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8/6/2019 Development of India by Komilla Chadha
1/4
The Recent Development of India by Komilla Chadha
IndiahasperformedconsistentlywellinrelationtodevelopedcountrieslikeUKso
farasGDPisconcerned. InthelastfiveyearsthelowestGDPIndiahasever
experiencedwas5.8% (2009),thisisspectaculargiventheongoingglobal
recessioninthisperiod. However,factorslimitingIndiaseconomicgrowthstillexistandinthisreportwewilllookattwostrategiesusedtopromotegrowthand
counteractthesefactors.
OneofthemostcommonproblemwithalldevelopingcountriesnotjustIndia,is
poorinfrastructure. Developingcountriesarenttypicallyabletoafordnew
machineryorinvestinotherformsofinfrastructuree.g. roads. Indiaisoneofthe
countriesmoreadverselyafectedranking86thoutof139forqualityofoverall
infrastructurebelowChina (50th) andBrazil (62nd). Accordingtoonesource,the
agriculturalindustryitselfloses500,000,000,000Rupees (6,846,690,915) ayear
duetoalackofadequatepostharvestinfrastructure. UnlessIndiameetsitsneeds
itwillstruggletoachieveabove9%GDPifinfrastructureisnotimproved.
Asaresult,theIndiangovernmenthasopenedInfrastructureDebtFundwhichis
createdusingcontributionsfrominsurancecompanies,pensionsfunds,foreign
funds,sovereignwealthfundsandbigbanks. Thiswillallowmoneytobespenton
infrastructureoveralongperiodandmeettheUSD $500billioninfrastructure
needsofthecountry. Thefundwillprovidemoneytofirmstopaytheirdebtstothe
banksandopenatideoffreshloanstobusinesses. However,itseemsthatmany
largedomesticagenciesarereluctanttoparticipateinthisschemeandgiventhat
thefundswillonlybeprovidedtoPPPs (PublicPrivatePartnerships) whohavebeen
underoperationforayear,theefectsmaybelimitedasitseemsthatsmall
businessesaretheoneswhostrugglethemost. Furthermore,tryingtoregulate
wherethefundinggoestoimpliesthattherewillbebureaucracyinvolvedwhich
meansfurthermoneyandtimewillneedtobespenttoputthisoperationinto
optimumaction.
Likemanyofthetigersofourglobaleconomy,Indiatoohasastrongexport
culture,inDecember2010itsexportsreachedagrandvalueofUSD $22,500
million. Yetevenafterattemptingtoimplementoutward-lookingpoliciesand
achievinglargeexportrates,Indiastillhadatradedeficit (USD $2,600millionin
Dec10) . IfwetakeChina,whichissupposedlyeconomicallysimilartoIndia,we
canseeastarkdiference,Chinahasatradesurplusof$13.1billion (Dec10). This
ishinderingeconomicgrowthinIndiabecausedemand-ledgrowthismadeupof
fourfactors: consumption,investment,governmentspendingandnetex/imports
andatradedeficitactsasanegativeinthisformulasubsequentlyhindering
8/6/2019 Development of India by Komilla Chadha
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economicgrowth. Oneofthereasonswhichhasbeensuggestedforthisproblemis
Indiasgrowingmiddleclass. Indiasmiddleclass (50millionpeople) is
exponentiallygrowingallthetimeandthispushesdemandforimportssuchas
expensivecarsandfancyhandbagswhichareproducedincountrieslikeChinaand
Germany.
Ratherthantacklingthisproblemofatradedeficit (whichinturnhindergrowth) by
usingprotectionistpolicies,Indiaseemstobemovingtowardsoutward-looking
policies.JustyesterdaynewswasreleasedthattheIndiangovernmentissettingan
exporttargetof$450billionby2013. Thegovernmentplanstodothisby
implementingfourstrategies: retainingmarketshareindevelopedcountries,
diversifyingintonewmarkets,investingmoreintheR&Dofnewtechnologiesand
improvingIndiasreputationintheglobalmarketbyraisingdomesticstandards,
promotionalcampaignsandqualityenforcements. Inthelastweekwehavealreadyseensomeevidenceofthesestrategiesproposedbythegovernment. Indiahas
signedatradeagreementwithJapanwherebytarifsonparticularproductssuchas
pharmaceuticalswillbeeradicatedandJapanwillcontributetoIndias
InfrastructureDebtFund. ThiswillhelpIndiadiversifybytappingintonewmarkets
andpromoteexport-ledgrowth. ThisagreementhasbeenendorsedbytheWorld
TradeOrganisationsayingthatnotonlywillithelpIndiabuthelpJapantoo.
Conventionalwisdomtellsusthatoneofthebestwaysforaneconomytogrowis
throughsupply-sidepoliciessuchasimprovementineducation,reducingincome
taxandmanymore. Thereasonwhythesearesopopularnotonlybecausethey
increaseaggregatesupply,whichmeansthatthecountrycanexperiencegrowth
withtheriskofhighinflation,andincreaseaggregatedemandasaresultduetothe
positivemultiplierefect. Thebigproblemthoughfordevelopingcountrieslike
Indiaistobeabletofundthesepoliciesandthisisnoteasywhenthecountryis
ladenwithdebtwhichmakesup82%ofGDP (Feb2010).
Oneofthemostcommonwaysinwhichtoreducedebtindevelopingcountrieshas
beentoseekdebtrelief. However,forIndiaitappearstobeadiferentstoryand
thismaybebecauseIndiareliesmoreongovernmentbondsthanloansfrom
developedcountries. Asaresultthegovernmentisutilisingfiscalpoliciestoreduce
thedebtwhichhascreatedabudgetdeficitinthecountry. Inlastyearsbudget
IndiasFinanceMinisterPranabMukherjeeproposedtoincreaseexcisedutiesona
rangeofitemsincludingautomobilesandanincreaseinimportdutyongoldfrom
Rs200pergramto300per10gramsasameansofraisingtaxrevenue. Goldisa
mineralwhichisveryimportanttothepeopleinIndia,itnotonlyholdsculturalandtraditionalsignificancebutnowformanyisusedasaneconomicasset. Thismeans
thatdemandforgoldisinelasticandbyraisingimportdutynotonlyisIndia
8/6/2019 Development of India by Komilla Chadha
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encouragingtheproductionofgoldinitsownlandbutcreatingmoretaxrevenue
withoutanysignificantlossofdemand. Ibelievethisisoneofthebeststrategies
Indiaincludedinitsplantoreducetheirbudgetdeficitbecausetheopportunity
costofthispolicydoesnotseemverylarge.
WithoutadoubtthereareawidevarietyofotherfactorswhichcrippleIndias
economicgrowthbutIfeltthesethreewerethemostimportant. Thisisbecausethe
firstproblemofinfrastructuredeficiencyisonewhichhasbeenwithussincethe
studyofeconomicsbegan,thisisoneproblemthatcountriesfinddiculttosolve
andIfeelthatthecreationoftheInfrastructureDebtFundalthoughnotperfector
oneIadmireitisonewhichisinnovative. Thesecondlimitingfactorwasatrade
deficitandthisIthinkisonewhichisthemostimportantfactorwithoutadoubt
becauseitisonewhichuptilltodayafectsthegrowthofdevelopedcountriesand
developing. IfIndiacanmanagetocontrolthisnowthenonlywilltheybetomaintainitatastablerateandlooktoaprosperousgrowth-filledfuture. Thethird
factordiscussedwasthedebtwhichhascausedabudgetdeficitinIndiaandthisis
aproblemwhichweintheUKarealltoofamiliaraboutandthereforeIfelt
examininganothercountrystakeonthiswouldhelpustoevaluateourownbudget
plansputforwardbythecoalition.
8/6/2019 Development of India by Komilla Chadha
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