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CAS: Central Instrument for Managing for Results
The Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy: Central Instrument for
Managing for Results
Erika Jorgensen, OPCS
February 24, 2005 3
“RESULTS FOCUS IN COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGIES:
A STOCKTAKING OF RESULTS-BASED CASs”
A paper for the Board, scheduled for March 10 informal discussion
Based on interviews, document review, Board comments, lessons already compiled
February 24, 2005 4
WHAT?
A Country Assistance Strategy that contains a strong orientation toward achieving realistic outcomes and a results-oriented monitoring and evaluation system
February 24, 2005 5
WHAT? (continued)
Pilot phase launched by 2003 CAS Retro
7 official pilots, only 2 in MICs Spontaneous mainstreaming Africa Region mainstreams
September 2003
February 24, 2005 6
FROM WHERE? Results Agenda Shareholders and stakeholders Drive for modernization and
simplification
February 24, 2005 7
WHY? Better definition of Bank’s impact Fill in the “missing middle” Better strategy, with higher chances
of success and greater development effectiveness
Strengthen ‘pillars’ of the CAS
February 24, 2005 8
Impact on the CAS of a Greater Focus on Results
Pillars of the CAS Aspects strengthened by
a focus on results
Results (monitoring and evaluation
of achievement)
· Definition of intended outcomes to which the CAS program directly contributes
· Monitoring and management during implementation
· Use of lessons learned
Vision
(country’s development goals)
· Alignment with country-owned strategy
Diagnosis (Bank assessment)
· Analysis of issues and proposed strategy to address them, including cross-sectoral emphasis
Program
(of Bank lending and nonlending activities)
· Selectivity and partnership
Results-
Based CAS
February 24, 2005 9
WHAT (again)? Results framework
logical links between country goals and Bank activities
Results Matrix summary of framework in CAS document
Outcomes, milestones, and indicators
Capacity constraints
February 24, 2005 10
Example of a Results Chain for a CAS Results Framework
Country Development Goal
Improved literacy rates.
Medium-term Outcome Improved student achievement scores on tests at primary
level.
RE
SUL
TS
Shorter-term Outcome Teachers use improved curriculum in the classrooms.
Outputs Teachers trained in new curriculum.
Activities Train teachers; simplify primary school curriculum.
DE
VE
LO
PME
NT
INT
ER
VE
NT
ION
Inputs Additional funds for primary schools.
February 24, 2005 11
Schematic of the CAS Results Framework
Long-term Country Outcomes
CAS Results
Bank Interventions
Country development goals
“What are the longer term or higher order development objectives identified by the
country?”
Issues and obstacles
“What are the critical issues and obstacles to achieving country development goals?”
Milestones
“What are the outputs, actions, or outcomes expected to be realized during CAS
implementation that can serve as progress markers towards CAS outcomes?”
CAS outcomes
“What are the highest order results achievable in the CAS period and which the Bank expects to
influence directly through its interventions?”
Bank and partner programs
“What are the ongoing and planned lending and nonlending activities by the Bank and key
partners that are expected to influence CAS outcomes?”
Milestones warn if CAS outcomes are
unlikely to materialize and need
adjustment
Ongoing portfolio strongly
influences results
achievable in near-term
Medium level outcomes linked to Bank activities help select which country goals the
Bank can support Diagnosis
identifies what is achievable
during the CAS period
Activities selected to
further progress towards
outcomes
Shortfalls on milestones
spur recalibration of activities
February 24, 2005 12
CAS Results Matrix:Excerpt from Cameroon CAS
Country Development Goals Issues and Obstacles CAS Outcomes Milestones Bank Program (and Partners)
Definition: Longer-term or higher-order development objectives identified by the country. Usually not achievable in the CAS period nor solely addressed by the CAS program. Only those to which CAS outcomes will contribute are included.
Definition: Critical issues and obstacles to achieving country development goals, providing the logical link to CAS outcomes.
Definition: Results achievable in the CAS period and which the Bank expects to influence through its interventions. Indicators of each outcome are included, with baselines and targets.
Definition: Progress markers of CAS implementation; outputs, actions, or outcomes expected to be realized during CAS implementation.
Definition: Ongoing and planned lending, grants, and guarantees; analytical and advisory activities. Includes IBRD, IDA, IFC, MIGA. Partners included if cofinancing or other support of same CAS outcome.
Reduction in Rural Poverty
Decrease in the poverty incidence in rural areas from 49.9% (2001).
Maternal mortality rates decrease from 430 per 100,000 (1998) disaggregated by rural area.
Child mortality decreases from 77 per 1000 (1998) disaggregated by rural area.
100% primary school completion rates by 2015, from 56% (2001) disaggregated by rural area.
Determinants of Rural Poverty
Lack of education among heads of households is a key determinant of rural poverty.
Relative isolation (enclavement) due to a lack of physical infrastructure (mainly roads) and no adequate support for road maintenance.
Isolation from social services (health and education), especially in rural areas.
Low level of coordination between ministries in charge of rural water, and low local capacity and skills for water supply infrastructure
20% of the poor have no financial social coverage.
Improved Delivery of Basic Services (sustainable management of service delivery at the community level for rural communities in 4 targeted provinces):
% of rural communities in the 4 provinces with access to basic socio-economic services (baseline in FY04), including:
- Increase in access to water (baseline: 58%). - Decrease in time to get to school. - Increased use of rural health care clinics. % of communities in the 4 provinces who have functioning elected committees.
50% of the 4000 rural communities targeted have fully implemented one micro-project (roads, schools, hospitals, etc) by 2006.
Over 4,000 rural community based action plans designed and implemented between 2003 and end 2005.
Increased involvement of women and vulnerable groups in decision-making, definition of priority action plans, and implementation oversight.
Lending - Ongoing Agricultural Extension and Services; Petroleum Environment Capacity Enhancement; Douala Infrastructure. Lending - Proposed FY04 : National Community Driven Development; FY06: PRSC (rural development). AAA - Ongoing FY03: Expenditure tracking and beneficiary assessments. AAA - Proposed FY04 : Health Sector Reform Note; Gender Strategy (IDF). FY06: Poverty Assessment. PARTNERS Cofinancing of PNDP by AFD, IFAD, KfW and Netherlands cooperation.
February 24, 2005 13
Tracking of CAS Results
Design Implementation Evaluation
CAS document CAS Progress Report CAS Completion Report
Storyline follows logic of results framework
CAS Results Matrix
Completion Report of previous CAS
Discussion of progress and any midpoint course correction
Monitoring matrix
Self-evaluation
Completion matrix
Included in next CAS document
Management monitoring and learning OED Review of
Completion Report
Lessons for next CAS
February 24, 2005 14
HOW? Session 2a “Managing for Results in
Country Programming” 11:30-1.00 p.m MC13-121
February 24, 2005 15
WHEN? Timing of Development of the Results-Based CAS Pilots
Results-based CAS Pilot
IBRD/ IDA Region
Concept Review Board Date
Months from Concept to
Board
Sri Lanka IDA SAR 10/31/2002 4/1/2003 5.1
Cameroon IDA AFR 2/5/2003 9/11/2003 7.3
Ukraine IBRD ECA 9/3/2002 10/23/2003 13.8
Mozambique IDA AFR 10/25/2002 11/20/2003 13.0
Brazil IBRD LCR 1/15/2003 12/9/2003 10.9
Zambia IDA AFR 9/26/2002 3/10/2004 17.7
Armenia IDA ECA 11/18/2003 6/10/2004 6.8
AVERAGE 10.7 Average for all other CASs during FY04 9.3
February 24, 2005 16
ARE YOU SURE ABOUT THIS?Findings of the Pilot Phase
Contribution, not attribution Results delivered by ongoing portfolio Outcomes will be limited in some cases Initial CAS Completion Report
• rethinking the previous CAS Statistical capacity is crucial
February 24, 2005 17
Average CAS Design Cost for Full CASs, FY00-04 ($'000)
167.9
206.9188.7
175.2
249.3
0
100
200
300
FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
February 24, 2005 18
DO WE KNOW WHAT WE’RE DOING?
Emerging good practice CAS as roadmap core set of outcomes and indicators balance availability and relevance in
selecting indicators limit outcomes to fit country
circumstances adaptability and experimentation in MICs
February 24, 2005 19
DO WE KNOW WHAT WE’RE DOING (cont.)?
participation and early start improve CAS Completion Reports’ contribution to next CAS
initial CAS CR• Retrofitting should be limited
monitoring during implementation• results focus in CPPR• annual reviews of progress
February 24, 2005 20
WHEN (again)?Next steps
Guidance and learning BP 2.11 guidelines for staff good practice
Ratings in CAS Completion Reports
February 24, 2005 21
MORE QUESTIONSChallenges going forward
Managing expectations identifying CAS outcomes quality of results frameworks Statistical capacity
Aiming at simplicity and flexibility further experimentation in MICs emphasis on simplicity
February 24, 2005 22
MORE QUESTIONS (cont.)
Incentives that support results results vs. deliveries near-term focus quality of interventions continuity
Overloading of the CAS Countries’ capacity to manage for
results
February 24, 2005 23
RESOURCES AND FURTHER LEARNING
Board paper CAS Academy (March 16-17) Frontiers in Bank Operations OPCS and Regional websites Pilot teams OPCS staff
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