Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac APPEA 2005...

Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods

Annimacwww.annimac.com.au

APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition

Securing our Industry 11 April 2005 Perth W Australia

Speaker

Conference Plenary Conference Plenary

Two most powerful industries :Two most powerful industries :

. Technology I C T . Technology I C T

. Energy Oil & gas . Energy Oil & gas

Industry secure future ?Industry secure future ?

NoNo

Not the way it is Not the way it is

What must change ? What must change ?

Can it change ? Can it change ?

Rate of ChangeRate of Change

• every 5 seconds : new web siteevery 5 seconds : new web site

• every 5 minutes : new technologyevery 5 minutes : new technology

• every day : 15 million new web pages

• every 5 days : new product / service

Amount of change in one day

our Grandparents had in one year

Younger means faster

Technology

e.g. by 2020

70 % types of jobs then

do not exist now because

80% technology not yet imagined

Driving all Drivers of ChangeDriving all Drivers of Change

What’s pushing the industry :What’s pushing the industry :

. Political power shift . Political power shift

. Global economic shift . Global economic shift

. Global values shift . Global values shift

. O . O&&G Big Rollover G Big Rollover

O & GO & G

Big Rollover :Big Rollover :

Supply > DemandSupply > Demand

Three Wise MonkeysThree Wise Monkeys

• Oil Companies : Oil Companies : - hear no depletion - hear no depletion

• Governments & International Agencies :Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion - see no depletion

• And all agree it would be best to :And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion - talk no depletion

Typical Oil Depletion Curve

Norway (North Sea)

Werner Zittel , LBST

2004

www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com

Saudi Reserves Seriously Overstated Matthew Simmons February 2004

Oil & Gas Journal April 12, 2004Douglas - Westwood Ltd

Cambridge UK

Study : World oil forecast

beset with reserves shortfalls

2004

2016

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Pro

du

cti

on

kb

/d

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Dis

co

very G

b (

sh

ad

ed

)

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

China

ASPO Newsletter 40 April 2004 www.PeakOil.netAssociation for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Oil discovery Oil production

Forecast ?

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

OGJ Reserves

2002 IHS Rpt

Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports

IHS and O&GJ Remaining Reserves

Francis Harper ASPO 2004, Berlin

www.PeakOil.net

Why are oil depletion forecasts being down played ?

" Do you wish to :

• Kill your careerKill your career

• Head the redundancy listHead the redundancy list

• Be blamed for starting the panic ?Be blamed for starting the panic ?""

Chris SkrebowskiChris Skrebowski Institute of Petroleum Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.netwww.PeakOil.net

Or is Big RolloverOr is Big Rollover : ( tick one ) : ( tick one )

a) Only part of humungous dilemmaa) Only part of humungous dilemma

b) Forcing too rapid changeb) Forcing too rapid change

c) Change to what ?c) Change to what ?

d) All too scaryd) All too scary

e) All of the above ore) All of the above or

f) Nonsensef) Nonsense

Everyone agrees :Everyone agrees :

Change is inevitable .Change is inevitable .

Your choice :Your choice :

Understand forces of changeUnderstand forces of change

oror

Be victim of future.Be victim of future.

What’s pushing the industry :What’s pushing the industry :

. Political power shift . Political power shift

. Global economic shift . Global economic shift

. Global values shift . Global values shift

. O . O&&G Big Rollover G Big Rollover

Global Economic powerGlobal Economic power

Economic domination 200 yrsEconomic domination 200 yrs

to Western Pacific Rimto Western Pacific Rim

Global Cultural powerGlobal Cultural power

Christian domination 500 yrsChristian domination 500 yrs

Estimated 2 billion people watched world mediaEstimated 2 billion people watched world media

to Confucian / Islam influenceto Confucian / Islam influence

Fastest robanoidFastest robanoid

Chi master class with MIT engineersChi master class with MIT engineers

Gap widening : Knowledge

• Haves / have nots

• Age generations

• Globally networked

Shifting Global ValuesShifting Global Values

About Technology not wealth

• Access

• Skilling

50 % world popn : no phone

Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism• economic rationalists : profit• material values : tangibles• science as religion : rational

• Generation X 30 – 45 yrs• clones of Boomers : materialists or• copy younger : sustainability

Four generations : Three worlds

• DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability

• global identity• co opitalism• relationships• holistic win - win – win

• Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www.cluetrainmanifesto.com

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Chinese Technology CentreChinese Technology Centre

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual

. no limits

. no boundaries

. parallel universes . quantum everything

. invent their world

. beyond our imagining

. Indigo children

Gap : Globally NetworkedGap : Globally Networked

• access all knowledge

• empowered

• confident

• passionately committed

• global view future

• one planet : one future

Impact for Energy IndustryImpact for Energy Industry

• transiting two worlds - accelerating

• values shifting to sustainability

• Big Rollover value driven

• cooperation not competition

• young non negotiators

• relationships : consumers partners innovators

Impact for Impact for AusAus Energy Industry Energy Industry industry leader - how to’s

global location - Asian partners

values shifting to sustainability

not changing fast enough

economic rationalist power

Big Rollover not on agenda

“ She’ll be right, mate.” Science.

Thriving with change :Thriving with change :

Thank youThank you www.annimac.com.au

Very special note of appreciation to

Bruce Robinson

www.STCwa.org.au

for his impeccable knowledge

regarding global Oil Depletion and his

generosity in sharing it.

Thank you, Bruce.

annimac