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2006
Paul VanRaden, John Cole, and George WiggansPaul VanRaden, John Cole, and George Wiggans
Animal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MDpaul@aipl.arsusda.gov
2006 Net Merit Revision2006 Net Merit Revision
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (2) P.M. VanRaden200
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Stillbirth EvaluationsStillbirth Evaluations
Percent stillbirths in first-calf heifers (%SBH), similar to calving ease (%DBH) Sire SB: 12.0% +- 1.5% Daughter SB: 12.0% +- 2.5% Report median and mode or mean?
Range 8 – 17% sire, 6 – 27% daughter Fewer stillbirths (avg 5%) in later parities Number of records half of calving ease Display 4 traits or only an index?
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (3) P.M. VanRaden200
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Stillbirth DataStillbirth Data
Alive Dead Died Usable
Parity 1 2 3 Records
1 88.0% 11.3% .7% 1,505,826
2+ 95.0% 3.9% 1.1% 4,202,200
Usable Records
5,384,029 348,677 29,320 5,762,026
Stillbirth Score
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (4) P.M. VanRaden200
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Stillbirth Genetic TrendStillbirth Genetic Trend
10
11
12
13
14
15
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Birth Year
Sti
llbir
th P
erce
nt
DSB
SSB
DSB = Daughter (cow’s) contribution to stillbirth rate.
SSB = Service sire’s contribution to stillbirth rate.
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (5) P.M. VanRaden200
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Calving Ability IndexesCalving Ability Indexes
Calve Ease Stillbirth Mod-el
Total MeritSire Dtr Sire Dtr
DEU 19 26 26 29 AM 7%
NLD 33 17 33 17 SM 4%
CHE 12 12 38 38 AM 0%
NOR 0 34 33 33 SM 3%
proposed
USA 25 15 15 45 SM 6%
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (6) P.M. VanRaden200
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Economic AssumptionsEconomic Assumptions
Newborn calf value• $450 for females• $150 for males
Expenses per difficult birth (4 or 5)• $75 labor and veterinary• $100 reduced milk yield• $75 reduced fertility and longevity• 1.5% chance of cow death ($1800)
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (7) P.M. VanRaden200
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Stillbirth Correlations from InterbullStillbirth Correlations from InterbullGenetic correlations with USAGenetic correlations with USA
Sire Daughter
CHE 0.47 0.56
DNK 0.66 0.82
FIN 0.64 0.88
NLD 0.60 0.72
SWE 0.61 0.88
Correlations estimated using inflated daughter counts. Participation in MACE will wait until November.
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (8) P.M. VanRaden200
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Milk, Fat, and Protein PricesMilk, Fat, and Protein PricesFederal Order Class III (Cheese)Federal Order Class III (Cheese)
Year Milk Fat Protein Volume SCS
2000 9.74 1.25 1.69 .0030 .14
2001 13.10 1.85 1.96 .0075 .17
2002 10.42 1.19 1.97 .0035 .14
2003 11.42 1.21 2.38 .0005 .16
2004 15.39 2.05 2.60 .0042 .20
2005 14.05 1.71 2.46 .0035 .18
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (9) P.M. VanRaden200
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Proposed and Current PricesProposed and Current PricesNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid MeritNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid Merit
Year Milk Fat Prot Volume SCS
2006 NM 12.70 1.50 1.95 1.75 .18
2006 CM 12.70 1.50 2.80 -.95 .18
2006 FM 12.70 1.50 .57 5.74 .18
2003 NM 12.70 1.30 2.30 1.25 .18
2003 CM 12.70 1.30 3.00 -.85 .18
2003 FM 12.70 1.30 1.00 5.15 .18
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (10) P.M. VanRaden200
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Proposed Net MeritProposed Net MeritRelative economic weightsRelative economic weights
Trait 2006 2003 Trait 2006 2003
Protein 23 33 SCS -9 -9
Fat 23 22 Udder 6 7
Milk 0 0 Feet/Leg 3 4
PL 17 11 Size -4 -3
DPR 9 7 Calving Ability
6 4
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (11) P.M. VanRaden200
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Correlations with Longevity Correlations with Longevity (New PL genetic correlations and difference from previous PL)(New PL genetic correlations and difference from previous PL)
Ctry DPR1 PL PL dif Ctry DPR PL PL dif
IRL .66 .78 .07 ITA .44 .73 .00
SWE .64 .76 -.05 DNK .42 .86 .03
GBR .58 .86 .03 NLD .38 .83 .03
CAN .54 .92 .03 CHE .35 .75 .03
BEL .52 .83 .01 AUS .34 .69 .02
NZL .51 .69 .03 FIN .28 .70 .06
DEU .46 .85 .00 FRA .27 .70 .03
ESP .46 .77 .05 ISR .22 .48 .091 Correlation of US daughter pregnancy rate PTA with foreign longevity PTA (>10 herds in both countries)
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (12) P.M. VanRaden200
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Culling EmphasisCulling Emphasis
Relative emphasis % on first-parity trait
YearMilk Yield
Fat Yield
Prot. Yield SCS DO CE FS
1988 100 82 99 -19 -18 - 8 26
1992 100 76 101 -25 -23 - 9 24
1996 100 74 100 -26 -30 - 9 23
2000 100 78 95 -33 -74 -15 33
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (13) P.M. VanRaden200
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February 2006 ChangeFebruary 2006 Change
Foreign bull PTA DPR• Predict fertility from other traits• Methods very similar to multi−trait PL• Foreign correlations assumed = domestic• MACE longevity, yield get highest weight
Results for top 100 NM$ foreign bulls• PTA mean was −.3, now −.7• REL mean was 28%, now 40%• REL would increase 7% for domestic bulls
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (14) P.M. VanRaden200
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Changes for MayChanges for May
ERCR computed at AIPL
Milking speed for Brown Swiss
Rear legs / rear view (BS, GU)
Brown Swiss calving ease MACE• POSTPONED or CANCELLED
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (15) P.M. VanRaden200
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Changes expected for AugustChanges expected for August
Stillbirth evaluation• Include in calving ability index
New definition of productive life• Credit for longer lactations• Lower correlation with fertility• Standard deviation 1.43 times larger
Update NM$ economic values
NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (16) P.M. VanRaden200
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Changes expected Nov or FebChanges expected Nov or Feb
Multi-breed / crossbred evaluation
Recommended