3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling (ICG-EMO) Hermann Lenhart Center for Marine and...

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling

(ICG-EMO)

Hermann Lenhart

Center for Marine and Climate Research

Institut for Marine Research

University Hamburg, FRG

by

lenhart@ifm.uni-hamburg.de

Introduction to session

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

The OSPAR objectives are:

a. to quantify the relative contributions of the various nutrient sources, with their natural and anthropogenic fractions, to transboundary nutrient transports (TBNT), including reference information on water masses;

b. to construct nutrient budgets for a number of predefined areas;

c. to determine consequences for target areas of any nutrient transport in terms of direct and indirect effects on parameters used for the assessment of the eutrophication status.

The third objective is included to take into account the need to consider not only the transport of nutrients but their subsequent consequence in terms of eutrophication status for downstream areas.

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

OSPAR Requirements

Transfer into model application -Concept -User guide

Provide improved products for modelling community

Balance between comparable results vs feasable for participants

Provide Framework for Modelling -Prepare data -Data description -Feedback with participants

ICG-EMO:

Eutroph. Com:

Report- Terms of References

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Improved coverage of river information

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

[Year]

[t P

/d]

total P

PO4

River Load Thames

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Fig. 9a: Simulated time series of bottom oxygen concentration for the 2002 hindcast run at the position Terschelling 135 vs. OSPAR threshold of 6 mg/l.

DONAR data

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

2002 2002

2001

2001

CANOBA PO4 observations

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Weekly SST-Info from BSH

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Workshop products for modelling community:

EMEP data: monthly N-dep. data for the North Sea

0 4 8 12m onth

0

40

80

120

160

nitro

gen

dep

osi

tion [m

g N

m-2

mon]

2002

Atmospheric deposition of

total inorganic nitrogen:382 kt N a-1

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Questions to:

Eric van der SwaluwRIVM Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu,

Centrum voor Milieu Monitoring, Interpretatie Luchtkwaliteit,

- Overview on EMEP

-Modelling and data processing for atm. N deposition

- Future plans in the development of data provision e.g. higher resolution in coastal regions

- the gaps between the years for long term simulation

- How are episodic rain events covered EMEP data

Further questions welcome!

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Perspective of Ecosystem Modelling

G-C1 - mean w inter DIN at surface

0

20

40

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

nutrient load reduction (%)

µmol

/l

OSPAR AssessmentCatchment plusestuaries

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

ICG-EMO is primariliy designed to provide advice to OSPAR regarding the appropriatness of the 50% reduction target.

Model development within OSPAR:

OSPAR  may use the work we have done to help define new targets in terms of levels of reduction and how they may be achieved.

Whilst the focus is on the marine at the moment future work may consider the catchment in more detail.

Our subsequent work is an attempt to further clarify the relevance of this management strategy ie in determining the level of reduction which may be needed to take account of TBNT.

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Preparation of 3rd ICG-EMO Workshop

- Start of discussion in Lowestoft 2007

- Short discussion at AMEMR meeting Plymouth June 2008

- Coordination Meeting The Hague Jan. 2009 Resulting in User Guide

General feeling: Very demanding task!

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Practical conclusion from Lowestoft:- Discuss results with the participants on the workshop!

Questions for the workshop:- What do the results from the national presentation look like?

- Where did problems in the actual application occur?

-How do we compare and combine the model results?

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

- River load: PO4 and TP?

- Comparability for model results from different approaches?

- Other practical problems?

3rd OSPAR Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling MUMM - Brussel6.-9. September 2009

Thank You !