2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits

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2010 Commercial Space 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Transportation Forecast for Non-

Geosynchronous OrbitsGeosynchronous OrbitsPresentation to COMSTAC

May 19, 2010

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Contents and PurposeContents and Purpose• Contents of the 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-

Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) Developed by the FAA/AST with help from the Futron Corporation Projects global commercial launch demand for 2010-2019 All nongeosynchronous orbits including

• Low Earth orbit• Medium Earth orbit• Elliptical orbits• External orbits such as to the Moon or other solar system destinations

Commercial definition:• Internationally competed launches• Licensed by the FAA/AST

• Purpose of the NGSO forecast To help the FAA/AST plan for its commercial launch licensing and promotional

role To raise public awareness of the scope and trajectory of commercial spaceflight

demand

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Basic MethodologyBasic Methodology• This report is based on research and discussions with:

Industry including: • Satellite service providers• Satellite manufacturers• Launch service providers

Government offices Independent analysts

• The forecast tracks progress for publicly-announced satellites and considers a number of factors, some examples:

Financing Regulatory developments Spacecraft manufacturing and launch services contracts Investor confidence Competition from space and terrestrial sectors Overall economic conditions

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Commercial NGSO Launch Industry MapCommercial NGSO Launch Industry Map

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Satellite and Launch DemandSatellite and Launch Demand

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• Demand Drivers Large deployments of telecommunications constellations A steady demand for launch of international science and other satellites The new and promising sector of orbital facility assembly and services A small but steady launch demand for commercial remote sensing satellites

Total Satellites: 262 Total Launches: 119

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Historical vs. Forecasted LaunchesHistorical vs. Forecasted Launches

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2009 vs. 2010 Forecasts2009 vs. 2010 Forecasts

• Primary changes in market demand: Delayed timetables for deploying large telecommunications constellations. Large constellation deployment plans that leverage a greater number of launches than expected

(ORBCOMM); or fewer (Iridium) Delay in the initial NASA COTS demonstration flights and the extension of ISS CRS beyond 2016

also contributed to the difference. • 7

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International Science and Other International Science and Other Launch History and ForecastLaunch History and Forecast

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• Characteristics Stable scientific demand from national space programs Largest source of demand for small launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) Four launches per year average during forecast period

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Commercial Remote Sensing Commercial Remote Sensing Launch History and ForecastLaunch History and Forecast

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• Characteristics Growing demand for commercial remote sensing products Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) Demand for under two launches per year average during forecast period

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TelecommunicationsTelecommunicationsLaunch History and ForecastLaunch History and Forecast

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• Characteristics Large deployments of telecommunications constellations Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) Majority of demand occurs in the first five years of the forecast, followed by minimal demand

between cycles

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OFAS Launch History and Forecast OFAS Launch History and Forecast

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• Characteristics NASA Commercial Resupply Services contracts provide a foundation of demand Demand for four launches per year average during forecast period Successful development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could unlock increased launch

demand in this sector

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Emerging Markets That Could Impact Emerging Markets That Could Impact Future DemandFuture Demand

• Commercial Human Orbital Spaceflight Development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could generate new launch

demand and possibly lead to the deployment of private space stations that require a large number of human and cargo supply flights.

Potential demand from NASA, Bigelow, Excalibur, etc.• Orbital Microsatellite Launch

The emergence of a low-cost, reliable microsatellite launch vehicle may increase launch demand as satellite operators would likely move away from multi-manifesting to dedicated microsatellite launch systems.

• Exploration and Technology Demonstration Lunar exploration, science, and development may be spurred by private space

competitions and government use of commercial launch system.

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UncertaintyUncertainty• Fourteen sources of certainty examined, examples:

Financial uncertainty:• U.S. national and global economy• Investor confidence• Corporate mergers• Terrestrial competition

Political Uncertainty:• Policy and regulations• Increase/decrease in government purchase of commercial satellite services• Government missions open/closed to commercial launch competition

Technical Uncertainty:• Launch failure• Satellite manufacturing delay• Satellite failure in orbit• Introduction of innovative/disruptive technology

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EndEnd

• Questions?

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Backup – Launch Demand by Mass ClassBackup – Launch Demand by Mass Class

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Backup – Forecast ComparisonsBackup – Forecast Comparisons

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Backup – Average vs. Maximum Launches Backup – Average vs. Maximum Launches per Forecastper Forecast

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Backup - Supporting DataBackup - Supporting Data

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