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Problem Analysis
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Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 1
Action Planning exercise
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 2
Introduction
Scenario Roles: staff, participants Groups Time Schedule Time planning and management Output
Process to develop action plan
Monitor and evaluateMonitor and evaluate
Identify problems
Set and analyse objectivesSet and analyse objectives
Force -field analysis
Develop options
analyze impact/ prioritizeanalyze impact/ prioritize
choose/ decide
Plan action
communicate, get support
communicate, get support
implement
operate and maintainoperate and maintain
Ongoing development of support and revision
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 5
Problem analysisObjectives:
Clarify relation between problems and issues Introduce the relationship between problems and
objectives Identify key questions for analysis of problems Clarify relationships between problems
problems
problems
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 7
problem focusproblems
need to focus on clear issues
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 8
need for focused strategy
strategy
problem
01072
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 9
relationship between problems objectives and goals
problem/ objectivegoal
opportunity
concept developed from idea of Edward de Bono
The $50,000,000 problem definition
The $50,000,000 problem definition
Case of the Isle of WightCase of the Isle of Wight
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 11
Situation 1
Water shortage No local resources Decision to make
pipeline to mainland at cost of £30 million ($50 million)
Pipeline implemented Plenty of water Everyone happy
(except taxpayers?)
pipelinepipeline
forecast demandforecast demand
supplysupply
Time
Volume of water
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 12
Situation, part 2
Water company privatised
Experiments with water meters on the island
Peoples habits change dramatically, reducing the demand for water to well below the original point at which there was a problem
pipelinepipeline
Water metersWater meters
Actual demandActual
demand
Originally forecast demand
Originally forecast demand
supplysupply
Time
Volume of water
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 13
Lessons
Poor definition of the original problem can be very expensive!
Question: what would be a definition of the problem in this case that could have saved a lot of the $50,000,000?
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 14
Problem formulation
The formulation should be something like:
“There is a mismatch of supply and demand for water on the island, particularly at the peak tourist season”
This leaves open whether future action will concentrate on the supply side, the demand side or both. This quality is very important at problem definition stage - it is the foundation of all later action.
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 15
Relations between problemsThe problem tree
Core problemCore problem
EffectsEffects
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
EffectsEffectsEffectsEffects
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
Roots orcauses
EffectsEffectsEffectsEffectsEffectsEffectsEffectsEffects
Relations between problemsThe problem tree: example
mismatch betweensupply and demandmismatch betweensupply and demand
harm to tourist industry
harm to tourist industry
limited financelimited
finance
high usagehigh usagelimited supplylimited supply
limited groundwater
limited groundwater
periodic water shortage
periodic water shortage
Leakage in system
Leakage in system
No water meters
No water meters
wastefulhabits
wastefulhabits
limits on new housing
limits on new housing
unwillingnessof industry to
invest
unwillingnessof industry to
invest
unemploymentunemployment
healthproblemshealth
problems
attitudesattitudes
Effe
cts
Roo
tsC
ore
prob
lem
WORKSHOP ON PARTICIPATIVE URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND UPGRADING FOR ALICE, EASTERN CAPEMAY 7 - 13, 1995, CRAWFORD’S CABINS, CINTSA BEACH, EASTERN CAPE_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hospital too small to meet needs
Over-loaded Hospital
High prevalence of TB & other communicable diseases
Dustroads devaluate properties
Dust roads damage cars
Storm water drains frequently blocked by sand after rain
Rubbish scattered in the town roads
+- 400 sites have pit latrine (Niselamanzi village)
+-350 families use bucket system (Hillcrest & Khyelitsha)
1/3 of housing lack electricity
Poor health
Poor sanitation (inadequate management of municipal waste)
Poor road mainte-nance
Present water infrastructure cannot cope with growing population/town
Overloading of existing infrastructure
Over-crow-ding
Dust from gravel roads is a health hazard
Lots of gravel roads
Poor health care
Insufficient capacity at municipality in Engineering&Townplanning
Lack of resources (finance) to improve infrastructure
Low institutional capacity/support from province
High population growth
Many low income householdsin Alice
High population growth
High birthrate In-migration
Lack of skilled personnel No grant
applications made
Finance application to RDP not being processed
Perception of relatively better chances of survival in Alice
Lack of facilities in neighbouring areas
Ignorance of financing mechanism
No money to hire skill personnel
PROBLEM ANALYSIS
D 1.2
Low income households cannot afford houses
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 18
Problem analysis: key questions
why is it a problem? whose problem? Where is the problem? When is it a problem? How long has it been a problem? Are you dealing with the core problem,
symptom or solution? What would happen if you do nothing?
Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 19
Solutions
Problem analysis: conclusions Good problem analysis lays the
foundations for effective planning It is worth spending the time to do
problem analysis well as it leads to creative and innovative actions
Problem or opportunity analysis is not easy to do well -it requires changes in the way of thinking
Don’t shoot from the hip! Solutions will be developed later
PLANNING HEALTH WARNINGLack of good thinking can seriously injure your plans
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