1 July 15, 2014. Auction Industry Leaders, Class III, Spokane, WA
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- 1 July 15, 2014
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- Auction Industry Leaders, Class III, Spokane, WA
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- 3 Your Homework The wholesale market was strong and active and
climbing in April when we last met. Has it turned, when did it turn
and by how much? Relate this to values, consignment and conversion.
Do you think the wholesale market is better or worse today than one
year ago in 2013: values and volumes of offerings? Gas prices are
getting the headlines. What do you feel they will peak at? What
effects/reactions do you expect?
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- The Broad View A solid spring: Strong tax season activity Later
beginning of strength: Winter delayed Lasted longer on the
calendar: Solid through 2 nd week of May Is the market better or
worse?
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- Most recent market changes
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- Previous month market changes
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- Previous year ago period market changes
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- Better than previous 3 month period
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- Year ago 3 month period
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- Better than annual forecast
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- Year ago 12 month market changes
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- Is the Market Better or Worse? This Month, Quarter or Year over
Year? In each comparable period The answer is lower depreciation
today: Except May to June 2014
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- NAAA physical auction volume: 2013 marked the second
consecutive year of increase in unit volume since 2007. The number
of units entered increased 4.3 percent to 15.2 million. The number
sold grew 4.2 percent to 8.2 million for a conversion rate of 54.2
percent. Dealer-consigned vehicles represented the largest number
of units sold at 58.8 percent. Financial/fleet accounted for 34.3
percent. Supply Levels Growing
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- NAAA physical auction volume: Increased consignment and sales
volume 2013 over 2012 Expect the same increase in 2014 Total new
sales levels 15.6M in 2013 16.1M in 2014 projected 16.5M in 2015
projected Off lease increasing Part of trade-ins: just know when
and sometimes where Supply Levels Growing
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- High penetration of lease in New England Creates a tough
remarketing area Online and Upstream to distribute the volume
Transportation services Extra Reconditioning: Front Line Ready EOT
Oversupply?
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- 2011: -7.7% 2012: -12.4% 2013: -12.8% 2014: -13.5% projected
2015: 15.5% Annual Depreciation Trends
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- 3 segments increased during June MPT, MVC & FPT show
strength Greater than traditional depreciation: All Cars, mostly
small 14 increased in last month of 1 st Qtr
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- Solid Annual Market Changes Only the Prestige Luxury Cars over
pre-recession annual depreciation 7 under 10% depreciation: All
truck related
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- End of 1 st Qtr Results If history repeats, second qtr could be
better. Must overcome strong March. 1 st Qtr Results
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- End of 2 nd Qtr Results History did repeat, second qtr was
better as spring market extended into May. -5.2% -3.3% 2 nd Qtr
Results
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- Truck Market Continues Better Depreciation 2 nd Qtr market
changes
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- 1 st Qtr market changes Cars and Trucks almost identical change
for quarter
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- Mazda activity Spring market seasonality is prevalent in the
compact cars
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- Mazda activity Mazda5 also affected by the spring market
strength
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- Mazda activity As the volumes have increased the seasonality
spikes have leveled out somewhat
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- Mazda activity CX-7 closing gap to segment in 2014
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- Mazda activity Smoother movement in this segment in 2013 &
2014
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- Land Rover activity Model fairing better than segment in
2014
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- BMW activity Increased supply of 2010 EOT in current wholesale
market? Mix in segment varied
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- Toyota Activity Spring market seasonality is prevalent in the
compact cars Every March there is a climb
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- Toyota Activity Combination of Hybrid, Electric and Plug-in
reached 3.7%: Wards
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- Toyota Activity 2014 brings better retention in relation to
segment average
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- Seasonality variations
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- Gas prices Heading up!
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- Gas prices $.21 over year ago Less volatility in 2014, but
lower overall points Will the current price trend continue?
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- Gas prices Notice the level pricing of diesel throughout the
year: Does this encourage more diesel products, car and truck?
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- What do you expect? Are there certain concerns? Any additional
questions or comments? Heading to the 3rd quarter Is your mobile
app setup?
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- 41 Set Up Academy Members w/Mobile App? Complementary mobile
app for each of you throughout the Auction Academy program. Auto
and specialty markets: iPhone or Android
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- 42 Set Up Academy Members w/Mobile App? Values
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- 43 Just call or email Ricky Beggs VP, Managing Editor
770.533.5221 w, 404.915.4215 c Rbeggs@BlackBookUSA.com Tim West,
VP, North American Auction Director 770.533.5230 w, 404.915.2428 c
Twest@BlackBookUSA.com Questions?