ARC Modeling Activities - Atlanta Regional Commission...2019/12/06  · – Overall regional total...

December 6, 2019

ARC Modeling Activities(Past, Present & Future)

Model User Group

PAST

Background

• ARC Activity-Based Model – Current Distribution

– 20-County model

– 20-County Population Synthesizer with Microsoft SQL

– Model calibration/validation for 2015

• GDOT traffic counts (daily/hourly)

• I-85 HOT lane transaction data

• Speed data from various sources

• Re-expansion of HHTS/TOBS to 2015

Background

• ARC Modeling Activities as of 2019 Q1

– Official forecasts

• TARP (2016) → 20-county model

– RTP forecasts

– Conformity determination

• TIP Amendment runs → 20-county model

– The latest version: #7 (2019)

– Forecasting years: 2020, 2030 and 2040

– “Special” studies

PRESENT

Background

• ABM Peer Review in 2017

– Long-term/short-term recommendations

• Population Synthesizer Webinar (December 2017)

– MySQL version with 21 Counties

– Full contents covered

– The program shared

– MS-SQL version of PopSyn: Retired

Peer Review Addressed Recommendations

• Lower value-of-time for passenger cars

• Connection between PopSyn-generated workers and ARC

employment forecasts

• Incorporation of school enrollment data

• Sensitivity testing

• Work-from-Home model

Major Model Updates To Date

• Peer Review Short-term Recommendations

• 21 Counties

• External Model Update

• Model Sensitivity Testing

• Updated Socioeconomic Data (“Series 16”)

• Online Documentation: Finalize conversion to online format in GitHub

• Model Enhancement and Validation

Expanded Modeling Area (so far)

• 21 Counties

External Model Update

• External model components

– Work vs. Non-Work IE/EI shares

– IE/EI vs. EE shares

– EE desire lines

– Trip generation

– Trip distribution

– Time of day

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

IE Work IE Non-Work EE Total

External Passenger Cars by Trip Type

AirSage Updated

External Model Update (cont’d)

• Trip distribution results substantially improved when compared

to observed data

Purpose Facility Observed ModelPercent

Difference

Coincidence

Ratio

Work Interstate 41.76 42.49 2% 0.86

WorkNon-

Interstate39.68 40.88 3% 0.91

Non-Work Interstate 36.54 36.79 1% 0.83

Non-WorkNon-

Interstate36.37 36.74 1% 0.91

Population Synthesizer

• Population Synthesizer– Connection between PopSyn

workers and ARC employment forecasts

– Modified the population / household control priorities to improve future population synthesis• Ensure that number of synthesized

households match control totals for all TAZs

• Ensure that total number of workers is 0.95 of the total employment forecast

School Data

• Augment private school data for school location choice– ARC staff prepared private

school enrollment data at TAZ level

– Private school enrollment is approximately 7% of total enrollment (77,000 students)

– Helps with the prediction of school trip destinations

Model Sensitivity Testing

• Including the Base

Model, 10 scenarios

were analyzed

Highway Capacity

• ½ capacity

• 2x capacity

Transit Fares

• No fares

• ½ fares

• 2x base fares

Fuel Costs

• ½ fuel costs

• 2x fuel costs

Transit In-Vehicle Time

• 0.95x IVT

• 1.05x IVT

Base Model

Work-from-Home Choice

• Add a sub-model to predict whether the usual workplace location is at home– Working home occasionally (i.e., tele-

commuting) is captured in the Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern model

– When “home” is the work location, no commute trip is generated

– Approximately 6% of workers report that home is their usual workplace (ACS 2015)

Usual Workplace

Choice

Work from Home

Work Out of Home

TAZ 2TAZ 1

Modified CT-RAMP Process

Changes in Main Script

• New internal and external zone specifications

• New value of time (autos)

• Updated vehicle operating costs (autos & trucks)

• Updated fuel costs (autos & trucks)

• Convergence criterion in highway assignment (relative

gap = 0.0001)

• A new module for performance measures in addition to

traditional aggregate summary

EA(XCPU

EA)

AM(XCPUAM)

MD(XCPUMD)

PM(XCPUPM)

EV(XCPU

EV)

DistributeMultistep (XCPU)

DistributeIntrastep

EA(XCPU)

AM(XCPU)

MD(XCPU)

PM(XCPU)

EV(XCPU)

DistributeIntrastep

MultiThread (XCPU)

Changes in Main Script (Cont’d)Parallel Assignments (Cube 6.4.3) Sequential Assignments (Cube 6.4.5)

Model Enhancement and Validation

• Good matches to daily counts

Volume Group Observations RMSE %RMSE Total Volume Total CountsVol / Cnt

Ratio< 2500 3,283 1,421 117.0% 4,979,000 3,981,000 1.25

2500 - 4999 2,109 2,105 57.0% 7,967,000 7,736,000 1.03

5000 - 9999 2,681 3,161 44.0% 18,710,000 19,120,000 0.98

10000 - 24999 2,300 4,891 32.0% 31,083,000 35,163,000 0.88

25000 - 49999 365 7,918 23.0% 11,715,000 12,389,000 0.95

50000 - 74999 172 10,202 16.0% 10,421,000 10,913,000 0.95

75000 - 99999 103 10,373 12.0% 8,506,000 8,793,000 0.97

>= 100000 104 10,697 9.0% 12,705,000 12,806,000 0.99

Total 11,117 3,812 38.0% 106,086,000 110,901,000 0.96

ARC 2015 HIGHWAY VALIDATION SUMMARIES

Model Enhancement and Validation

• VMT - good overall match for minor arterial and above

FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION

GDOT 2015

(AWDT)MODEL 2015

PERCENT

DIFFERENCE

Inters tate 57,399,000 54,422,000 -5.2%

Principa l Arteria l 27,417,000 26,377,000 -3.8%

Minor Arteria l 34,652,000 34,277,000 -1.1%

Col lector 12,960,000 11,242,000 -13.3%

Local 48,488,000 11,341,000 -76.6%

Tota l 180,916,000 137,659,000 -23.9%

Arteria l and Above 119,468,000 115,076,000 -3.7%

Col lector and Above 132,428,000 126,318,000 -4.6%

Model Enhancement and Validation

• Transit assignment

– Improvements in MARTA rail

– Better match with MARTA buses

and GRTA express buses

– Improvements in CCT and GCT

– Overall regional total very close

Operator / Mode Observed Modeled Difference % Difference

MARTA Rail 230,940 247,040 16,100 7%

MARTA Bus 201,370 184,100 -17,270 -9%

GRTA 6,370 5,440 -930 -15%

CCT 11,660 15,960 4,300 37%

GCT 6,430 7,900 1,470 23%

HAT 570 1,530 960 168%

CATS 120 130 10 8%

Shuttles 46,300 41,090 -5,210 -11%

Total 503,760 503,190 -570 0%

Model Enhancement and Validation• MARTA rail – good overall match

Model Enhancement and Validation• MARTA buses – better R-squared

Online Documentation

• GitHub platform

• HTML version

– Specifications

– User Guide

– Calibration

FUTURE(Potential Implementation)

Major Research Activities to Date

• Emerging technology

– TNC (Uber, Lyft, etc.)

– Automated Vehicle

• Segmented value-of-time (VOTs)

• ActivitySim assessment and preliminary conversion

Emerging Technology (AV)

• Focus: market penetration level, empty VMT

• Segmentation between AV and Non-AV adopters

– Car ownership model

– Dictates trips by AV adopters and by shared AVs

• Mode choice

– Additional modes: Shared AVs and TNCs

• AV routing and ZOV trips

– AV adopters and Shared AVs (TNCs)

– Challenging optimization problem with constraints

Emerging Technology (AV)

• Separation between CVs

and AVs from COM

• Traffic assignment of AVs

as a separate user class

– Higher capacity and

specific VDFs for AVs

• Partial penetration

effects

Emerging Technology (TNC)

• Addition of a TNC mode to the model

– Mode choice, accessibility

• Chicago TNC data

– Covers TNC trips that either begin or end in the city limits

– Weekdays (Mon-Thur) vs. Weekends (Fri-Sun)

• Cost/mile split by hour and by geographic area

– Peak hours, CBD, airport

• Targets for TNC shares

VOT Segmentation

• Segmentation

• Segment generalized costs for highway assignment

• “Many more” classes in highway assignment

Income Group Income VOT

Low < $20k 5.60$

Medium low $20k to $50k 10.11$

Medium high $50k to $100k 19.16$

High > $100k 40.56$

ActivitySim

• Transition from the Java-based CT-RAMP platform

• Anaconda Conda platform

– Python data science packages

– NumPy, Pandas, and potential visualization packages

(Matplotlib, Seaborn)

• Potential benefits

– Efficiency, Stability, Compatibility, Expandability, Maintenance

Model Release

Previously Released (FG mtg, 6/14/19)

• “DRAFT” 2015 Model

– A draft version of 2015 socioeconomic data

– Informative purpose

– NOT to be used for projects

• Model Specifications Report

• Download

– http://abmfiles.atlantaregional.com/

– Base15FG_DRAFT.zip

Final Release

• Final version of the model to be released “soon”

– TARP2020 process

– January-February 2020

– Forecasting years: 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 & 2050

• Online Documentation

Contact

Kyeil Kim

Atlanta Regional Commission

(470) 378-1567

kykim@atlantaregional.org