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Coastal Adaptation Mixing Gray and Green Infrastructures to Climate Change in Vietnam
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January 23, 2019@Hanoi, Vietnam4th NIES International Forum
Makoto Tamura*Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science,
Ibaraki University, Japan
This study was partly supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S‐14&2‐1712) of the Ministry of the Environment in Japan.
Soc Trang, Vietnam, 2015
2015/11/24
2015/11/24
3Tamura et al.(2018)
Method
Impact assessment with and without adaptationDike and
mangrove
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Impact assessment with and without adaptation<No adaptation>・Inundated area and coastline・Affected population・Economic damage
Steric sea level rise ・MIROC-ESM・RCP (8.5)
Construction of elevation data in land and sea・ETOPO1=> smoothing for land elevation and water depth・TPXO7.2=> mean higher high water level (MHHWL)
Calculation of inundation ・Compare land elevation with sea level ・Water intrusion from the coastline
Socioeconomic scenarios・Downscaled SSP 1-3
(0.5×0.5 degrees)
<Adaptation: dike & mangrove >・Inundated area and coastline・Affected population・Economic damage・Cost of adaptation・Benefit-cost of adaptation
Cost database of adaptation・Dike & mangrove
Kumano et al.(2018)
Potentially inundated area (SLR&tide)
6Potentially inundated areas and affected population due to SLR and high tide(MIROC‐ESM)
SLR by MIROC-ESMPotentially inundated areas is
calculated without protectionSSP1-3
scenarios(0.5°*0.5°) Murakami and Yamagata(2016)
Potential inundated areas due to SLR and high tide at 2100 (MIROC‐ESM, RCP8.5 )
Modified from Yotsukuri et al.(2017)
inundated area
Coastal inundation due to SLR in some countries (MIROC-ESM)
Inundated rate= potential inundated area/Land area
MIROC-ESM, RCP/SSPTop 10 inundated countries are
almost the same regardless of GCMs (Tsuchida et al. 2018)
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Potentially inundated areas
Modified from Yotsukuri et al.(2017) Affected population
Cost of coastal adaptation
Design standards and cost database of adaptations from world projects
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14 countries 89 points20 countries 455 points 20 countries 134 points
10 102 103 104 1050
10
20
30
40
Real GDP/Capita(US$)
Cos
t (10
KU
S$/h
a)
アメリカ(21)インド(2)インドネシア(1)エリトリア(1)オーストラリア(12)タイ(7)ニュージーランド(1)
バングラディッシュ(1)フィリピン(10)ブラジル(7)ベトナム(9)マレーシア(14)メキシコ(2)モザンピーク(1)
アメリカ(70)イギリス(5)イタリア(3)インドネシア(7)オーストラリア(5)オランダ(9)ガーナ(1)カンボジア(1)シリア(4)スペイン(2)
デンマーク(2)ドイツ(3)バングラディッシュ(1)フランス(2)ベトナム(5)ベルギー(1)ポルトガル(1)ホンデュラスラトビア(2)南アフリカ(1)
10 102 103 104 1050
10
20
30
40
50
Real GDP/Capita(US$)
Cos
t (U
S$/m
3 )
10 102 103 104 105
010
20
30
40
50
6070
Real GDP/Capita(US$)
Cos
t (M
US$
/km
)
全球費用
USA(94)UK(22)Italy(1)Indonesia(10)Estonia(1)Australia(4)Netherlands(28)
Ghana(2)Cambodia(6)Syria(6)Thailand(1)Denmark(1)Germany(16)Bangladesh(2)
Brazil(3)Vietnam(58)Honduras(4)Latvia(1)South Africa(2)Japan(194)
USA (94)UK (22)Italy (1)Indonesia (10)Estonia (1)Australia (4)Netherlands (28)
Ghana (2)Cambodia (6)Syria (6)Thailand (1)Denmark (1)Germany (16)Bangladesh (2)
Brazil (3)Vietnam (58)Honduras (4)Latvia (1)South Africa (2)Japan (194)
MangrovesBeach nourishmentDike/sea walls
Unit cost of coastal adaptations (Kumano et al. 2018)
USA(21)India(21)Indonesia(1)Eritrea(1)Australia(12)Thailand(7)New Zealand(1)
Bangladesh(1)Philippines(10)Brazil(7)Vietnam(9)Malaysia(14)Mexico(2)Mozambique(1)
USA(70)UK(5)Italy(3)Indonesia(7)Australia(5)Netherland(9)Ghana(1)Cambodia(1)Syria (4)Spain (2)
Denmark(2)Germany(3)Bangladesh(1)France(2)Vietnam(5)Belgium(9)Portugal(1)Honduras(1)Latvia(4)South Africa(2)
Assessment of adaptations
Case 1: Dikes will be constructed along the entire inundated coastline in response to SLR.
Case 2: Mangroves will be planted periodically in inundated coastal areas where mangrove forests already exist. Dikes will be only constructed along inundated coastline where there is no mangrove forests.
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Dike Durability is 30 years
MangroveForest grows for 30 yearsForest life is 50 years2% decrease in area per year
Maintenance CostCj,t(US$):Durability(30 years)d(year):
Length of the inundated coastline (km) Lj,t(km):
Construction Costs
Case 1: Dike protection only Case 2: Combination of dikes and mangroves
Around 250m of mangroves alongthe coast are assumed to have aprotection effect equivalent to thesame length of dike.
Assumptions
1km
250m
, , ,t j t j t j tAC L UC MC
, , ,1
j t j t j tMC L UCd
Mangrove protectionGrowth scenarios of planting mangrove
• Plant every 5 years to compensate the decreased amount• Initial and maintenance costs
1t at
BAYe
tts e s
t t tY s Y BA:area of mangrovea:growth parameter(0.4) : lifetime parameter(0.1)
• Growth rate: sigmoid type • Survival rate:
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 20 40 60 80 1000.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 20 40 60 80 100
Amount of planting
Cost of plantingmangrove t mangroveAC M c
0.1st t t t n t nM Y Y Y Y
Impacts of SLR
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LandMangroveMangrove outside of landOcean Inundated area
Potentially inundated area under RCP8.5
Affected population under RCP8.5
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
36
38
40
42
Inun
date
d ar
ea(1
03km
2 )
34
32
30
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
10
12
8
14
16
18
20
Affe
cted
pop
ulat
ion
(106 )
SSP1
SSP2SSP3
Kumano et al.(2018)
Potentially inundated area in 2100 and mangrove distribution(MIROC‐ESM, RCP8.5, TroCEP)
Economic damage and adaptationcost in Vietnam (MIROC-ESM)
Economic damage > cost of adaptationCost of only dike > cost of
mixing dike & mangrove
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Economic damage due to SLR and tides (RCP8.5)2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
35
25
10
0
30
15
5
20
Econ
omic
dam
age(
109
US$
) SSP1SSP2SSP3
B/C of adaptation (RCP8.5)
SSP1 Dike + MangroveSSP1 DikeSSP2 Dike + MangroveSSP2 DikeSSP3 Dike + MangroveSSP3 Dike
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
30
20
10
0
Ada
ptat
ion
cost
(109
US$
)
25
15
5
Cost of adaptation (RCP8.5)
SSP1 Dike + Mangrove
SSP1 DikeSSP3 Dike + Mangrove
SSP3 Dike
SSP2 Dike + Mangrove
SSP2 Dike
Kumano et al.(2018)
Economic damage and adaptationcost in the world (MIROC-ESM)Adaptation => raising dikes (new dikes or upgraded dikes)
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Cost of adaptation Economic damage w & w/o adaptation (three‐function estimate) Tamura et al.(2019)
Inundated area w & w/o adaptation Affected population w & w/o adaptation
Multiple Protection
Mixed techniques which are suitable for local situationMultiple protection, harmonized with ecosystem and livelihoodsArtificial beach
nourishmentMangroveGabion
(a) Combination with artificial beach nourishment
(b) Combination with mangrove plantation
(c) Combination with gabion
Mangrove
ReinforcedLevee
Wave eater(e.g., Distorted Ripple Mat)
Artificial Beach Nourishment Reinforced
LeveeBreaking wave
GabionReinforced
Levee
Wave eater(e.g., Distorted Ripple Mat)
Breaking wave
Wave eater(e.g., Distorted Ripple Mat)
Breaking wave
Yasuhara et al.(2016)
Optimal climate change adaptation strategies using green & gray infrastructures
From scientific assessments to policies
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Research image
Concluding remarks
Global impact assessment of SLR based on RCP/SSPCoastal vulnerability in the Mekong Delta and Red River Delta Impact and cost analyses of coastal protection using both gray and green infrastructures against SLROnly dikes vs. mixing dikes and mangroves
• Economic damage > cost of adaptationMultiple protection, harmonized with ecosystem and
livelihoodsResilient adaptation strategies that are suitable in local situationScientific assessment and collaboration with local
stakeholders
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References Kumano N, Tamura M, Inoue T, Yokoki H (2018). Estimating the cost of coastal protection using
green infrastructure against sea level rise in Philippines and Vietnam. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers G (Environment), 74(5), I_395-I_404 (in Japanese).
Ling FH, Tamura M, Yasuhara K, Ajima K, Trinh VC (2015). Reducing flood risks in rural households: Survey of perception and adaptation in the Mekong Delta. Climatic Change, 132(2), 209-222.
MONRE (2016). Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Viet Nam. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.
Murakami D, Yamagata Y (2016). Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling, ArXiv, 1610.09041.
Tamura M, Yasuhara K, Ajima K, Trinh VC, Pham SV (2018). Vulnerability to climate change and residents’ adaptations in coastal areas of Soc Trang Province, Vietnam. International Journal of Global Warming,16(1), 102-117.
Tamura M, Yotsukuri M, Kumano K, Yokoki H (2019).Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios. Climatic Change, 15p. (in press).
Tsuchida K, Tamura M, Kumano N, Masunaga E, Yokoki H (2018). Global impact and uncertainty assessment of sea level rise based on multiple climate models. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers G (Environment), 74(5), I_167-I_174 (in Japanese).
Tuan LA, Hoanh CT, Miller F, Sinh BT (2007). Flood and salinity management in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. In: Be TT, Sinh BT, Miller F (eds.), Challenges to Sustainable Development in the Mekong Delta: Regional and National Policy Issues and Research Needs. The Sustainable Mekong Research Network, 15-68.
Yasuhara K, Tamura M, Trinh CV, Do MD (2016). Geotechnical adaptation to the Vietnamese coastal and riverine erosion in the context of climate change. Geotechnical Engineering Journal of the SEAGS & AGSSEA, 47(1), 7-14.
Yotsukuri M, Tamura M, Kumano N, Masunaga E, Yokoki H (2017). Global impact assessment of sea level rise based on RCP/SSP scenarios. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers G (Environment), 73(5), I_369-I_376 (in Japanese).
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