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Dr. Jan SendzimirHead – Water and Resilience GroupRisk, Policy and Vulnerability Program
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Condition of the World’s Fisheries
OUTLINE
• Challenges of Resource Management• The Promise of Social Science• Adaptive Systems Science• Afforestation of the Sahel: an example
How to avoid tragedy of the commmons?
Answer no 1: State Control
Trust national actors not localsExternal, central authorities must impose rules for regional control.
How to avoid tragedy of the commmons?
Answer no 2: Privatization
Enforcement of rules
doesn’t come automatically
State Control and Privatization:High failure rate
GlobalAveragesCan Deceive
Sources: Primavera 1997, Rosenberry 1998, Kautsky et al. 2000
Thailand
Indonesia
Taiwan
India
China
Global Shrimp Aquaculture Production
The world mayseem robust butlocal regimes maynot be resilientand collapse
• Challenges of Resource Management• The Promise of Social Science• Afforestation of the Sahel: an example• Adaptive Science
OUTLINE
Struggle to Govern the CommonsTragedy is not inevitable
Empirical Research:Local resource users can self‐organize
to cooperatively develop their own institutional regulations to manage
common pool resources in sustainable ways
Demonstrated in more than 500 case studies around the world e.g.:
Forests (India, Thailand)Fisheries (Brazil, Philippines, India, USA)
Irrigated Agriculture (India, Nepal).Many others
Elinor Ostrom
Sustainability requires integrating multiple perspectives
InternationalNational
Regional
Local
Subsidiarity
EnvironmentEconomySocial / Political / Cultural
But which perspectives?
Sustainability requires integrating multiple perspectives
Environmental Degradation in the Sahel results from
Environment Agricultural PracticesEconomy DemographicsSocial / Political / Cultural Culture
Source: Krebs, J., and M. J. Coe. 1985. Sahel famine: an ecological perspective. Nature 317:13‐14.
Inadequate Governance is responsible for
Environment FaminesEconomy Economic DisastersSocial / Political / Cultural Political Regime Behavior
Source: von Braun, J., T. Teklu, and P. Webb. 1999. Famine in Africa: causes, responses, andpreventions. Food Policy Statement No. 28. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D.C., USA. [online] URL: http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/FPS/ fps28.htm
Revitalizing Rural Africarequires investing in 3 areas
Environment NatureEconomy WealthSocial / Political / Cultural Power
Source: Anderson et al. (2002) Nature, wealth and power: emerging best practice for revitalizingrural Africa. United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Washington, D.C., USA.
OUTLINE
• Challenges of Resource Management• The Promise of Social Science• Adaptive Systems Science• Afforestation of the Sahel: an example
Ways of explaining reality
Events What just happened?
Events What just happened?
Patterns, TrendsWhat’s been happening?Have we been here or some place similar before?
Ways of explaining reality
Ways of explaining reality
Events What just happened?
Patterns, TrendsWhat’s been happening?Have we been here or some place similar before?
Systemic StructuresWhat are the forces at play contributing to these patterns?
Events
Patterns, Trends
Systemic Structures
Drought
Tree Trends – decline & rise
Environmental Quality
Soil Moisture
SoilFertility
Local Sense ofTree Ownership
Tree Cultivation+
Tree Density
++
Tree Growth. +
Tree Removal.
-
<Local Decisionand Enforcement
Capacity>
+
<Local andRegional Learningand Knowledge>
+
+
-
+
Wind Speed
ET
Fodder in fields
Crop Planting
LocalRainfall
Drought Durationand Intensity
+
-
+-
+
+
+
-
Livestock use ofFarmers' Fields
+
+
LocalAgrobiodiversity
+
+
+
Circular Causation:Known all over the World• French• Spanish• English• Dutch• German• Polish• Russian• Finnish• Hungarian• Arabic• Turkish
• Cercle vicieux• Circulo vicioso• Vicious circle• Vicieuze cirkel• Teufels kreis• Błedne koło• Porochnyi krug• Noidankehä• Ördögi kör• Daira farigha• Fasit Daire
Car TrafficVolume
Danger toBicycles
Ride car notbicycles
21
Assessment
PolicyFormulation
ManagementActions
Monitoring andEvaluation
as Test ofHypothesis
PolicyImplementation
Research and Management Linked in a Cycle of Integrated Learning
Adaptive Management
OUTLINE
• Challenges of Resource Management• The Promise of Social Science• Adaptive Systems Science• Afforestation of the Sahel: an example
Vegetation in Galma, Niger
197519752003
More people andmore treesMore people andmore trees
Niger Population 4 million12 million
STUDYING SUCCESSFUL REGIME CHANGES
The Niger‐Nigeria Border: same ecosystem, different institutions
Source: Google Earth, 2005
Niger
Nigeria
The people of Niger are doing something different.
50 km
Less Rain
More Rain
Reference Mode: Tree CoverDecline and then Recovery
2005200519751975
19551955
aa
bb cc
ab
c
Environmental Quality
Soil Moisture
SoilFertility
Local Sense ofTree Ownership
Tree Cultivation+
Tree Density
++
Tree Growth. +
Tree Removal.
-
<Local Decisionand Enforcement
Capacity>
+
<Local andRegional Learningand Knowledge>
+
+
-
+
Wind Speed
ET
Fodder in fields
Crop PlantingSuccess
LocalRainfall
Drought Durationand Intensity
+
-
+-
+
+
+
-
Livestock use ofFarmers' Fields
+
+
LocalAgrobiodiversity
+
+
+
Tree Dynamics in the Fields
Environmental Quality
Soil Moisture
SoilFertility
Local Sense ofTree Ownership
Tree Cultivation+
Tree Density
++
Tree Growth. +
Tree Removal.
-
<Local Decisionand Enforcement
Capacity>
+
<Local andRegional Learningand Knowledge>
+
+
-
+
Wind Speed
ET
Fodder in fields
Crop PlantingSuccess
LocalRainfall
Drought Durationand Intensity
+
-
+-
+
+
+
-
Livestock use ofFarmers' Fields
+
+
LocalAgrobiodiversity
+
+
+
Trees in Farmers’ Fields
Field Microclimate
Environmental Quality
SoilMoisture
Soil Fertility
Local Sense ofTree Ownership
Tree Cultivation
+
Tree Density+
+
Tree Growth +
TreeRemoval
-
+
WindSpeedET
Fodder in Fields
LocalRainfall
Drought Durationand Intensity
+
+
+
-
+ +
-
Livestock Use ofFarmers' Fields
+
+Agrobiodiversity
+
Field AirTemperature
Soil Erosion
+
-
Shelter fromFoliage
Pest PredatorPopulations
RootDepth
+
SoilNutrientRecycle
+
+ + BirdPopulations
+
--
-
Tree Theft
+
SeedBank
++
CultivatedArea
+
-
Local Learning,Decision and
Enforcement Capacity+
-
-
+Ra1
Ra2
Ra3
R1
R1
R1
Ra4
Ra5
NitrogenFixation
+
+
SeedSpreading
+
+
+
Sand Blasting
+
Need for Trees toIntensify Cultivation
+
Trees in Farmers’ Fields
Household Economy
Family FoodProduction
HouseholdIncome
+
ComplementaryIncomeSources
+
<Tree Density>
+Crop Yield
HouseholdSubsistence
Food Purchases
Food ExportFarmers'Livestock
-
-
+
+ +
+
Herders'Livestock
+
<CropPlantingSuccess>
+
FuelwoodAvailability
FuelwoodSales
+
+
+
ForagingTime
-
-
<FarmersLivestock Access
to DistantResources>
+
<Fodder infields>
+ <Farmers' Timeto MonitorHerders>
-+
Livestock
Need to MoveCattle overLarge Areas
Need for farmers -herder cooperation
ConflictsHerders/Farmers
Migration CorridorDemarcation
Trespassing onFarmer's Fields
Farmers LivestockAccess to Distant
Resources
Farmers'Time toMonitorHerders
Livestock Use ofFarmers' Fields
Fodderin Fields
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
Farmers'Livestock
Herders'Livestock
+
-
Herders'Participation inDecision-making
++
Competitionfor Fodder
-
+
Local Learning,Decision andEnforcement
Capacity
+
Tree Density
+
Bd1
Bd2
Bd3
+
Shelter fromFoliage
+++
+
Farmer – Herder Relations
Livestock
Cultivated Area
Trees & Environment
Family FoodProduction
HouseholdIncome
+
LocalComplementaryIncome Sources
+
Crop Yield
Food Stored(Security)
FoodPurchases
FoodSales
Farmers'Livestock
--
+ +
+
Herders'Livestock
Tree Products(Timber, Fuel,Leaves, Pods)
Sales of Trees,Timber, Fuelwood
+
+
WoodCollection
Time
-
-
BuildingConstructionand Repair
Migration forWork (to cities
or abroad)
+
FoodDemand
-Food
Supply Gap
+
Land Clearancefor Cultivation
FallowPeriod
TimberImports
-
+
-
Goats +
+
Population+
+
Perception of"Modern" Farming
(Ag ExtensionService)
+
EnvironmentalQuality
+
CropPlantingSuccess
+
+
-
+
-+
+
Cultivation ofMarginal Lands
-
+
+
-
-+
Farmers-HerdersRelations
+
+
+
-
TreeDensity
+
FieldMicroclimate
Bc1Bc2
Rc1
Rc2 Rc3
Rc4
Rc5
Bc3
Bc5
Bc4
Rc6
CropResidues
+
+
Area Availablefor Cultivation
-CultivatedArea Limit
+
Need for Trees toIntensify Cultivation
-
+
Flexibility in TreesManagement
+
Availabilityof SyntheticFertilizers
-
Demandfor ExportProducts
-
Community Economy
Regional Exchange
Farmers-Herders Relations
Trees & EnvironmentLocal Learning, Decision and Enforcement Capacity
Barriers from National (State) Level Household Economy
Local Sense ofTree Ownership
TreeCultivation
+Tree
Density
+
Sense ofLocal
Autonomy
Local Senseof Crisis
FamilyFood
ProductionHousehold
Income
R3
R4B1
B2
LocalComplementaryIncome Sources
+
+
R2
EnvironmentalQuality
+
+
+
InternationalSupport Funds
Image of Sahelin Crisis
+
-
-
TreeGrowth
+Tree
Removal
-
+
B3
Political andEconomicStability
-
+
Local SocialCapital
+
Need toOvercomethe Crisis
+
Livestock Useof Farmers'
Fields
Migration CorridorDemarcation
+
+
ConflictsHerders/Farmers
-
-
+
+
R1
+
NationalControl overResources
Pressure fromDonors for Local
Self-Reliance
+
--
+
French Colonial Legacy
+
GovernanceUncertainty
and Corruption
+
Population
FoodDemand+
National andIntl Initiatives
for LocalDevelopment
Communication betweenNational and Local levels
++
Ra2
Rb1
+
Rb2+
+
+
+
SeedExchange
TravelOpportunities+ Labor
Migration+
Outside FarmersVisit Locally+
+
LivestockCirculation
+
+
+
+
LocalMarkets
+
R6
Ra1
-
R5
CultivatedArea
+
+
-
Area Availablefor Cultivation
-
-
CultivatedArea Limit
+
Need for Treesto IntensifyCultivation
+
Flexibility in TreesManagement
++
Demandfor ExportProducts
-
Complex story thatworks at many levels
Socio-Politics
Socio-Politics
Socio-Politics
Ecology
Economy
Economy
ASSESSING HOW SUCCESSFUL REGIME CHANGE IS SECUREDNot one perfect model!A family of models tells a wider story
Agro-ecosystems
FragileRobust
Livelihood Support per Capita
Few options
Many options
GovernanceInstitution capacity to
respond to crisis
Low
High
19001900
19251925
1960196019751975
19871987
20052005
Dynamics of Resilience and VulnerabilityFor farmers and pastoralists in Maradi/Zinder regions of Niger (1900‐2000)
Ways of explaining reality
Events What just happened?
Patterns, TrendsWhat’s been happening?Have we been here or some place similar before?
Systemic StructuresWhat are the forces at play contributing to these patterns?
Mental Models What about our thinking allows this situation to persist?
Niger‘s Rising Challenge
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Merci pour votre attention.
Thank you for your attention.
WP 1 – Project Coordination and Dissemination
SusFish Burkina Project Organization
WP 6 – Education and Research
WP 2(IUCN)
(North and South Partners)
(BOKU and GDFR)
WP 4(GDFR)
WP 3(LAEB)
WP 7(IHSUB)
Systems Analysis & Scenario Development
Collect and analyze Data
Ecosystems
FishAssemblages
Water Qual.Parameters
ConservationStatus
SpeciesDiversity
Society
RepublicanAnd
TraditionalInstitutions
For Governance
Fisherman’sKnowledge
NationalPolicies
WP 5(DRSE)
BurkinabeFisheries
Stakeholders: Managers,
Policy Makers,and Users
WP 8(IIASA)
Data,Knowledge,
Advice
Sustainable FisheriesManagement Capacity
IndicatorsOf BioticIntegrity
Fisheries, Health,Food
Security
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