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Disrupting the Future
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Dr. Joe WebbWhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center
Book Manufacturers’ Institute
Williamsburg, VAMay 4, 2010
© 2010, WhatTheyThink
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Agenda
The Economy and Why It Matters Less Than You Think
Commercial Printing Industry: Where It’s Been and Where It’s Headed
Media Shifts and What They Mean Industry Restructuring:
Pain & Gain? Just Pain?
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Economic Snapshot
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Uncle Ben's Great Cash Giveaway
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Inflation Adjustment Reveals True Trends: Use These Multipliers
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The Good & the Bad Of It ISM reports imply +5-6%
economic growth Inflation tame at consumer
level Business investment in new
technologies High cash levels of
corporations for new investment, and new initiatives
Commodity prices rising, signaling increased activity
Inflation worries Fed will be too slow
Trade troubles Mexico, Brazil, Canada
Weak dollar Stubborn unemployment Disposable personal income
moving sideways Upcoming tax changes shift
income-producing efforts to 2010, and won’t be duplicated in 2011
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The Recovery of 1980-1982 Digital technology reduced the cost of print, especially
process color, opening new markets and shorter run lengths for color
Computer technologies improve data capture and management, stimulating direct marketing
Interest rates were high, and decreases through the 1980s allowed for better cash flows and financing strategies that made investment easier
Declining inflation, investment incentives
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The Recovery of 2010 Alternatives to print in the form of digital media capture
the hearts and minds of communicators because of costs and instant feedback
Mobile technology creates communications freedom Interest rates are low, and will be rising Inflation likely to rise, no general investment incentives Computer & communications investments stimulate
methods that avoid print Print is viewed as environmentally unwise
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Is Commercial Printing Business Getting Better?or
Orphaned Volume in a New Home?
Remember – there are approximately 3-4,000 fewer print establishments since September 2008 when results were this high
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WTT Forecasts (2010$)
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Commercial Printing vs. Book Publishing Employment (Index 2005=100)
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Ad-based Media in Sharp Decline
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Change in Magazine Circulation, Population Growth, and Magazine Titles, 1970-2008
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My How We’ve Changed
• Almost 3 years ago...• no iPhone• no Twitter• Facebook was obscure web
site
• In 2010• 34+ million iPhones• 106+ million Twitter users• 400+ million Facebook users• 100+ million Facebook
Mobile users
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Who Would Have Thought?
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Morgan Stanley: Global Social MediaNow > E-Mail in Users & Time
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The Nature of Print is Changing
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More Choices, More Opportunities?www.tinyurl.com/mediachart
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Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #1:
Stay ahead of the clients;ignore the competitors
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Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #2:
Traditions and mismatchof capital
with marketplacelimit the ability toimplement change
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AOL/Time Warner 1/10/2000
• Steve Case– “This is a historic moment in which new media has
truly come of age.”
• Gerald M. Levin– “…unprecedented and instantaneous access to
every form of media and to unleash immense possibilities for economic growth, human understanding and creative expression.”
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Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #3:
Focus on client's totalcommunications ROI,
especially for non-print initiatives
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Is This Really New?
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How Might Publishing Change?
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The Cultural Shift that isUnderway in the Printing Business
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Shifting from “Getting” to “Creating”
Getting Business Known products
and suppliers Buyer determined time
of need and nature of purpose
Easy measurement
Creating Business Identify problems Expert advisor, teacher Problem and solution
are not obvious Credibility and trust
of the supplier Leap of ROI faith
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Read These and Preparefor 2015 and Beyond
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The “New” Printers
A focus on non-advertising communications; implementation and deployment
Digital printing technology plays essential role in evolving communications practices
Shops will be smaller, with smaller staffs, technology intensive, highly productive
Craft is redefined: data management
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In Summary Print's Old Guard has had a horrible decade 2011-2020 will see historic industry upheaval
Traditional markets will shrink to specialties On-demand technologies will be rampant Widening array of digital communications devices Robust media convenience at low cost
Hunkering down is not the answer
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There is No Such Thing as “Business As Usual”
Don’t wait for the new “rules” to be written;write them yourself
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THANK YOUVERY MUCH!
© 2010, WhatTheyThink
http://tinyurl.com/disruptingresources
•Download the PDF with live hyperlinks•Download “Renewing the Printing Industry”•Download PDFs and Powerpoint files used in “Disrupting”•Oce is distributing book at customer events in 2010
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