Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership March 4, 2011...

Dr. Paul KershawUniversity of British Columbia

Human Early Learning PartnershipMarch 4, 2011

Kelowna, BC

A Canada that Works for All

Generations

Cracks?

Photo credit: www.nvdaily.com/news/2010/07/mayor-removal-of-dam-high-priority.php

25-45 year oldsMore

labour market

hours

More

unpaid domestic hours

Children Boomers & Seniors

ThenNow

$Average Household

Incomeas young adults

WhenBoomers wereyoung adults(1976-1980)

Today’syoung adults(2004-2008)

WhenBoomers wereyoung adults(1976)

Today’s young adults(2009)

9% decline 393% increase

Average

House price

$120,731

$474,274$72,620

$65,94056%

of women 25-45 years in labour force 80%

of women 25-45 years in labour force

COHORT

Population pressuresPO

P. S

IZE

(200

9)

CHILDHOODBiological

sensitivity/ opportunity

AGEINGBiological vulnerability/ frailty

…plus biological realities

CHILDREN

YOUTH

25 - 4

5

YEAR OLD

S

BOOMERS

JUNIO

R SENIO

RS

SENIO

R SENIO

RS

Sensitive Periods in Early Brain Development

Vision

0 1 2 3 7654

High

Low

Years

Habitual ways of respondingEmotional

control

Symbol

Peer social skillsNumbers

Hearing

Graph developed by Council for Early Child Development (ref: Nash, 1997; Early Years Study, 1999; Shonkoff, 2000.)

Pre-school years School years

Language

of BC kindergarten children are vulnerable.

Vulnerability above 10% is not biologically necessary.

29%

Biologically, no neighbourhood need have vulnerability above 10%.

>10%

<10%

Vulnerable onOne or More Scales

Source: EDI Wave 2 (2004/05 – 2006/07)

BC: Unique Population Laboratory:

Early Vulnerability Quality of Labour Supply

Kindergarten Population

Grade 4Population

Grade 7Population

Grade 12Population

Criminalactivity

to cut incarceration

by a third

Reduce Early Vulnerability to

10%...

to increase

university eligibility by a third.

Reduce early vulnerability

to 10%...

# o

f ch

ildre

n

Score on scale of EDIand

% achieving university eligible grades

Low High

29% 41.5%

University eligiblegrades

Vulnerability

If Then

At K At G.12

The next generation’s Human Capital

# o

f ch

ildre

n

Score on scale of EDIand

% achieving university eligible grades

Low High

10% 55.6%

University eligiblegradesVulnerability

If Then

At K At G.12

The next generation’s Human Capital

1960 – 2000: Research shows…

Countries with 55% of students getting university-eligible grades

vs.Countries with 42% of students getting

university eligible grades…

ENJOYED .63% OF GDP GROWTH MORE PER YEAR, FOR 40 YEARS

Decreased Vulnerability = Increased Growth

0 10 20 30 40 500

200

400

600

800

1000

Years

BC GDP($Billions)

First cohort of 5 year olds benefit from 15 by 15 policy

First cohort graduates

Status Quo (29%

vulnerable)

Reduced vulnerability

(10%)

That’s throwing away $401.5 billion now + interest over 60

years!

We are here

Reduced early vulnerabilityincreases GDP by

20%

Baseline growthBaseline growth plus 0.63% GDP per year

of BC kindergarten children are vulnerable.29

% Most vulnerable children are not poor!

Why?

CHILDHOODBiological

sensitivity/ opportunity

AGEINGBiological vulnerability/ frailty

CHILDREN

YOUTH

25 - 4

5

YEAR OLD

S

BOOMERS

JUNIO

R SENIO

RS

SENIO

R SENIO

RS

Demographic heroes?

CHILDHOODBiological

sensitivity/ opportunity

AGEINGBiological vulnerability/ frailty

CHILDREN

YOUTH

25 - 4

5

YEAR OLD

S

BOOMERS

JUNIO

R SENIO

RS

SENIO

R SENIO

RS

Resisting the Intergenerational squeeze

$ $

Canada has a proud history of Building and Adapting

Sch

ools

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Old

Age

Sec

uri

ty 1

951 &

C/Q

PP 1

966

Hos

pital

Ins

1957 &

Med

ical

Car

e 1966

What

since

?W

orke

rs C

omp &

UI

Country2009 Central

Government Debt (% GDP)

AustraliaSwitzerlandNorwayNZCanadaSwedenDenmarkGermanyUSFranceUKSource

8%21%26%28%36%38%38%44%53%61%75%OECD

% increase since 1973

133%

CANSIM

FISCAL DEBT

Country 2008 Tonnes CO2/Capita

SwedenSwitzerlandFranceNZNorwayUKDenmarkGermanyCanadaUSAustraliaSource

5.05.75.77.77.98.38.89.8

16.518.418.5

IEA

Change in GHG% 1990 level

13%1%

-12%18%-22%-18%-6%

-21%47%16%82%

UNFCCC

ENVIRONMENTAL DEBT

CountryFamily Policy for Young Children

Score/10

SwedenNorwayDenmarkFranceNZUKGermanySwitzerlandUSAustraliaCanadaSource

108886543321

UNICEF

FAMILY POLICY DEBT

Parental Leave(year: 2008)

Parents both take 6 months to care for infant. Disposable income relative to couple without children

Lower Earner (takes all 12 months)

Country Year Can$ (controlling for PPPs) Year Can$Denmark 12,915 1,971Germany 1,166 1,054Sweden 1,105 -2,530Quebec -2,548Austria -3,295 -391Czech Republic -5,945 372Slovak Republic -6,958 -2,251Finland -8,468 -4,694Netherlands -8,624 -9,258Spain -9,941 -5,641UK -10,036 -6,274Belgium -10,298 -6,448Norway -10,687 -7,307Canada (outside of Quebec) -10,353 - 11,779 -6,971New Zealand -12,592 -18,999Italy -15,160 -11,653France -16,085 -8,480Australia -16,343 -13,235Ireland -19,044 -10,397USA -23,119 -16,389Japan -24,019 -10,866

0.22%

Public expenditure on ECEC services (0-6 years)

in selected OECD countries

Source: Adapted from Starting Strong ll: Early Childhood Education and Care, September 2006, p.11

Denmark

Sweden

Norway

Finland

France

Hungary

Austria

United Kingdom

United States

Netherlands

Germany

Italy

Australia

Canada

0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

BC

Canada

Canada (outside Quebec)• Few spaces• Insufficient quality • High cost• Inadequate Inclusion

British Columbia• Currently 0.22% of GDP• 0.28% with full school-day K

OECDavg.0.7%

UNICEF & EUbenchmark1.0%

0.25%0.28%

% of GDP

No

rwa

y

Au

stri

a

De

nm

arkUK

Sw

ed

en

Ge

rma

ny

Au

stra

lia

Ne

th

Jap

an

Fin

lan

d

NZ

Fra

nce

Ire

lan

d

Be

lgiu

m

Ca

na

da

US

Cze

ch

Sp

ain

Slo

va

k

Ita

ly

-$5,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$ after taxes, housing and routine health

Lone Mother with Toddler on In-come Assistance

Canadian Currency (controlling for purchasing power parities)

(2008)

Because there is no system of family policy…

Canadian Society is FAILING parents in fundamental ways!

Time PovertyService PovertyIncome Poverty

Reflects appreciation of costs imposed by residential school system; reserves, etc.

Solution?

Renew our efforts to build and adaptso that Canada Works for All Generations.

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Old

Age

Sec

uri

ty 1

951 &

C/Q

PP 1

966

Hos

pital

Ins

1957 &

Med

ical

Car

e 1966

What

next?

Wor

kers

Com

p &

UI

Enough Time with kids, family and friends

Better parental leavemore time: +6 months, for dadsmore $: $932/week, up from $442minimum: $440/week

Enough Time with kids, family and friends

1600 hour annual full-time norm?

Canadian 300 more hours/year than German, Dutch and Norwegian citizen56% of men and 31% of women more than 40 hours22% of men and 41% of women less than 30 hoursWork beyond age 65…

Enough Time to make ends meet, to be

creative

Child Care & Early Learning Services

$10/day, from leave through K$7/day, p-t option for @-home parentsProvided by caregivers with ECE trainingPlay-based approach to ECDPaid pay equity-level wages

Include Parenting Supports & Healthy Child Check-ins

In BC, children under 6:

Today

Smart Family Policy

44% Parental Care Only 37%

33% Regulated Care 63%

23% Unregulated Care 0%

100% 100%

Photo credit: www.nvdaily.com/news/2010/07/mayor-removal-of-dam-high-priority.php

25-45 year olds

Leave: 15,687 years1600 norm: 8,428 years

Children Boomers & Seniors

$Net benefit: $126

millionUnder $60K gains

Over $60k trading some cash for time

$351 million @ minimum wage

The price of smart family policy...

Time & Income Parental leave

$1.1 billion

End poverty & Living wage $474

million

A Canada that works for all generations: the cost in BC

Child Care and Early learning

Healthy Child Check-Ins & Parenting Support$91 million

1600 hour annual

employ. norm$59 million

Less $150 million, because of the progress made, despite recession

Services

$1.1 billion

$2.8Billion/Year

$2.8 Billion/Year in BC?!?

Less than half what we spend cumulatively on Old Age Security and RRSPs.

Eventual returns outweigh costs by 6/1

About 12-20% of total fed/prov health care spending.

More sophisticated consumers of policy announcements.

$2.8 Billion Increase in Spending?

Provincial Health Care Spending($ Billions) 1998 - 2008

$3B/5 years

$3B/5 years

Failure to adapt costs BC employers…

Absenteeism: $293 millionProductivity: $393 millionRetention: $575-800 millionInsurance premiums $ 15 millionParental leave top up $ 20 million

Sub-total $1+ billionReduce wage pressures…

Failure to adapt costs GovernmentChild welfare: $157 millionW/L stress GPs, emerg, hospitalization: $299 million Prescription drugs $ 26 million Sub-total $482 million

Reduction in unemployment: 9,950 FTEsEarly vuln K-12 costsPoverty health care costs

Adapting the damis a part of our history, good management, smart economics & a just cause.

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Univ

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Old

Age

Sec

uri

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951 &

C/Q

PP 1

966

Hos

pital

Ins

1957 &

Med

ical

Car

e 1966

Sm

art

Fam

ily P

olicy

Wor

kers

Com

p &

UI

Trusted Professions in Canada (2007)

Fire Fighters97%Nurses 94%Farmers92%Teachers89%Doctors 87%

Politicians 15%

Thank you.

• Paul Kershaw, Ph.D.• The University of British Columbia• College for Interdisciplinary Studies• Human Early Learning Partnership (HELP)• http://www.earlylearning.ubc.ca/PaulKershaw.htm• e-mail: paul.kershaw@ubc.ca