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Achievable Penetration Rates. The Pace of Conservation Acquisition April 17, 2009 Conservation Resources Advisory Committee. Outline in Two Parts. Part 1 Revisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions. Part 2 Sensitivity Testing. Based on Comments & Further Thought. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Achievable Penetration RatesAchievable Penetration Rates
The Pace of Conservation AcquisitionThe Pace of Conservation Acquisition
April 17, 2009April 17, 2009
Conservation Resources Advisory CommitteeConservation Resources Advisory Committee
slide 2
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Outline in Two PartsOutline in Two Parts
Part 1Part 1– Revisions to Ramp Rate AssumptionsRevisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions
Part 2Part 2– Sensitivity TestingSensitivity Testing
slide 3
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revisions: Revisions: Tamping Down Max Annual RatesTamping Down Max Annual Rates
Based on Comments & Further ThoughtBased on Comments & Further Thought
slide 4
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revisions: Industrial Revisions: Industrial Slowed down two important new measures:Slowed down two important new measures:
– From From New Measure - Fast New Measure - Fast toto New Measure - Medium New Measure - Medium» Energy Project ManagementEnergy Project Management» Integrated Plant Energy ManagementIntegrated Plant Energy Management» Represent about 20% of industrial savingsRepresent about 20% of industrial savings
Retrofit Ramp Rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
New Measure Fast
New Measure Medium
slide 5
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revisions: Distribution EfficiencyRevisions: Distribution Efficiency Formerly All at “Formerly All at “New Measure - MediumNew Measure - Medium”” Now: Split by Measure BundleNow: Split by Measure Bundle
– System Voltage by LDC method at System Voltage by LDC method at New Measure - FastNew Measure - Fast
– System Voltage EOL method at System Voltage EOL method at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow – Light System Improvements at Light System Improvements at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow – Major System Improvements at Major System Improvements at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow
Retrofit Ramp Rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
New Measure Fast
New Measure Medium
New Measure Slow
slide 6
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revisions: CommercialRevisions: CommercialMeasureMeasure 30-Mar30-Mar PreviousPreviousLPD Package-NewLPD Package-New LO 20FastLO 20Fast LO FastLO FastLPD Package-NRLPD Package-NR LO 20FastLO 20Fast LO FastLO FastLighting Controls Interior-NewLighting Controls Interior-New LO MediumLO Medium LO FastLO FastLighting Controls Interior-NRLighting Controls Interior-NR LO MediumLO Medium LO FastLO FastGlass-RetroGlass-Retro Retro in 20Retro in 20 Retro in 10Retro in 10Demand Control Ventilation-NRDemand Control Ventilation-NR LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO MediumRoof Insulation-NRRoof Insulation-NR LO FastLO Fast Retro in 10Retro in 10Computer Servers and IT-RetroComputer Servers and IT-Retro LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO MediumStreet and Roadway Lighting-NRStreet and Roadway Lighting-NR LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO Medium
Achievability Ramp Rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
An
nu
al A
pp
licab
le M
easu
re
Sto
ck A
ch
ievab
le
LO Fast
LO Medium
LO Slow
LO 20Fast
slide 7
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
ResidentialResidential Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics
– New analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 yearsNew analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 years– LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014
Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater– Emerging Technology Ramp RateEmerging Technology Ramp Rate
Annual Lost-Opportunity Penetration Rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
An
nu
al U
nit
s A
ch
eiv
ab
le
LO 5P
LostOp_ResTV
LostOp_ResSTB
HPWH
slide 8
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
ResultsResults
slide 9
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity
2010 20
11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2019
$30$6
0
$100>20
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
MWa
YearLevelized Cost ($ per
MWh)
slide 10
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
RetrofitRetrofit
2010 20
11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017
2018
2019
$30$5
0$60
$100>20
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
MWa
YearLevelized Cost ($ per MWh)
slide 11
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Comparative Max RatesComparative Max Rates66thth PLAN PLAN 20102010 20142014 20192019
Lost-Opportunity @ $100/MWhLost-Opportunity @ $100/MWh 3535 120120 200200
Retrofit @ $60/MWhRetrofit @ $60/MWh 140140 160160 160160
Total Total 175175 280280 360360
55thth PLAN PLAN 20052005 20092009 20142014
Lost-Opportunity @ $100/MWhLost-Opportunity @ $100/MWh 1515 4040 8585
Retrofit @ $60/MWhRetrofit @ $60/MWh 120120 120120 120120
Total Total 135135 160160 205205
slide 12
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
slide 13
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Reality Check Reality Check Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007 Expect higher in 2008Expect higher in 2008
– Most programs exceed 2007 & NEEA tooMost programs exceed 2007 & NEEA too
– Of the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLsOf the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLs» But CFL savings not in 6But CFL savings not in 6thth Plan targets Plan targets
Many New MeasuresMany New Measures Higher Avoided CostsHigher Avoided Costs Federal Standards PushFederal Standards Push State Code Revisions in the WorksState Code Revisions in the Works
slide 14
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
55thth Plan Targets Seemed Daunting Plan Targets Seemed Daunting
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Re
sourc
e (
aM
W)
Lost-Opportunity
Retrofit
5th Plan Targets(130 to 150 MWa)
Historic Performance
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Re
sourc
e (
aM
W)
Alliance Programs
BPA and Utility Programs
slide 15
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Part 2: Part 2: Ramp Rate Sensitivity TestingRamp Rate Sensitivity Testing
Purpose: Purpose: – What is the Value of Going Faster?What is the Value of Going Faster?– What is the Cost of Going Slower?What is the Cost of Going Slower?– What are the Resource Consequences?What are the Resource Consequences?– What are the Revenue Requirements?What are the Revenue Requirements?
Tool: Portfolio ModelTool: Portfolio Model– Test Slow & Fast Achievable PenetrationTest Slow & Fast Achievable Penetration
Issue: What Ranges?Issue: What Ranges?
slide 16
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Ramp Rate Sensitivity TestingRamp Rate Sensitivity TestingStaff ProposalStaff Proposal
Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity– SLOW: SLOW: Up to $60 / MWh levelized costUp to $60 / MWh levelized cost– FAST: FAST: Up to $120 / MWh levelized costUp to $120 / MWh levelized cost
Non-Lost-OpportunityNon-Lost-Opportunity– SLOW: SLOW: 55thth Plan Rate Plan Rate– FAST: FAST: Washington I-937 rateWashington I-937 rate
» All Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly pacedAll Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly paced
slide 17
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Test Slow & Fast Deployment RatesTest Slow & Fast Deployment Rates
20102010 20142014 20192019
Lost-Opportunity SLOWLost-Opportunity SLOWUp to $60/MWhUp to $60/MWh
2929 100100 168168
Lost-Opportunity FASTLost-Opportunity FASTUp to $120/MWhUp to $120/MWh
3636 123123 206206
Non-Lost Opportunity SLOWNon-Lost Opportunity SLOW55thth Plan Maximum Plan Maximum
120120 120120 120120
Non-Lost Opportunity FAST Non-Lost Opportunity FAST All Cost-Effective @$60/MWh in 10 years (I-937)All Cost-Effective @$60/MWh in 10 years (I-937)
160160 160160 160160
Proposed Annual Maximum Limits on Deployment in MWa
slide 18
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Annual Deployment Rates for Annual Deployment Rates for Non-Lost Opportunity ResourcesNon-Lost Opportunity Resources
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Maxi
mum
Annual S
avi
ngs
SLOW: Non-LOFAST: Non-LO
slide 19
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Annual Deployment Rate for Annual Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity ResourcesLost Opportunity Resources
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Maxi
mum
Annual S
avi
ngs
SLOW LOFAST LO
slide 20
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Annual Deployment Rates for All Annual Deployment Rates for All Conservation ResourcesConservation Resources
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Maxi
mum
Annual S
avi
ngs
SLOWFASTHistorical Ramp
slide 21
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cumulative Deployment Rate for Cumulative Deployment Rate for Non-Lost Opportunity ResourcesNon-Lost Opportunity Resources
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Maxi
mum
Cum
ula
tive
Savi
ngs SLOW: Non-LO
FAST: Non-LO
slide 22
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cumulative Deployment Rate for Cumulative Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity ResourcesLost Opportunity Resources
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Maxi
mum
Cum
ula
tive
Savi
ngs FAST: LO
SLOW: LO
slide 23
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cumulative Deployment Rate for Cumulative Deployment Rate for All ResourcesAll Resources
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Maxi
mum
Cum
ula
tive
Savi
ngs
SLOW: Cumulative
FAST: Cumuative
slide 24
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
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