African Economic Outlook 2003/2004

African Economic OutlookAfrican Economic Outlook2003/20042003/2004

Outline

Background information

Macroeconomic projections

Poverty outlook

Energy focus

Background Information

A joint project by ADB

& OECD Development Centre

Structure Overview

Country Notes

Statistical Annex

Country coverage

Country coverage, 2003/04

The 2003/2004 outlook

A modest recovery, due to both internal and external

factors

Growth rates in OECD area

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003(e) 2004(p) 2005(p)

United States European Union OECD trade weighted OECD average

ODA to Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

US$

bil

lion

s

0

10

20

30

40

per

cen

tage

ODA to Africa Africa's share in ODA

On the negative side: US dollar depreciation

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04

Euro

Rand

Average growth rates of African countries

REGION AVERAGE 1996-2001

2002 2003(E) 2004(P) 2005(P)

Central 2.7 4.1 4.2 7.1 7.0

East 4.3 1.7 2.4 4.9 4.6

North 4.5 3.3 4.9 3.5 4.2

South 2.8 3.3 1.8 2.8 3.1

West 3.5 1.0 4.5 3.9 4.0

Total 3.6 2.7 3.6 3.6 4.0

Best and worst performers

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.02004

2003

Central East North South West

Gabon

Equatorial Guinea

Madagascar

Zimbabwe

AngolaMozambique

Cote d'Ivoire

Sierra Leone

Chad

Seychelles

Ethiopia

Ethiopia

Inflation is under control (with a few exceptions)

Agregate CPI inflation (%)

excluding hyper-inflation countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003(e 2004(p) 2005(p)

Central

East

North

South

West

Total

Fiscal situation of many countries

is still weak

Fiscal balance as % of GDP, 2003 estimate

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

Central East North South West

Gabon

Seychelles

Algeria

Sao Tome EthiopiaEgypt

Zambia Sierra Leone

Guinea Bissau

Angola Togo

Poverty

sub-Saharan Africa will miss the 2015 MDGs target by a large

extent

The income poverty target

46.7

39.3

23.9

47.7

0

25

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

SSA Actual SSA projected SSA path to goal

Progress toward achieving MDGs

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Eradicate hunger

achieve universal primaryeducation

promote gender equality

reduce child mortality

ensure environmentalsustainability

achieved on track slightly off far behind slipping back no data

Energy focus

The energy sectors may play significant role in poverty alleviation and development:

» Energy contributes to improving people’s lives

» Energy contributes to the development of economic activities

»Energy contributes to the efficiency of economic management

Energy focus

However, the African energy sectors hardly play such a role; they are characterized by:

»too heavy reliance on traditional energy sources (biomass), related to inadequate supply of modern energy

» underutilization of potential sources of energy

» mismanagement of resources that are utilized

Structure of energy consumption

in Africa (2001)

Coal 7 %

World structure:

Biomass 14%

Electricity 16%

Petroleum 44 %

Gas 16%Biomass

59%

Electricity8%

Coal4%

Petroleum25%

Gas4%

Oil and NGLs

0

10

20

30

40

50

MiddleEast

SouthAmerica

Africa Asia Oceania Europe NorthAmerica

mill

ion

barr

els/

day

0

20

40

60

80

100

year

s of

pro

duct

ion

production reserves/production ratio

Gas

0

200

400

600

800

1000

MiddleEast

Africa SouthAmerica

Europe Asia Oceania NorthAmerica

billi

on m

3

0

50

100

150

200

250

year

s

net production shrinkage flared reserves/production ratio

Hydroelectric power

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Asia SouthAmerica

Europe Africa NorthAmerica

Oceania MiddleEast

TWh/

year

technically exploitable capability actual power generation

Supply of motor gasoline in Nigeria (2001)

local production

40%

importation60%

Observed taxation on oil export

0 20 40 60 80 100

UAE

Saudi Arabia

Algeria

Cameroon

Sudan

Angola

Gabon

Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Electricity losses in 2001

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

OECD Total

ZambiaMozambique

MoroccoSouth Africa

TunisiaEthiopia

EgyptZimbabwe

GhanaCote d'Ivoire

AlgeriaGabon

SenegalKenya

TanzaniaCameroon

Nigeria

Thank you