BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

International Reserves and Production

BERR Energy Markets Outlook Natural Gas Event16th

April 2008

Paul ApplebyBP Group Economics

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

World Gas Reserves

0

100

200

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

North America S. & Cent. America Europe Africa Asia Pacific Former Soviet Union Middle East

Trillion cubic metres

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

Distribution of Gas Reserves 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Trillion cubic metres

Russia

Qatar

Iran

•

Top 3 = 56% of global reserves•

Top 10 = 75%

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

Distribution of Gas Reserves 2006 (cont’d)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Trillion cubic metres

USANigeria

Algeria

Norway

Netherlands

UK

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

A note on Reserves and Resources

Reserves

are “indentified

accumulations that can be extracted profitably with existing technology under present economic conditions”. (McCabe, p. 2113)

−

estimates depend on views about existing technology and current

economic conditions

−

most additions to reserves come from existing fields –

investing in extensions, enhanced recovery

Resources

are reserves plus all the accumulations of a fossil fuel that may eventually become available –

inherently vague definition

−

Judgments about which resources are potentially economic are very subjective

−

the warehouse concept applies to resources as well as reserves

“Historically perceptions of the amount of fossil fuel resources have had a profound impact on many political and investment decisions. In retrospect many of these perceptions have been ill founded.”

(McCabe, p.2119)

McCabe P (1998)

Energy Resources -

Cornucopia or Empty Barrel? American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin Vol

82 No 11 November

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

Estimate of World Gas Resources

Source: IEA (2005) Resources to Reserves

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

World Gas Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

North America S. & Cent. America Europe Africa Asia Pacific Former Soviet Union Middle East

Billion cubic metres

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

Distribution of Gas Production 2006

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Billion cubic metres

Russia

Canada

USA•

Top 3 = 46% of global production•

Top 10 = 66%

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

Distribution of Gas Production 2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Billion cubic metres

Norway

UKAlgeria

Netherlands

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

N America Europe S & CAmerica

FSU Africa Middle East Asia Pacific

Regional Growth of Gas Production

Billion cubic metres

5 year cumulative changes in natural gas production by region

1991-

1996

2001-

2006

1996-

2001

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

0 30 60

Russia

Iran

Norway

China

Egypt

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Trinidad

Turkmenistan

Nigeria

Malaysia

Kazakhstan

Oman

Growth of Gas Production

Billion cubic metres

2001-06 cumulative growth in natural gas production by country

Pipeline

LNG

Predominant transport mode:

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

Growth of Gas Trade

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Pipeline LNGBcm

Excludes intra-CIS trade

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007

Global Gas Supply Issues

Increasing cost of supply

−

extraction (e.g. drilling deeper, further offshore)

−

transportation (more remote sources)

−

capital cost inflation

Developing non-conventional sources

−

technology challenges

Willingness of producers to export

Geo-politics of long distance transportation