Anthropogenic Climate Change Science and Response

Anthropogenic Climate ChangeAnthropogenic Climate ChangeScience and ResponseScience and Response

Phillip O’Brien p.obrien@epa.ie

Climate Change Unit, EPA

Atmospheric Physics, NUI, Galway

Outline of Seminar

Who am I? Environmental Protection Agency Climate Change Research Programme Review of Basic Science Recent Research findings International Response to Climate Change National Emissions Inventory (2010)

Who am I?

BSc Applied Physics DCU MSc Experimental Physics NUI.Galway

Research Ozone and Air Quality modelling Methane field measurement and Inverse Modelling Inventory methodology, Land Use

NUIG, NUIM, University of London EPA

Environmental Protection Agency

Independent Government Body

Environmental Protection Agency Act, 1992. Waste Management Act, 1996. Protection of the Environment Act, 2003.

Proposed Climate Change Act (2011?)

Approximately 250 people Headquarters in Wexford 5 regional offices Dublin, Cork, Kilkenny, Monaghan, Castlebar

Roles of EPA

Environmental licensing Enforcement of environmental law Environmental planning, education and guidance Monitoring, analysing and reporting on the environment Regulating Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions Environmental research development Strategic environmental assessment Waste management

Climate Change Research Programme

CCRP

2007-2013 42 research on-going projects Carbon Neutrality by 2050 Examples

Carbon Capture and Storage Potential in Ireland Climate Change Indictors and Impacts in Ireland Extreme Events in the Historic and Instrumental Records Quantifying the Capture and Use of Methane from Landfills Quantfying Methane Emission from Livestock Analysis of Options for Sustainable Transport

Review Basic Science

Basic Science: Incoming Radiation

1365 wm-2

Incoming at

top of atmosphere

342 wm-2

Incoming at surface

Basic Science Cntd. Energy Budget

Balance at top of atmosphere 342 in 107+235 (342) out

Balance at surface 168+ 324 (492)in 24+78+390 (492) out

Causes of Climate Change: Celestial MechanicsChanges in Earth Orbit etc.

Next Ice Age30,000yrs

Causes of Climate ChangeVolcanic Activity and Geological Erosion

Current global volcanic activity amount to just 1/150th of the CO2 emissions from Fossil fuels

In the past CO2 concentrations were indeed much higher (3000ppb) than now (385 ppb)

The processes of erosion gradually remove CO2 from the atmosphere

Causes of Climate ChangeSolar Variability

http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/

Solar variability does have an impact on ClimateThere is evidence that an extended period of reduced solar activity called the Maunder Minimum caused the so called “Little Ice Age” (1645-1750)

Causes of Climate ChangeSolar Variability

Recent Climate Change does not correlated well with observed solar activity.

Causes of Climate ChangeAerosol effects

Global dimming thought to have masked warming during the 1960’s and 70’s

Causes of Climate ChangeChanges in Land Surface

This is important,Second only to GHG emissions for causes climate change in modern times (25% of warming)

Due to human activity and impact of climate change on natural ecosystems

Land surface is darker (aborbs more incoming radiation)

Loss of vegetation, major terrestrial store of carbon (converted to CO2)

Causes of Climate ChangeGreenhouse Gases

Water vapour (H2O)Accounts for about 60% of Greenhouse effect. However, it is not a driver of climate change. It’s present in the atmosphere is a response (feedback) to the initial driver

Ian Stewart demonstration of CO2 absorption

Drivers of Climate Change relative to 1750Radiative Forcing

Attribution: It’s “mostly likely” GHG

Observations

IPCC AR4

Aside:The Scientific Method and Global Climate Models Make an observation Propose a theory/explanation Make more observations designed to test the theory

Observations from experiments Repeatable Control over conditions Universal

Observations from the Environment Usually once off events Little or no control Site specific

AsideClimate Model development

AsideGlobal Climate Models

The theory predicts

Increase temperature in lower atmosphere

Decrease in temperature in the stratosphere

Global temperatures Observations agreed with model

Sea Level Rise

PNAS April 2010

Global Warming Observation

Global Climate Change is on-going 0.15-0.20 oC/decade

Jim Hansen et al, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Models are not perfect

Arctic Sea Ice Extent is changing rapidly Models do not currently capture this

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

US National Snow and Ice ServiceThe Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009)

Drought patterns

Palmer Drought Severity Index

Global emissions

IPCC, UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC 1989 United Nations Environment Programme and WMO Assessment of science, policy neutral

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992, in response to the IPCC First Assessment Report (1991)

Kyoto Protocol, KP 1997 (came into force 2007 when Russia ratified, US failed to ratify) Coincided with Second Assessment Report 2008-2012

Copenhagen Accord December 2009 International support for the “2oC Target”

Mexico Agreement December 2010

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

The proposed pathway to reducing the risk of dangerous climate change

Changing Energy Landscape

IPCC

Assessment Reports FAR 1990 SAR 1995 TAR 2001 AR4 2007, Nobel Prize AR5 2013

Special Reports Carbon Capture and Storage 2005 Technology Transfer 2000 Emission Scenarios 2000

Technical Papers Mitigation Options in Agriculture Climate Change and Water

Methodology Reports Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines

for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm

Cascading level of decision making and increasing detail from the Convention down to the CRF and GPG (1992-2006)

The Marrakesh

Accordsto

The Kyoto Protocol

National Emissions Inventory

What is an Emissions Inventory? Estimate of the release to the environment (atmosphere) of a

variety of pollutant or environmental harmful species, over a given period (usually one year)

Inferred from activity data which is directly related to the emission E.g. petrol sales (carbon dixoide), number of livestock (methane), fertiliser sales

(nitrous oxide)

Accurately represent local (national) circumstances as far as is reasonable

Comprehensive, identify and evaluate all sources Compromise between precision and cost and complexity Agreed methodology

National Emissions 1990-2008

Rapid increase in 1990’s

Stabilised or slightly decreasing since 2001

2008 67Mt CO2 eq 2.5Mt above Target even with Forest Sink

NIR 2010 (Provisional

Sectoral Breakdown of Emissions Trends

Energy encouraging trend since 2001

Agriculture contracting Residential steady Industry increasing

gradually

Transport emissions nearly triple

Forest Sink is about 2xWaste source (not shown)

The Future

Tesla Electric Roadster

Wind Turbine

Thank you

Ice loss

Proxy reconstruction of temperature

AR4 Summary for Policymakers