21 st Century Commuting Patterns How is the Washington Area Different American Dream Coalition Alan...

21st Century Commuting Patterns

How is the Washington Area Different

American Dream Coalition Alan E. Pisarski Reston Va.Dec. 4, 2008

We are a major NATIONAL region

Fairfax at 1 million = Richmond metro area

Northern Va. at 2 million+ is a major national metro area by itself (= Pittsburgh; approaching Baltimore

metro area )

Attributes of the No Va Commuting World

Wealth and stability Multi-worker households A leader in carpooling More transit than expected Fewer autos/commuter than all but

NY Gov’t still focused on center Highest level of cross-county

commutes

That’s why travel times stink

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

US DC MSA ARL ALX FFX LOU PW

< 20 MINUTES > 60 MINUTES

25.3 33.4 25.3 29.3 30.8 33.6 37.1 AV TT

And why we get up so early

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

USA DC MSA ARL ALX FFX LOU PW

5AM - 6AM

PRE 5

Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income - 2001

01000

20003000

40005000

6000

<

$10K

10K - < $20K

20K - < $30K

30K - < $40K

40K - < $50K

50K - < $60K

60K - < $70K

70K - < $80K

80K+

USA No Va

HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE!

WE CAN DO IT ----

IF WE ALL PULL TOGETHER!

HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE!

WE CAN DO IT ----

IF WE ALL PULL TOGETHER!WE ARE ALMOST THERE!

We are rich because we work

median income vs workers/hh

40,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000110,000120,000

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

workers per household

$

LOU

PW

FFX

MSA

ARLALX

VA

USA

Lots of cars

% HOUSEHOLDS WITHOUT VEHICLES

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

USA VA DCMSA

ALX ARL FFX LOU PW

2007

Mode shares 2007

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US DCMSA

ARL ALX FFX LOU PW

Worked at home

bike, other

Walked

Transit

4 carpool

3 carpool

2-carpool

Drove alone

Non-SOV mode shares 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

US DCMSA

ARL ALX FFX LOU PW

Worked at home

bike, other

Walked

Transit

4 carpool

3 carpool

2-carpool

If NOVA Were Separate Region

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

New York Chicago SanFrancisco

Washington,DC

Boston Northern VA Philadelphia Santa Clara

Stolen from Bob Dunphy via Bob Chase

Va leads the nation in commuting out of residence county (Md #2)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

US VA DC MSA ARL ALX FFX LOU PW

LV STATE LV COUNTY STAY IN STATE

Workers are our biggest export

workers exported each day

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

ARL ALX FFX LOU PW

14% 10%

43%

13%20%

WHAT HAPPENED IN FAIRFAX!

1. Jobs rose and created balance with workers

2. Live/work; 85% of new workers3. BUT IMPORTS BOOMED TO FILL

REMAINING JOBS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

job deficit exports imports

workers-jobs workers-l/w jobs-l/w

1980

1990

2000

Nice to lead the nation in something

Cnty_cnty_wrkrflow.shp0 - 2525 - 100

N

EW

S

County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000

Nice to lead the nation in something

Cnty_cnty_wrkrflow.shp0 - 2525 - 100

N

EW

S

County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000

Greater Mobility Makes Metro Areas Smaller And Bigger

SMALLER Easier Access to

Jobs to Services Customer

Markets More affordable

homes near work

BIGGER Distant areas

now part of economic engine

Operate in world markets as a bigger player

The Challenge Reaching skilled workers will be the

key challenge for employers Employers will go where the skilled

workers are or where they want to be Competition will be amenities-based Good transportation will be one of the

amenities Metro areas that can meet this

challenge will be the big winners

THANK YOU!

Alan E. Pisarski

PISARSKI@ALANPISARSKI.C0M703 941-4257

  US DC MSA ARL ALX FFX LOU PW

Total: 139,259,684 2,783,114 127,464 80,884 544,300 146,544 190,924

Car, truck, or van: 120,442,188 2,172,552 79,031 56,973 460,479 129,719 167,456

Drove alone 105,954,656 1,878,645 68,593 51,477 404,899 114,130 133,935

Carpooled: 14,487,532 293,907 10,438 5,496 55,580 15,589 33,521

2-carpool 11,139,037 211,378 8,446 4,325 41,612 11,183 19,255

3 carpool 1,963,018 48,911 1,361 317 9,319 2,033 8,906

4 carpool 1,385,477 33,618 631 854 4,649 2,373 5,360

Transit 6,800,512 371,137 33,176 18,576 42,574 2,472 8,993

Walked 3,954,210 82,419 6,900 1,657 9,373 2,095 3,085

bike, other 2,386,152 33,682 2,680 1,143 6,122 2,446 2,700

Worked at home 5,676,622 123,324 5,677 2,535 25,752 9,812 8,690

Total: 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Car, truck, or van: 86.49% 78.06% 62.00% 70.44% 84.60% 88.52% 87.71%

Drove alone 76.08% 67.50% 53.81% 63.64% 74.39% 77.88% 70.15%

Carpooled: 10.40% 10.56% 8.19% 6.79% 10.21% 10.64% 17.56%

2-carpool 8.00% 7.60% 6.63% 5.35% 7.65% 7.63% 10.09%

3 carpool 1.41% 1.76% 1.07% 0.39% 1.71% 1.39% 4.66%

4 carpool 0.99% 1.21% 0.50% 1.06% 0.85% 1.62% 2.81%

Transit 4.88% 13.34% 26.03% 22.97% 7.82% 1.69% 4.71%

Walked 2.84% 2.96% 5.41% 2.05% 1.72% 1.43% 1.62%

bike, other 1.71% 1.21% 2.10% 1.41% 1.12% 1.67% 1.41%

Worked at home 4.08% 4.43% 4.45% 3.13% 4.73% 6.70% 4.55%

CP + T 15.29% 23.90% 34.22% 29.76% 18.03% 12.32% 22.27%

In This New World the Great Issue Will Be Skilled Workers

• finding skilled workers will be the key concern of business.

• they will go where those people are;

• or, go where those people want to be!

• Metro areas who can provide this resource will be big winners!

• Minorities and Immigrants will be a crucial part of the work force

THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENTLocation, Amenities, Flexibility

The increases in services in the economy will permit more population to act on location preferences as workers and employers are less tied to resources and more attracted by amenities.

Areas of the country will compete for workers on the basis of life-style, climate, and ease of living. Good transportation will be one of the competitive amenities.

Employers will be forced to be more flexible in schedules and benefits to attract workers.

Parsing the sprawl topic

An ideal gov. program – no definition of problem or measures of success!

Amorphous, ill defined goals – What is public and what is private? What is federal and what is local gov.? Role of transportation Public preferences

“Efficiency” in transportation;BEWARE! A Very Dangerous Word THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT? Transit is a more “efficient” vehicle! The key to all transportation is the efficiency of

the users – passengers and freight – not the vehicles

That’s why trucks not trains – cars not buses One colossal pizza delivery per night per

neighborhood is “efficient”!

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!

“BLAMING TRANSPORTATION FOR THE PROBLEMS OF SPRAWL

IS LIKE BLAMING HEALTH CARE FOR THE PROBLEMS OF OLD AGE.”Brad Mallory, Sec DOT, Pa.

The sprawl debate diverts us from the real issues

Lack of workers/skilled workers Mainstreaming minorities Safety Serving an aging population Responding to pressures of time enhancing economic opportunities Global competitiveness

% LEAVING COUNTY TO WORK

1990 U.S. 23.9%

2000 U.S. 26.7% Va. 52%

2007 U.S. 27.4% Va. 52.5%

COMMUTERS SPRAWL? ACCESS? OCCUPATIONS

?

The great loss from congestion is not the extra three minutes it takes to get home

HOUSEHOLDS It’s the decline in

the number of jobs I could reach in ½ hr!

It’s the decline in the number of affordable homes accessible to my work!

It’s the decline in the assurance of arriving on time!

BUSINESSES It’s the decline in the

number of workers within ½ hr of my employment site!

It’s the decline in the number of suppliers & customers within ½ hr of my business!

It’s the decline in ship- ment reliability!

THE FAIRFAX STORY 1

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1980 1990 2000

JOBS WORKERS

THE FAIRFAX STORY 2

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1980 1990 2000

JOBS LIVE/WORK WORKERS

THE FAIRFAX STORY 3

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1980 1990 2000

JOBS LIVE/WORK

WORKERS EXPORTS

THE FAIRFAX STORY 4

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1980 1990 2000

JOBS LIVE/WORK WORKERS

EXPORTS IMPORTS

Where did residents work? Added 47,000

new workers 40,000 Workers

stayed in County 15,000 fewer

toward center 21,000 more

toward edge & ring

-50,0000

50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

2000

chg 90-00

WHAT HAPPENED IN FAIRFAX!

1. Jobs rose and created balance with workers

2. Live/work; 85% of new workers3. BUT IMPORTS BOOMED TO FILL

REMAINING JOBS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

job deficit exports imports

workers-jobs workers-l/w jobs-l/w

1980

1990

2000

Arlington – not quite perfect yet!

0

510

15

2025

30

35

4045

50

% WORK IN COUNTY %WORK IN CENTER % WORK IN VA

1990

2000

Transportation Makes Cities Both Smaller and Bigger

Smaller in that the times to traverse distances are reduced

Bigger in that a city knitted together with effective transportation acts bigger economically socially

A VERY POSITIVE FUTURE

Problems More Operable Today The Resources to Respond are

there People, Technology, Political &

Financial

MUST RECOGNIZE CENTRAL ROLE OF MOBILITY IN OUR SOCIETY

MUST BE WILLING TO ACT TO FOCUS RESOURCES

A VERY POSITIVE FUTURE

Problems More Operable Today The Resources to Respond are

there People, Technology, Political &

Financial

MUST RECOGNIZE CENTRAL ROLE OF MOBILITY IN OUR SOCIETY

MUST BE WILLING TO ACT TO FOCUS RESOURCES

The Demographic Story a New Phase in American Commuting

1. The Commuting in America series has been the history of the working years of the baby boom generation

2. The Boomers are now moving off stage creating a new phase in American commuting.

3. The key will be where will the new workers come from?

4. Advent of the immigrant workforce will be just one of the challenging concerns

#1 GREAT INCREASES IN WORKERS LEAVING HOME COUNTIES TO WORK

1990 23.9% of workers left home county

2000 26.7% (2007 almost 28%) 90’s - 13.2 meg. new Workers 51%

Left home county (6.7 Meg.) 00’s - Of 5 meg. new workers 55%

left home county (2.6 Meg.) Wash DC Area leads nation!