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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
先を見越したポジショニング低成長環境の機会探求
AUTOMOTIVE
Mike Jackson, Senior Executive, North America, Vehicle Production Forecasting +1-248-465-2833, mike.jackson@ihsmarkit.com
19 October, 2016 | Tokyo
© 2016 IHS Markit
Contents
北⽶⾃動⾞⽣産の展望
製品構成: Cars、SUVs、Trucks
市場⼒学
OEMレビュー
まとめ
Contents
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
百万台
NA Production
Recession
Linear (NA Production)
市場の評価 ポートフォリオ検証
– サイクルチェック
– 目標
– リスク予測
– 時間軸
– 需要
– 生産能力
– テクノロジー
リスク軽減
– 顧客基盤
– 多角化
– リスクヘッジ
アクション計画
– 評価
– 診断
– 実行
現在地
3
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
北米生産
不況
線形(北米生産)
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
L
多角化
ターゲット
&投資
市場
顧客
ブランド
車体形状
セグメント
ポジショニング
• 市場
• 顧客
• 製品
• テクノロジー
4
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
5146201732 34
201926
2021北米の自動車生産
5
189の立ち上げイベント
+9.4M+.8M +.6M
+10.2M1
5.8
15
.81
5.3
15
.11
2.6
8.6
11
.9 13
.1 15
.41
6.2
17
.01
7.5
18
.01
8.1
18
.21
8.6
18
.81
8.8
18
.71
8.6
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
百万
台
5
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.6
0.00
0.25
0.50
Hyundai
VW
Tesla
Geely
Subaru
Atieva
BM
W
Honda
Faraday
Daim
ler
Mazda
百万
台
北米のビジネスチャンス利得者が市場をしのぐ: 2016 - 2023
241%1.5M
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
北米の自動車生産
17.9 17.9 18.017.5
18.0 18.1 18.2
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
2015 2016 2017 2018
百万
台
Downside Production
2016• -50,000台• 在庫
2017• -200,000台• 在庫
2018• -200,000台• 遅れ
• ソーシング
質 vs 量
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
削減 生産
© 2016 IHS Markit 8
6.54.0
7.1 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.5
5.1
2.7
7.0 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.0 7.84.1
1.8
3.5 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
Carsは上昇、SUVsは急騰
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
ポートフォリオ比較 2015 年
9
OEM 台数 乗用車 SUV トラック
GM 3,433 31% 36% 34%Ford 3,105 31% 32% 37%FCA 2,758 20% 58% 22%
Toyota 2,034 48% 36% 15%Honda 1,862 48% 52% 0%
Ren/Nissan 1,767 58% 29% 13%Hyundai 756 65% 35% 0%
BMW 400 0% 100% 0%Daimler 327 29% 64% 7%VW 545 100% 0% 0%
その他 771 60% 40% 0%台数規模 ‐ 7,072 6,954 2,900北米平均 17,495 40% 40% 20%
$
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
ポートフォリオ比較 2023年
10
OEM 台数 乗用車 SUV トラック
GM 3,440 33% 40% 27%Ford 3,030 26% 37% 37%FCA 2,226 10% 65% 25%
Toyota 2,145 49% 36% 14%Honda 2,013 48% 50% 2%
Ren/Nissan 1,645 59% 30% 12%Hyundai 1,221 67% 29% 3%
BMW 461 27% 73% 0%Daimler 379 18% 72% 10%VW 880 64% 36% 0%
その他 1534 54% 46% 0%台数規模 ‐ 7,549 7,821 3,245北米平均 18,615 41% 42% 17%
$
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
ContentsPresentation Name / Month 2016
北⽶⾃動⾞⽣産展望
製品構成: Cars、SUVs、Trucks
市場⼒学
OEMレビュー
まとめ
© 2016 IHS Markit
Car生産2016 - 2023
12
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Small Midsize Fullsize
+485K
+127K
- 51K
+561K
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
Car 2016 2019 2023
US3 2,305 1,976 2,152 -14% 9%
Asian4 3,585 3,673 3,818 2% 4%
German3 595 666 755 12% 13%
その他 504 826 824 64% 0%
Small 3,293 3,499 3,778
6% 8%
Midsize 3,293 3,316 3,420
1% 3%
Fullsize 402 327 351
-19% 7%
© 2016 IHS Markit
地域別Carプロファイル
13
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Mexico Share % US Mexico Canada
米国
• SUVへさらにシフト
• 工場設備一新
• スタートアップ
メキシコ
• 多額の投資
• 未開発地域
• テクノロジー機会
カナダ
• SUVへさらにシフト
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
SUV生産2016 - 2023
14
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Small Midsize Fullsize
SUV 2016 2019 2023
US3 3,939 4,095 3,914 4% -4%
Asian4 2,302 2,328 2,269 1% -3%
German3 664 983 928 48% -6%
その他 304 474 710 56% 50%
Small 1,965 2,369 2,334
21% -1%Midsize 2,771 3,133 3,263
13% 4%Fullsize 2,473 2,378 2,224
-4% -6%
+612K
+370K
+492K
-250K
SUV = SUV/CUV/MPV
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Truck生産2016 - 2023
15
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Van Midsize Pickup Fullsize Pickup
トラック 2016 2019 2023
US3 3,088 2,952 2,631 -4% -11%
Asian4 674 629 578 -7% -8%
German3 41 36 36 -11% 0%
その他 - - -- -
Van 451 378 365
-16% -3%Midsize Pickup 630 715 632
14% -12%FullsizePickup 2,723 2,525 2,248
-7% -11%
‐558K
- 85K-
- 475K
Truck = Pickup, Van (LCV)
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 16
中型車が急成長
• 2010 = 361,000• 2015 = 511,000• 2020 = 700,000
+36%
2013 20232016 2019
RangerCompact Pickup
Santa Cruz
CanyonColorado
RidgelineFrontierTacoma
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
ContentsPresentation Name / Month 2016
北⽶⾃動⾞⽣産展望
製品構成: Cars、SUVs、Trucks
市場⼒学
OEMレビュー
まとめ
© 2016 IHS Markit 18
050
100150200250300350
Ford
VW
GM
Hyundai
Toyota
Daim
ler
BM
W
Mazda
Honda
メキシコの生産機会利得者が市場をしのぐ: 2016 – 2023年
230%1.5M
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
メキシコの自動車生産
19
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
メキシコ 2016 2019 2023
US3 1,602 2,137 2,145 33% 0%
Asian4 1,287 1,616 1,627 26% 1%
German3 441 824 953 87% 16%
その他 164 155 182 -6% 18%
Car 1,988 2,481 2,808
25% 13%SUV 561 1,366 1,361
121% 0%Truck 945 886 739
0% -17%
+819K
+800K
-207K
+1.4M
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 20
世界のEV生産
0.0
.1
0.6
0.4
1.8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
百万
台
NA EV ROW EV NA EV Share China EV Share
CAGR = 27.5%2023: 1.1M
CAGR = 28.3%2023: .6M
19 ネームプレート
146 ネームプレート
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 21
挑戦
ToyotaHondaNissanFordBMW
VolkswagenChevrolet
AudiLexusMazda
© 2016 IHS Markit
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
新たなモビリティメーカー
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007 2012 2017 2022NA Production
TeslaModel 3
公表
• Tesla• Atieva• Faraday• Apple• Google
アクション
• 競合から勝ち取る
• 経済的障壁
• サイズとスケール
• 技術リスク
• 競争
いつ?
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
北米生産
© 2016 IHS Markit
ContentsPresentation Name / Month 2016
北⽶⾃動⾞⽣産展望
製品構成: Cars、SUVs、Trucks
市場⼒学
OEMレビュー
まとめ
© 2016 IHS Markit
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
General Motors
24
2016 2019 2023
GM 3,653 3,558 3,440 -3% -3%
Buick 162 88 100 -46% 14%
Cadillac 204 299 262 47% -12%
Chevrolet 2,596 2,503 2,449 -4% -2%
GMC 691 619 586 -10% -5%
Car 1,171 1,024 1,141-13% 11%
SUV 1,240 1,459 1,36018% -7%
Truck 1,242 1,075 939-13% -13%
+43 9 12 14 3 52017 2019 2021
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Ford
25
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
FMC 3,078 2,958 3,030 -4% 2%
Ford 2,908 2,786 2,849 -4% 2%
Lincoln 170 172 181 1% 5%
Car 805 733 788-9% 8%
SUV 1,090 1,027 1,111-6% 8%
Truck 1,183 1,199 1,1311% -6%
2 2 6 8 22017 2019 2021
+20
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
26
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
FCA 2,601 2,508 2,226
-4% -11%Chrysler 246 378 342
54% -10%Dodge 612 290 215
-53% -26%Jeep 1,066 1,192 1,121
12% -6%Ram 664 644 549
-3% -15%
Car 328 220 223
-33% 2%SUV 1,609 1,609 1,442
0% -10%Truck 664 678 560
2% -17%
+183 7 3 5 -
2017 2019 2021
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Toyota
27
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
TMC 2,176 2,117 2,145 -3% 1%
Lexus 161 144 147 -11% 3%
Toyota 2,015 1,973 1,997 -2% 1%
Car 1,040 941 1,060-10% 13%
SUV 780 828 7766% -6%
Truck 356 348 309-2% -11%
20172 3 7 2
20191
2021+15
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Honda
28
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
HMC 1,962 1,999 2,013 2% 1%
Acura 195 186 185 -5% -1%
Honda 1,767 1,813 1,828 3% 1%
Car 923 934 9671% 4%
SUV 1,005 1,029 1,0062% -2%
Truck 34 36 404% 12%
+18 4 2 1 7 42017 2019 2021
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Renault-Nissan
29
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
Ren-Nis 1,846 1,668 1,645 -10% -1%
Infiniti 52 119 150 126% 26%
Nissan 1,793 1,547 1,493 -14% -3%
Renault 1 3 2 184% -12%
Car 1,046 984 967-6% -2%
SUV 517 472 487-9% 3%
Truck 284 212 191-25% -10%
+18 20175 3 4 2
20194
2021
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Hyundai
30
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
HMC 851 1,223 1,221 44% 0%
Hyundai 496 694 695 40% 0%
Kia 355 529 526 49% -1%
Car 576 813 82341% 1%
SUV 275 376 35937% -5%
Truck 0 34 38- 13%
+14 20172 5 1 3
20193
2021
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Volkswagen
31
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
VW 530 841 880 59% 5%
Audi 12 128 162 928% 26%
VW 517 713 718 38% 1%
Car 517 492 561-5% 14%
SUV 12 350 3192699% -9%
Truck 0 0 0- -
+9 20172 2 1 -
20194
2021
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
BMW
32
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
BMW 409 415 4611% 11%
Car 0 40 125- 216%
SUV 409 375 336-8% -10%
Truck 0 0 0- -
+7 20171 3 2 -
20191
2021
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Daimler
33
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
2016 2019 2023
Daimler 360 430 37919% -12%
Car 77 135 7075% -48%
SUV 242 258 2727% 6%
Truck 41 36 36-11% 0%
+7 2017- 2 5 -
2019-
2021
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 34
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
百万
台
Car SUV Truck
その他メーカー2016 2019 2023
Subaru 286 430 398 50% -8%
Mazda 164 155 182 -6% 18%
Tesla 82 265 386 224% 46%
Car 504 826 82464% 0%
SUV 304 474 71056% 50%
Truck 0 0 0- -
20171 1 6 2
20191
2021+7
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
ContentsPresentation Name / Month 2016
北⽶⾃動⾞⽣産展望
製品構成: Cars、SUVs、Trucks
市場⼒学
OEMレビュー
まとめ
© 2016 IHS Markit
まとめ: 先を見越したポジショニング
• リスクの軽減: 低成長が高いリスク行動につながる
• 計画的にリスクを冒して将来の投資計画を立てる
• 先を見越してビジネスポートフォリオを管理; 転換点に先立つ行動
• 監査: コア能力とリスク予測に合わせた将来戦略
• 低ボリュームの立ち上げ/投資活動の増加 – 利益の絞り出しを促進
• レバレッジ: 健全な機会をとらえ市場ストレス増加にしたがって成長
• 市場が勢いを維持する間が行動を起こす絶好の機会
• 多角化: 求められるグローバルな視点
• 専門性を発展できるグローバルな機会を活用; 中国OEM&サプライヤは進出に前向きに取り組み、リスクと恩恵を提示
Automotive Conference – Tokyo | October 2016
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