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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad, India
Presented in the International Forum for Sustainable Asia and the Pacific: ISAP 2012 July 24-25, Yokohama, Japan
India: Domestic Climate Change Actions after Durban
インド: ダーバン後の国内気候変動行動
プリヤダァシ・シュクラ
インド経営大学院大学
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Durban Platform for Enhanced Actions 更なる行動のためのダーバンプラットフォーム
(Building on the Bali Action Plan, Copenhagen & Cancun Agreements)
Domestic Actions (Guided by National Climate Change Action Plan)
•Enhanced Energy Efficiency measures (e.g. PAT with EE Certificates, CAFE)
•Renewable Energy Push (e.g. 20 GW Solar PV Target by 2022, RE Certificates)
•Mission on Sustainable Habitat (e.g. Building Codes, Low Carbon Cities Planning)
•Coal tax ($1 per ton) and recycling of tax funds for clean energy
International Instruments
•UNFCCC Instruments – CDM and NAMAs
– UNFCCC Funds (e.g. Green Climate Fund)
•Bilateral Actions – Tech Transfer (e.g. CCS)
– JVs (e.g. Transport: High Speed Rail, Freight Corridors)
• 20 to 25% Emissions Intensity Reduction from 2005 to 2020 (1.5 - 1.9% decoupling)
• Per Capita Emissions Below OECD Average (for ever)
• MRV/ICA (International Consultation & Analysis) of Domestic Actions (Cancun)
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
GDP, Energy, Emissions: Indian Scenarios
GDP、エネルギー、排出量:インドのシナリオ
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
mto
e
High Growth Medium growth Low Growth
Primary Energy
7880
658
2193
6175
3542
1524
10883
4718
1848
15131
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
2005 2020 2035 2050
Low Growth Medium Growth High Growth
GDP/capita (US $2005)
2.80
7.27
3.39
9.69
23.59
4.03
12.68
32.80
17.08
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2020 2035 2050
Low Growth Medium Growth High Growth
GDP (GDP in 2005 = 1)
Carbon Emissions
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
mt-
CO
2
High
Medium
Low
Growth Scenarios
Typlical LCS Trajectory
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Renewable Energy Certificate Mechanism: Institutional Framework at National Level 再生可能エネルギー:国レベルの制度枠組み
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Four New Initiatives under NMEEE
As per National Action Plan on Climate Change (Para 4.2):
•A market based mechanism to enhance cost effectiveness of improvements in energy
efficiency in energy-intensive large industries and facilities, through certification of
energy savings that could be traded. (Perform Achieve and Trade)
•Accelerating the shift to energy efficient appliances in designated sectors through
innovative measures to make the products more affordable. (Market Transformation
for Energy Efficiency)
•Creation of mechanisms that would help finance demand side management programs
in all sectors by capturing future energy savings. (Energy Efficiency Financing
Platform)
•Developing fiscal instruments to promote energy efficiency (Framework for Energy
Efficient Economic Development)
NATIONAL MISSION ON
ENHANCED ENERGY EFFICIENCY (NMEEE) エネルギー効率の向上に関する国家ミッション(NMEEE)
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Specific Energy Consumption (SEC) reduction
targets for the 685 energy-intensive units which are
designated consumers under the Energy
Conservation Act
• Targets would be % reduction of current SEC
• Percentage reduction requirement based on:
- Sectoral targets to achieve the national goal
- Current SEC as a ratio of the best in the sector/
groups within a sector
- Unit specific diversities (Next Slide)
• Target setting for the power generation and fertilizer
sectors through the existing tariff-setting processes
• SEC measurement and verification by BEE through
designated verifiers
Sector No. of Identified
DCs*
Aluminum 11
Cement 92
Chlor-Alkali 21
Fertilizer 22
Pulp & Paper 70
Power 154
Iron & Steel 110
Textiles 197
Railways 8
Methodology:
(The market based mechanism through cost effectiveness approach for
improving energy efficiency in energy intensive sectors)
Perform, Achieve & Trade (PAT) Mechanism
*DCs: Designated Consumers
省エネ達成認証(PAT)メカニズム
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Infrastructure Alternatives: Coal by Wire
44%
21%
10%
4%
5%
5% 3%
8%
Coal Iron Ore, Steel & Pig Iron
Cement Foodgrains
Fertilizers Petroleum Oil Lubricants
Container Service Others
Composition of Railway Freight Traffic (%): 2010
代替社会基盤(インフラ):石炭産地での発電と送電
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India 8
Transport Infrastructure: Avoiding Lock-ins 交通基盤:ロック・イン(固定化)の回避
Freight movement by transport infrastructure type (Bn Tkm)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
3W
LCV
HCV
Train
Ship
Sectoral shares in freight transport infrastructure (%)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
3W
LCV
HCV
Train
Ship
BAU
Industrial Corridors
Coal by Wire
Haryana Dadri
J. N Port
Rajasthan
Maharashtra
Gujarat
Madhya
Pradesh
Haryana
Uttar Pradesh
Major Towns
Proposed Freight Corridor
Assumed Corridors
Kandla
Kochi
Mangalore
Vizag
Marmagoa
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
3W
LCV
HCV
Train
Ship
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
City Planning: Co-benefits
Ahmedabad City: Pop. In 2010 - 5.5. Million
Co-benefits: Transport Transitions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS
2W
Train
Bus
Large Passenger Vehicle
Car & 3 W
Per Capita CO2 Emissions (Ton)
2.16
5.63
3.13
8.15
2.16
2005 2035 BAU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS
163.99
223.199
255.704
148.974 169.25
0
100
200
300
2005 2035 2050
Base WECC
Co-benefits: Water per capita (ML/million)
都市計画:コベネフィット(共便益)
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Integrated Energy-Water Market: Co-benefits
Co-benefits of South-Asia
Integrated Energy-Water Market
Benefit (Saving) Cumulative
from 2010 to 2030
$ Billion % GDP
Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87
CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08
SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03
Total 359 0.9B8
Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits
• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)
• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)
• Flood control (MDG1&7)
• Lower energy prices enhances competitiveness
of regional industries (MDG1)
INDIA: Water Demand (BCM)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2025 2025 CC 2025 Sus 2050 2050 CC 2050 Sus
Domestic Industry (incl power) Agriculture
Red: 27.0%
591 1006 953 732 937 1237 1184
Red:24.0%
4.8%
27.3%
0
10000
20000
BAU BAU LCS: Sus BAU
2005 2020 2035 2050
Fossil
Nuclear
Large Hydro
Other Renewables
LCS: Sus BAU LCS: Sus
統合的エネルギー・水市場:コベネフィット
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2OC Stabilization: Mitigation Alternatives
Conventional Approach: transition with
conventional path and carbon price • High Carbon Price
• Climate Focused Technology Push
• Top-down/Supply-side actions
Sustainability Approach: aligning climate
and sustainable development actions • Low Carbon Price
• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions
• Behavioural change
• Diverse Technology portfolio
Technology Co-operation Areas • Energy Efficiency
• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro
• Nuclear/Low Carbon Infrastructure
Technology Co-operation Areas • Transport Infrastructure Technologies
• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy
• Process Technologies
• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
n T
on
CO
2
Water-Energy
Reduced Consumption
Recycling
Material Substitutions
Device Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Infrastructure
Fuel Switch
Residual Emissions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
n T
on
CO
2
Water-Energy & others
Infrastructure
Device Efficiency
Nuclear
Renewable Energy
Fossil Fuel Switch
Residual Emissions
2℃への安定化:緩和代替手段
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits and Social Value of Carbon
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
n t
SO
2
Base Case
Sustainability
Scenario
Conventional
Scenario
Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions
Co benefits: Energy Security
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable
Pri
ma
ry E
nerg
y D
em
an
d (
Mto
e)
Base 2825
CT 2945
SS 2207
Total PED (Mtoe)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0
40
80
120
160
200
BAU
Conventional Scenario
Sustainability Scenario
Social Value of Carbon
(US
$ p
er
ton
of
CO
2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
100 200 400 800 1600
Emissions and Income
SO2 Emissions in BAU
CO2 Emissions in BAU
SS Emissions
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns (M
illio
n T
on
)
SO
2 E
mis
sio
ns (
Millio
n T
on
)
GDP Per Capita 2000 = 100
コベネフィットと炭素の社会的価値
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Conclusions 結論 India: Post-Durban Visions and Actions
Long-term: Aligning CC & SD
1.Commitment to 2 deg. C Stabilization
• Early Actions for Global Peaking of Emissions
2.Green (and Inclusive) Growth
• Decoupling Economy from Energy Use and Carbon Emissions
3.Equitable Right to Sustainable Development
• Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR)
• Long-term Cooperative Actions (Global/Multilateral)
• Technological (e.g. CCS, Rail Transport) and Financial Transfers
4.Avoid Long-term Lock-ins
• Investment in Infrastructures, human and social capital
• Enhance Adaptive Capacity
インドにおけるダーバン後のビジョンと行動
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Conclusions India: Post-Durban Visions and Actions
Short-term: Co-benefits and Capacity Building
1.National Missions to Deliver Co-benefits
• Clean Energy (e.g. Solar Mission)
• Energy Efficiency (e.g. Appliance Standards, Building code)
• Reduce, Reuse, Recycle (e.g. City Waste)
2.Cooperate with Multilateral Initiatives (e.g.)
• UNFCCC Flexibility Mechanisms (CDM)
• Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
3.Preparedness for Adaptation (with Co-benefits)
• Assess Vulnerability in critical areas (e.g. Himalayan Ecology)
• Align CC Adaptation & other Risks (e.g. water stress, floods)
Thank you
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