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2020 Automation Market Update
Alex Shikany
Vice President – Membership & Business Intelligence
Association for Advancing Automation
MFG Outlook
Robotics Vision Motion AI
Agenda
Manufacturing Outlook
Survey from 4th Quarter 2018 Survey from 4th Quarter 2019
Source: 2019 Fourth Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey; www.nam.org/outlook/
Manufacturing Outlook
Source: 2019 Fourth Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey; www.nam.org/outlook/
Manufacturing Outlook
Source: 2019 Fourth Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey; www.nam.org/outlook/
Manufacturing Outlook
Source: 2019 Fourth Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey; www.nam.org/outlook/
68.2%
60.4%
56.9%
22.0%
16.5%
65.1%
18.5%
21.4%
37.9%
4.4%
Manufacturing Outlook
Source: 2019 Fourth Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey; www.nam.org/outlook/
Manufacturing PMI
Source: IHS Markit, ISM & Advisor Perspectives; www.advisorperspectives.com
Tech Trends in Robotics
Mobility
Vision
Gripping
AI
Opening doors to new robotics applications
Mobility Applications
• Autonomously mobile bases
• Onboard Intelligence Systems
• Use computer vision and sensors
• Can include robot arms for
material handling
Presented by:
www.robotics.org/AMR
New AMR Conference
Source: IFR World Robotics 2018
Professional Service Robots (Logistics, Field, Agriculture)
2018: 165,300 units (+32%)
+21% per year (2019-2021)
Domestic / Household Robots (Vacuums, Lawnmowers)
2018: 7.5 million units (+23%)
+31% per year (2019-2021)
Entertainment Robots (Toys, Leisure)
2018: 2.8 million units (+20%)
+12% per year (2019-2021)
Mobile “Industrial” Robots are
Represented in this Category
Mobile Robot Market is Growing Rapidly
NA Jan. – Sep. Results23,894Units Ordered
5% Growth
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
F9 2010 F9 2011 F9 2012 F9 2013 F9 2014 F9 2015 F9 2016 F9 2017 F9 2018 F9 2019
Robot Orders by Industry (North America, Jan-Sep, 2010-2019)
All Other Industries
Metals
Life Sciences
Plastics and Rubber
Semiconductor & Electronics
Food & Consumer Goods
Automotive Component
Automotive
Source: RIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.robotics.org
NA Jan. – Sep. Industry Growth
-10%
-6%
-5%
0%
0%
4%
15%
47%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Semi & Electronics/Photonics
Metals
All Other Industries
Automotive Component
Life Sciences/Pharma/Biomed
Food & Consumer Goods
Plastics & Rubber
Automotive OEM
NA January – September 2019 Order Growth (Units, YoY)
Source: RIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.robotics.org
NA – Jan. – Sep. Auto vs. Non-Auto
4,614
7,202
10,449 9,244
13,690 14,528
16,617
18,490
11,830 13,312
4,992 6,414 5,914 6,487
7,545 7,899 7,368 8,804
10,878 10,582
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
F9 2010 F9 2011 F9 2012 F9 2013 F9 2014 F9 2015 F9 2016 F9 2017 F9 2018 F9 2019
Robot Orders: Auto vs. Non-Auto (North America, January-September 2010-2019)
Automotive Non-Automotive Linear (Automotive) Linear (Non-Automotive)
Source: RIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.robotics.org
North America - IndustriesEst. 31,144
Units Ordered+5% Growth
Source: RIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.robotics.org
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
Robot Orders by Industry (North America, ANNUAL, 2010-2019)
All Other Industries
Metals
Life Sciences
Plastics & Rubber
Semiconductor & Electronics
Food & Consumer Goods
Automotive Component
Automotive
Global Robotics Sales Forecast
Source: IFR, World Robotics 2019
Vision + Imaging
ARTHOS Vision Index
Source: Arthos.de
M&A Still Prevalent
Source: Arthos.de
M&A Still Prevalent (Cont.)
Source: Arthos.de
Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues
Source: WSTS
PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX)
Source: PHLX SOX Index, Yahoo Finance
Semiconductor Investment
Woodside Capital Partnerswww.woodsidecap.com
First Nine Month Comparisons (Thousands USD)2018 2019 Raw Change Raw Growth
Cameras $167,159 $151,171 -$15,988 -9.6%Lighting $54,993 $54,114 -$878 -1.6%Optics $31,863 $32,788 $926 2.9%Imaging Boards $29,907 $29,110 -$797 -2.7%Software $14,919 $15,380 $461 3.1%MV Components $298,841 $282,563 -$16,277 -5.4%
ASMV $1,522,185 $1,446,046 -$76,138 -5.0%Smart Cameras $341,019 $333,137 -$7,881 -2.3%Total MV Systems $1,863,203 $1,779,184 -$84,019 -4.5%
Other MV $6,341 $6,203 -$138 -2.2%
Total Fin Tran $2,168,385 $2,067,950 -$100,434 -4.6%
North American Machine Vision Market
Source: AIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.visiononline.org
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020*
Machine Vision Sales (Components + Systems + Other, North America, Thousands USD)
-4% +5%
North American Machine Vision Market
Source: AIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.visiononline.org
Machine Vision Market Drivers
Source: Global M&A Partners
Osaro
Motion Control & Motors
Motion Control & Motor Markets
Source: MCMA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.motioncontrolonline.org
$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
$800.0
$900.0
$1,000.0
Total Reported Market – Quarterly (Millions USD)
Motion Control & Motor Markets
Source: MCMA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.motioncontrolonline.org
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
$4,000.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020*
Total Reported Market
~0% 2-3%
Motion Controllers
Source: MCMA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.motioncontrolonline.org
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
3/12 Rate of Change
Electronic Drives
Source: MCMA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.motioncontrolonline.org
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
3/12 Rate of Change
Motors
Source: MCMA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.motioncontrolonline.org
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
3/12 Rate of Change
Actuators & Mechanical Systems
Source: MCMA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.motioncontrolonline.org
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
3/12 Rate of Change
AI + IOT Survey
•THE CHALLENGE
• A New Beat For the Factory
• AI + IoT are already factory accelerators (at least for some)
• But what is required to accelerate the accelerators?
• Last 2 years – capturing moments in the real world to answer that question.
37 Faith McCreary & Irene Petrick | ACCELERATE – AI, IOT, and a New Beat for the Factory I © 2019 Intel Corporation I All rights reserved.
38 Faith McCreary & Irene Petrick | ACCELERATE – AI, IOT, and a New Beat for the Factory I © 2019 Intel Corporation I All rights reserved.
“Lorem Ipsum Lorem Ipsum
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- Whoever, said it really
83% Companies Planned to Invest But …FUTURE IN MOTION
TOP PLANNED TECHNOLOGY
INVESTMENTS IN NEXT 2-3 YEARS
51% Artificial intelligence
44% Predictive or big data analytics
35% Smart machinery or equipment
31% Robotics
29% Smart upgrades to existing equipment
25% Additive manufacturing
24% Smart building
23% Smart asset tracking or monitoring
19% Virtual or augmented reality
18% Blockchain
17% Intelligent vision systems
17% Industrial automation
15% Indoor location tracking
12% Real-time coaching systems
12% Industrial wearables
10% Digital twins
10% Voice interaction
9% 5G
9% Autonomous guided vehicles
8% Integrated Controls
6% Fog or edge computing
5% Drones
“I mean we're going through an assessment period
right now and I know that everybody that I work with is
going to be changing due to these assessments in our
organizational restructuring. If we keep on doing them,
then my project is going to get passed between so
many different people, that it will never see the light of
day. I've had four different plans because I've had four
different managers that view the initiative very
differently. Changing a plan slows you down even after
we have the buy-in.”PRINCIPAL MANUFACTURING ANALYST,
END MANUFACTURER
39 Faith McCreary & Irene Petrick | ACCELERATE – AI, IOT, and a New Beat for the Factory I © 2019 Intel Corporation I All rights reserved.39 Faith McCreary & Irene Petrick | ACCELERATE – AI, IOT, and a New Beat for the Factory I © 2019 Intel Corporation I All rights reserved.
Work Desk in Factory Warehouse
“I think a major outage from a
security-related attack to some
IoT systems that cause a big
business impact might just
make everyone say, ‘Hey, let's
not do this. We are not ready.’ I
think that is going to scare the
hell out of many of us."
IT AND AUTOMATION OPERATIONS MANAGER,
ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURER
36% TECHNICAL SKILL GAPS that prevent us from benefiting from our investment
27% DATA SENSITIVITY from increasing concerns over data and IP privacy,
ownership, and management
23% LACK OF INTEROPERABILITY between protocols, components, products, and
systems
22% SECURITY THREATS both in terms of current and emerging vulnerabilities in the
factory
18% HANDLING DATA GROWTH in amount and velocity as well as sense-making
18% SCALABILITY ROADBLOCKS to accommodating growth without any business
or performance loss
11% OUTPACING MARKETABILITY by our solutions getting too far ahead of
customer and partner capabilities
10% MAINTAINABILITY CHALLENGES that make the advanced systems difficult to
keep up and running
8% NOT TRUSTING advanced systems due to lack of transparency about smart
actions and outputs
Challenges with Potential to Derail Investment
Alex ShikanyVice President
Membership & Business Intelligence
Association for Advancing Automation900 Victors Way STE 140
Ann Arbor, MI, USA
Telephone: +1 (734) 929-3274
Email: ashikany@a3automate.org
Twitter: @AlexShikany
Thank you!
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