2 nd AIACC Asia and the Pacific Regional Workshop A Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation ( ADB...

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2nd AIACC Asia and the Pacific Regional Workshop

A Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation

(ADB Technical Assistance to the Pacific)

Presented by:Edy Brotoisworo

Asian Development Bank

• Climate Change Adaptation Program for the Pacific (CLIMAP)

IMPLEMENTATION: Asian Development Bank

IN COOPERATION WITH: Government of FSMGovernment of the Cook Islands

SOURCE OF FUNDING: Canadian Government under the Canadian Cooperation Fund for Climate Change – GHG abatement, carbon sequestration and adaptation

CONSULTANT: Maunsell Ltd, in association with: International Global Change Institute (IGCI)

Objectives: mainstreaming climate adaptation through integrated risk reduction (CCIRR) into development planning in selected PDMCs and ADB operations

Activities: a. ADB Operations

b. Pilot activities (Cook Islands & FSM)

CLIMATE SYSTEM Extreme Events Variability Change

TIME

Human Activities

Consequences(Characterize

&Evaluate)

Likelihood(Characterize

&Evaluate)

Reduce Riskthrough

Disaster Reductionand Adaptation

Raise Risk Thresholdthrough

Adaptation

Reduce Riskthrough

Greenhouse Gas

Mitigation

UnacceptableRisks

AcceptableRisks

Learn fromExperience

Responding to Climate Variability & Change

Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years

0.6 + 0.2oC.

S e a L e ve l a t P o h n p e i (1 9 7 4 -2 0 0 3 )

0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 9 7 4 - 2 0 0 3

Sea

Leve

l Rel

ativ

e to

Dat

am (c

m)

.Sea L evel at Pohnpei

(1974-2003)

How much warmer will it be?

Increase in mean temperature by 2100

3oF

By how much will sea level rise?

0.5 ft

lowest emissions

1.3 ft

typical emissions

2.8 ft

highest emissions

1978 2001

Hourly Sea Level, Pohnpei40 inches

mm

Past Future

Raro Sea Level 1977-2002

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1

23

8

47

5

71

2

94

9

118

6

14

23

16

60

18

97

21

34

23

71

26

08

28

45

30

82

33

19

35

56

37

93

40

30

42

67

45

04

47

41

49

78

52

15

54

52

56

89

59

26

61

63

64

00

66

37

68

74

711

1

73

48

75

85

78

22

80

59

82

96

85

33

87

70

90

07

92

44

1977 - 2002

Se

a L

ev

el

Sea Level – Rarotonga (1977 – 2002)PamDec1997

SallyJan 1987

ValDec 1991

GeneMar 1992

PeniFeb 1990

How much wetter will it be?

Pohnpei Precipitation 1960 - 2100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2040

2042

2044

2046

Dai

ly R

ainf

all (

mm

)

Past Future

Daily Rainfall 1960-2100

12 inches

Rarotonga Aero Rainfall

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan 1929 - Feb 2004

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

Daily Rainfall – Rarotonga (1929 – 2003)

Consequences for Human HealthDengue - Rarotonga 1991-2003

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan-

91

Jul-9

1

Jan-

92

Jul-9

2

Jan-

93

Jul-9

3

Jan-

94

Jul-9

4

Jan-

95

Jul-9

5

Jan-

96

Jul-9

6

Jan-

97

Jul-9

7

Jan-

98

Jul-9

8

Jan-

99

Jul-9

9

Jan-

00

Jul-0

0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Nu

mb

er

of

Pe

op

le I

nfe

cte

d

FSM Case Studies

Reflecting Climate Risks in Infrastructure Design and Local

Level Decision MakingDemonstrated by

“Climate Proofing” infrastructure and otherDevelopment projects

Reflecting Climate Risks in Landuse Planning, Regulations and Permitting

Demonstrated by“Climate Proofing” such instruments as

the Building Code, EIA Regulations and Procedures, And Health Regulations

Reflecting Climate Risks in National Development Planning

Demonstrated by“Climate Proofing”

National Strategic Development Plans

Immediate, Project Level

Long Term, N

ational Level

“Cimate Proofed” Development

Enabling Environment

CCAIRR Promotes Integration……

…….Mainstreaming

“Climate Proofing” is shortand for

reducing, to acceptable levels, the risks due to climate

variability and change, including extreme events

Climate Proofing FSM’s National Strategic Development Plan

• “……… Infrastructure designed, located, built and maintained to avoid unacceptable risks to infrastructure associated with natural hazards, including weather and climate extremes, variability and change.”

• “……… Conduct risk assessments at state level and develop national- and state-level guidelines to ensure risks to infrastructure development projects are identified and addressed in a cost effective manner at the design stage.”

National Strategic

Development Plan

How will Climate Change Reduce Project Sustainability?

Pohnpei Precipitation 1960 - 2100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2040

2042

2044

2046

Dai

ly R

ainf

all (

mm

)

Past Future

Daily Precipitation for Kosrae

1960-2050

300 mm

Roading Project: Kosrae (FSM)Design Life: 50 yr

Design Rainfall: Hourly rainfall with return period of 25 yr

Used: 177 mm2000: 190 mm2050: 254 mm

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Ho

url

y R

ain

fall

(in

che

s)

2000: 190 mm (7.5 in)

2050: 254 mm (10 in)

Climate Change will Increase Road Maintenance Costs

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Years from Construction

Ac

cu

mu

late

d M

ain

ten

an

ce

Co

sts

(U

S$

10

00

)

No Climate Change

With Climate Change

How can Project Sustainability be Maintained Despite Climate

Change?

“Climate Proofing” is shortand for

reducing, to acceptable levels, the risks due to climate

variability and change, including extreme events

Costs (2004 $US)

• Current Design

Road Surface $1,254,414

Drainage Works $ 640,233

Total $1,894,647

• Climate Proofed Design

Road Surface $1,254,414

Drainage Works $1,151,397

Total $2,405,811

Construction Costs:RS4 (6.6 km section to be built)

IncrementalCost

$511,164

Cost-Benefit Analysis:RS4 Section Yet To Be Built

Net Present Values:Current Design• No climate change $4,475,200• With climate change $7,803,064Climate Proofed Design• With climate change $4,986,364

Internal Rate of Return 11%

Costs (2004 US$)

• To be built section (6.6 km)

• US$ 77,449 per km

• Built section (3.2 km)

• US$ 242,558 per km

Incremental Costof Climate Proofing the Road

Higher costs if climate

proofing is retroactive

Will Addressing Climate Change: Increase project costs?

Reduce project viability?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 10 20 30 40 50

Years from Construction

$US

mil

lio

n

Accumulated Costs – RS4 (to be built)

Climate Proofed

CurrentDesign

Climate Change will ReduceCommunity Sustainability

SokehsFederated States of Micronesia

Costs and Benefits of ReducingFlooding in Sapwohn Village

Adaptation Cost Reduction in damage costs No climate change 110,588 533,475 With climate change 390,155 2,161,531 Increment 279,567 1,628,056

Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

Total damage costs for period No Adaptation With Adaptation Without climate change 5,543,729 5,010,254 With climate change 12,679,321 10,517,790

Damage Costs

What are the Implications for Government and ADB

Operations?

Climate Proofing the Strategic

Development Plan

The Adaptation Mainstreaming Guidelines

MainstreamingPrinciples

Enhancingthe

Enabling Environment

Harmonizingwith

SustainableDevopment

Some Key Points……….• Despite international efforts to reduce greeenhouse gas

emissions, the need to adapt to climate change is inevitable

• Climate change will manifest largely as changes in the frequency and consequences of extreme events, rather than as long-term trends in average conditions

• Adaptation should be based on effective and efficient risk reduction strategies

• Adaptation costs (including incremental costs) and benefits can be quantified. Typically adaptation is a cost effective intervention, especially when implemented at the design stage of a project. Retrospective adaptation incurs far greater costs

Some Key Points……….

• Requires integration (“mainstreaming”) of adaptation, across time scales and three levels:– National policy: National Strategic Development Plan– Sector policy: Landuse planning, regulation &

enforcement– Project planning and implementation

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

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