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Why Has Global Warming Paused?
Argonne National Laboratory
March 22, 2013
William Happer
Princeton University
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Der Spiegel, Jan. 2013Klimawandel: Forscher rtseln ber Stillstand bei Erderwrmung
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/stillstand-der-temperatur-erklaerungen-fuer-pause-der-klimaerwaermung-a-877941.htmlhttp://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/stillstand-der-temperatur-erklaerungen-fuer-pause-der-klimaerwaermung-a-877941.html8/11/2019 Argonne National Lab Talk Happer
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Mail Online, Monday, March 18
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After a long pause, or slight decline from the dust bowl maximima
of the 1930s, temperatures started to rise rapidly in the 1980s.
Temperatures have been stable since about 1998, although CO2 levels
have continued to rise.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=hadley+center+world+temperature+record&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=uFHDmRDbBcJv0M&tbnid=ScNSzG-wK1de6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2012/07/27/greenland-may-become-green-again&ei=KPk8UYHUEMbw0QH-qIH4CQ&bvm=bv.43287494,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNFHxL6FJBibdWJMIJPJTKM0N3dIcA&ust=1363036548732097http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=hadley+center+world+temperature+record&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=uFHDmRDbBcJv0M&tbnid=ScNSzG-wK1de6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2012/07/27/greenland-may-become-green-again&ei=KPk8UYHUEMbw0QH-qIH4CQ&bvm=bv.43287494,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNFHxL6FJBibdWJMIJPJTKM0N3dIcA&ust=13630365487320978/11/2019 Argonne National Lab Talk Happer
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
Satellite temperature measurements
show little warming
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El Nino
Normal
La Nina
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_lanina.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_lanina.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_normal.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_normal.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_elnino.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_elnino.png8/11/2019 Argonne National Lab Talk Happer
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The earth is almost always
warming or cooling.
A strong warming phase beganabout 200 years ago, long before
CO2
levels began to increase.
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From John Muir's notes about his first visit to
Glacier Bay in October, 1879.
Glacier Bay is undoubtedly young as yet.
Vancouver's chart, made only a century ago,
shows no trace of it, though found admirably
faithful in general. It seems probable,
therefore, that even then the entire bay was
occupied by a glacier of which all thosedescribed above, great though they are,
were only tributaries.
John Muir, first President of
The Sierra Club
From Travels in Alaska, Chapter X
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=john+muir&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=5wiwIDS3U3wx4M&tbnid=q9SrPbgkTGb1qM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Muir&ei=_R4oUYPyFqq40gHWmoG4Dg&bvm=bv.42768644,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEETra6P9KWLbqK1qlfqx6MD2RNYg&ust=1361670257278472http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=john+muir&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=5wiwIDS3U3wx4M&tbnid=q9SrPbgkTGb1qM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Muir&ei=_R4oUYPyFqq40gHWmoG4Dg&bvm=bv.42768644,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEETra6P9KWLbqK1qlfqx6MD2RNYg&ust=13616702572784728/11/2019 Argonne National Lab Talk Happer
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Could much of the warming from
1950 to 2000 have been due tonatural causes and not CO2 ?
Solar activity?
Cosmic rays?
Pacific Decadal Oscillation?
Atlantic Meridional Oscillation?
Etc., etc.
Lets review the basic physics!
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The Earth from Space
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Atmospheric Circulation
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A NASA Website
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MODTRAN Radiation Spectrum of Earth
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Examples of FTIR Data from a Satellite
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Saturation of the CO2 Band
At current CO2 levels, the radiative
forcing of CO2 is not proportional to the
concentration, [CO2], but is approximatelyproportional to ln [CO2]. This is the
celebrated logarithmic response.
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MODTRAN Calculation of T versus C02
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Warming from Doubling CO2(Climate Sensitivity)
Direct Effect of CO2: about 1 C
IPCC Most Probable: 3 C
Most of the large discrepancy is due to
supposed positive feedback from watervapor.
Even the 1 C may be too big!
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2349 cm -1
frequency too high for
greenhouse warming
666 cm -1 (Satans number)
greenhouse warming
1388 cm-1
no changing dipole moment,
no absorption or emission
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Attenuation Coefficient (e-foldings / length)
N is the number density of CO2 molecules, and seg is the cross section of the
transition from a lower state g to an upper state e; Geg is the lineshape function.
Line strength (in cm)
neg = frequency (in cm-1) of the transition, Deg = the electric dipole matrix
element, Eg = lower-state energy, T = absolute temperature, k = Boltzmanns
constant, h = Plancks constant, c = speed of light, T = absolute temperature.
Partition function
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A Lorentzian line shape
meg = collision broadening of line; n = emission/absorption frequency
A Voigt line shape
Normalized line shapes
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H d L F H i P t t
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Hedy Lamarr Frequency-Hopping Patent
(to defeat torpedo-jamming by Nazi ships)
Lamarr-Anthiel system hopped
over 88 frequencies (piano
keyboard). US Patent 2,292,387
CO2 can hop to any of several
thousand vibration-rotation
frequencies at each collision.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=61vxplrqVxQWAM&tbnid=ifccn8ZLQYgTqM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADiRAg&url=http://colorcubic.com/2011/05/03/the-madness-of-george-antheil/&ei=tQY0UaaVNarD0QHCkoEY&psig=AFQjCNFMEUXqLbFEgnjG_AyRWwW81dRxlw&ust=1362450485922013http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=61vxplrqVxQWAM&tbnid=ifccn8ZLQYgTqM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADiRAg&url=http://colorcubic.com/2011/05/03/the-madness-of-george-antheil/&ei=tQY0UaaVNarD0QHCkoEY&psig=AFQjCNFMEUXqLbFEgnjG_AyRWwW81dRxlw&ust=1362450485922013http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=-96ofl2rgZ2OlM&tbnid=u7J3KvzSMTgAcM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/classic-movies/images/9477801/title/hedy-lamarr&ei=rwQ0UemhDeuJ0QHeg4CABA&psig=AFQjCNG2QpF78A1HcDpFpvhPo4jVwVqNtQ&ust=1362449967263810http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=-96ofl2rgZ2OlM&tbnid=u7J3KvzSMTgAcM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/classic-movies/images/9477801/title/hedy-lamarr&ei=rwQ0UemhDeuJ0QHeg4CABA&psig=AFQjCNG2QpF78A1HcDpFpvhPo4jVwVqNtQ&ust=13624499672638108/11/2019 Argonne National Lab Talk Happer
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Schwartzschild equation for
radiant intensity from earth.
Planck brightness
Attenuation rate
Optical depth to space
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Downwelling Flux at the Surface
Planck Brightness
Optical Depth from Surface to Altitude z
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390 ppm CO2
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780 ppm CO2
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Using Voigt Profiles Increases
The Radiative-Forcing IncrementFrom Doubling CO2 By A Factor
~1.4
But far wing absorption from Voigtprofiles does not exist!
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Hartmann, Boulet and Robert, Collisional Effects on Molecular Spectra, Elsevier, 2008
Voigt Line Shapes Dont Work in Far Wings!
M
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Mail Online, Monday, March 18
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Why has global warming paused?
Qualitatively, more CO2 almost certainly causes some warming.
Complicated physics makes it difficult to quantify the warming.
Essentially all of the warming and coolings before 1900 were natural.
Much of the warming of the past century was probably natural.
The radiative forcing from more CO2 has probably been overestimated.
One possible reason, poorly modelled far-wing lineshapes, has been discussed.
Feedback from water vapor and clouds may have been over-estimated too.
Contributions from long term natural cycles have probably been underestimated:
The Sun
Cosmic Rays
Pacific Decadal OscillationAtlantic Meridional Oscillation
etc., etc.
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I am in revolt against the age-old lie that the
majority is always right.
Henrik Ibsen,An Enemy of the People
Closing Thought
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