries/Territories with Islamic Terrorist Groups Present
41 Total Islamic Terrorist Groups
These maps depict the number and primary areas of operation of Islamic terrorist groups in 2004 and 2014, as designated by U.S. State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list. These maps only depict the geographic regions from Africa to South Asia, and do not include North or South America.
9
Highly Agile Operational Intelligence
Interdependent NetworksPartner Nation,
Service & Interagency Integration
Intel
Law Enforcement
Military
Mission
Support
IC A
naly
sis
IC Collection
Polic
ymak
ers
Intelligence
Warfighters
Security through Partnerships• Appropriate laws, policies, funding, and authorities• National-level security priorities• Multilateral partnerships
• Communicate military priorities• Establish intel requirements
• Task organize to fuse analysts, collectors, and mission support
• Strengthen partnerships
• Provide global coverage• Prioritize the right assets against the greatest threats
• Build Multi-INT assessments• Understand the environment• Collaborate outside your office,
agency, and country
• Capitalize on IT developments
• Gain efficiencies thrupartnered logistics
• Partner with allies for joint, intel-driven ops
• Increase foreign rotations and training opportunities
• Matrixed Ops/Intel centers work best
• Improve feedback loop• Support LE/MIL
by providing operational opportunities
UNCLASSIFIED
Verify
ProportionDepth
Quality
Produce
BREAKING NEWSDECISION MAKERS
Decision Making in the 21st Century(Battle Rhythm in The Information Age)
BlogsI-Reporter Twitter
11UNCLASSIFIED
Intelligence Cycle Disseminate
Social Media
Social Networks
ImmediateSensational
Real-time news feed to mobile devices
AnalyzeCollect
Traditional News Cycle
EVENTUnfilteredImmense data
Unconfirmed
The disconnect between the speed of information and the intelligence cycle
Who gets there first?
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ISR Today: What It Looks Like
Rivet Joint
JSTARSPredator
Global Hawk
U-2 AIR
LANDEP-3Guardrail
Sensor Suite
AF-DCGS
National SIGINT
National IMINT
GPS Commercial IMINT
CYBER
OUR CHALLENGE: Processing, exploiting, and sharingintegrated ISR bulk data in an international coalition environment
SPACE
MARITIME
12
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ISR Today: How It Works
Principles• Speed• Trust • Transparency • New Partners • Centralize SA • Decentralize DM
FIND
FIX
ANALYZE EXPLOIT
FINISH
UNDERSTAND
OPS / INTEL FUSION
MAIN EFFORT
C2 \ PED \ Partner Interoperability \ Joint ISRAutomation \ Cross Domain Access \ Shared Architecture
What I’ve Learned: What We Need
With no doctrine / no guidance…
(1) Constantly task organize to achieve your purpose (2) Develop a culture of inclusion and transparency(3) Must have a widely understood strategy (4) Build / sustain a disciplined battle rhythm (5) Centralize situational awareness / decentralize decision making (6) Trust in team (7) Constant leader involvement
Maintain an offensive mindset…Change must be driven, not just shared…seek opportunities, have the intellect to see it and the courage to take it”
Key Challenges
•Islamic Extremism & Volatility in Middle East
•Russian Revanchism•Cyber Threats•Iran & North Korea Disruptive Behavior
•Rise of Aggressive China•Failed & Failing States
Global Threats and Challenges to 2025
ArcticTerritorial Disputes
North Korea -South Korea
Crisis
South China Sea Tensions
SE AsiaTensions
Russia-”Privileged Zone” Tensions
Yemen Instability
Armenia-Azerbaijan
Crisis
Sunni/Shia/Kurd
Competition
Terrorist Challenges
Terrorist Challenge
Somalia Conflict
Sudan Conflict
Terrorist Challenge
Sub-Saharan AfricaWidespread Potential Humanitarian Crises,
Governance Crises
Piracy
TCOs Destabilizing Governance
Libya Internal Tensions
Egypt Internal Tensions
Cuba - Instability
Haiti Crisis
PakistanInternal Tensions
Colombia Insurgency
VenezuelaInstability
Central AsiaInterstate
Friction
Peru Insurgency
Terrorist Challenge
BalkansInstability
AfghanistanContinuing Insurgency
Terrorist Challenge
Israeli-Palestinian
Tensions
Peacekeeping India/Pakistan
IranRegional Threats, Nuclear
North KoreaRegime Collapse
China-Taiwan Crisis
TCO Violence
Cyber Attack on Critical U.S.
InfrastructureTerrorist WMD
Attack
UNCLASSIFIED
EU Integration
Frictions
Large Majority of Crises Stem from Weak Governance
Relationship to U.S. & Allies’ Interests May Not Be Immediately Apparent
Crisis Containment/Resolution May Require US Forces Involvement to Prevent, Shape, Win
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China-Japan Crisis
China InternalTensions
“A broad set of enduring, highly asymmetric, unconventional, novel and indirect challenges…”Dr. Michael G. Vickers, Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, June 3, 20149/11/2014 17
Click to edit Master title styleUNCLASS/FOUO
AMERICA’S ARMY:THE STRENGTH OF THE NATION Global Threats and Challenges to 2025
Russia vs.
Ukraine
Islamic Extremism & Volatility
KoreaDisruptive
State
Aggressive China
Overlapping “Playbooks”
IranDisruptive
State
Russia vs. Ukraine•Proxies, SOF, Influence Ops•Exploiting Identity Cleavages•Force
Demonstrations /”Sabre Rattling”
•Exploiting NATO Divisions•Create “Controlled
Instability”
Islamic Extremism •Multiple Forces, Militias•Proxies, Advisors •Selective CW Use•Mixed Conventional vs.
Irregular Forces• Improvised Weapons•Complex International Play
Iran – Disruptive State•System of Proxies•Guardian of Shia•Swarm tactics•Ballistic Missiles/GLCMs for
strategic influence•Conventional, Unconventional, &
Irregular forces & strategy
China vs. Neighbors• Incremental and Intimidating
Assertion of Territorial Claims•Force Bilateral Situations•Use Non-Military Assets with
Military in Overwatch•Control ROE to Minimize Risk of
Escalation
Korea – Disruptive State•Periodic Provocations incl
lethal attacks•Outmoded but Large &
Deadly Conventional Force•SOF, Missiles for Deterrence
& Revenue•WMD for Deterrence•Complex International Role
Common Adversary Themes•Stay Under Threshold for U.S. Military Action•Achieve Results without Decisive military Engagement
•Indirect Strategies across full ROMO•States Maintain Large Armed Forces•Psychological/Influence Warfare•Play the International Environment•Pursue Permanent Warfare
Global Conditions•Weak/Poor Governance•Global Integration (Economic & Informational)
•Predominance of US (incl Allies) in Global Military Reach
•Evolving Legal Structures•Costs & Risks of War
Non Linear Dynamic Use of the Elements of Power and Activities Overlap to Achieve Political Objectives
Global Threats and Challenges to 2025
UNCLASSIFIED
Click to edit Master title styleUNCLASS/FOUO
AMERICA’S ARMY:THE STRENGTH OF THE NATION Overlapping “Playbooks”
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