Dynamics in gpu market

DYNAMICS IN GPU MARKET

- Is the discrete GPU a dinosaur?

Jon Peddie ResearchFocus and emphasis on Digital Technology, Multi Media, and

Graphics

Consulting and market research - Advisor to industry leaders and

financiers

Bi-weekly report, various Digital Technology Market Studies

Product testing and benchmarking

• The Business of Multimedia and Graphics

Agenda – What the Roadmaps Say

The end of the IGP

The introduction of the EPG & HPU

The end of the discrete GPU?

The big future for discrete GPUs

Offsetting factors

h MARKET DYNAMICS

Strong Market Good Growth

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

PCs (M units)Graphics (M units)DJIA

PC Platforms

20002001200220032004200520062007 20082009201020112012 2013201420150

350 Desktop vs. Notebook PC growth

Desktop PCsNotebook PCs

M units

Graphics Chips

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

700 Desktop vs. Notebook GPU growth

Total graphics semiconductorsDesktopNotebook

M units

h THE IGPIntegrated Graphics Processor

GPU Segments PC

Desktop

Discrete

Notebook

Discrete

IntelProcessor

All that other stuff:USB, CD\DVD, HDD, audio, PCI, parallel serial, 1394, keyboard, IR, etc.

Integrated Graphics Processor ( IGP)

Unified Memory architecture (UMA)

The interface: PCI Express

System memoryHigh-speed

SDRAMFSB

VGA, DVI,

Display Port

South Bridge

GraphicsProcessorUnit GPU)

NorthBridge

Memory controlle

Basic Intel PC Architecture

hIGP Shipments

100 Total DT & NB IGP

h THE END OF THE IGP

Don’t be sad – it’ll be OK

INTRODUCTION OF THE EPG & HPUThe Integrated Processor Graphics chip

First Generation

The first versions of this new design can be found in Intel’s Clarksdale i5 processor, a four-core CPU with an IGP in a multichip package.

Clarksdale i5 First EPG

Introducing the EPG

The Integrated PROCESSOR Graphics Clarksdale’s graphics are UMA With the memory controller embedded within the

CPU there is a tighter coupling and a higher bandwidth capability.

Thus Clarksdale has good performance at nominal screen resolutions (i.e., 1280 x 1024.)

Ivy Bridge will be much better, Haswell even more

Performance of EPG

Intel i5 661

AMD 945+890GX

Intel QuardCore ...

AMD 4850e+780GX

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Futuremark Vantage* Higher is better

hDesktop EPG Replaces IGP

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -

180 Desktop Embedded/Integrated Components (M units)

hNotebook EPG Replaces IGP

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

Notebook Embedded/Integrated Components (M units)

hPC Segments

Desktop Notebook

Workstation (Professional)

Mainstream(Consumer & Enterprise)

Performance(Multimedia Consumer)

Enthusiast(Gamer)

Value & Nettop(Enterprise & Consumer)

Enthusiast/Workstation(Gamer/Professional)

Ultrathin(Consumer)

Thin & Light(Consumer & Enterprise)

Desktop Replacement(Enterprise & Consumer)

Netbook(Consumer)

hPC Segments Graphics

DesktopNotebook

Workstation (Professional)

Mainstream(Consumer & Enterprise)

Performance(Multimedia Consumer)

Enthusiast(Gamer)

Value & Nettop(Enterprise & Consumer)

Enthusiast/Workstation(Gamer/Professional)

Ultrathin(Consumer)

Thin & Light(Consumer & Enterprise)

Desktop Replacement(Enterprise & Consumer)

Netbook(Consumer)

Two or more GPUs

Discrete GPU

CPU with embedded GPU

Discrete GPUs

CPU with embedded GPU

Discrete GPUs

First Fully Integrated EPG

2H’10 AMD shipped samples of its Fusion Llano processor to its OEMs.

A fully integrated HPU fabricated in a 32nm process

It was a 4 core CPU with a 32 or greater core GPU

First GPU to be built in SOI.

ATI has demonstrated transistor packing getting 1,600 cores in a 334mm2 die

hLlano Block Diagram

Core 1 Core 2 Core 3 Core 4

512kb L2Cache

1024kb L2Cache

6MB L3 Cache

System Request Interface

Crossbar Switch

DDR3 MC HyperTransport I/O

Performance of GPUs

AMD 945+890GX

Intel i5 661

AMD HD5450

AMD Llano

Nvidia GTX480

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Relative performance of GPUsJon Peddie Research

* Higher is better

Speculated

EPGs will be a real inflection point

h INFLECTION POINT

An Inflection Point

The EPG is an inflection point One that has been speculated, and

worried about for years – has LSI integration gotten to the point that the

discrete GPU will be relegated to a small and declining portion of the market?

Self Perpetuating

If that happens, where will the R&D budget come from to develop the next generation of GPUs?

The design cycle and cost for a modern GPU is incredible compared to just 10 years ago.

Development Costs

To get the ROI for that kind of investment the GPU suppliers have to sell not only high-end chips but also midrange derivative versions.

If, however, the midrange is satisfied by the EPG based processors, the ROI will take longer and may never be realized due to obsolesce of functionality.

Time and Cost to Develop

6 8 10 12 14 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 43 47 51 56 61 65 68

Time to develolp (mo)Cost to de-velop($M)

Costs over time

The “watershed” concept

The average life cycle of a GPU roughly follows the introduction of versions of the Direct X API.

DirectX Version

Windows Version Release Date

DirectX 1.0 Windows 3.1 Sept. 1995

DirectX 2.0 95 and NT 4.0 Jun. 1996

DirectX 3.0 NT 4.0 SP3 Sept. 1996

DirectX 4.0 n/a Never released

DirectX 5.0 98 Jul. 1997 Riva 128 3D Rage Pro

DirectX 6.0 98 SE and ME Aug. 1998 Riva TNT Rage 128 GL

DirectX 7.0 2000 Sept. 1999 GF 256 Radeon

DirectX 8.0 2000 Nov. 2000 GF 2 Ultra

DirectX 8.1 XP Nov. 2001 Radeon 8500

DirectX 9.0 XP Dec. 2002 GF FX 5800 Radeon 9700 Pro

DirectX 9.0a XP Mar. 2003

DirectX 9.0b XP Aug. 2003 Radeon X800

DirectX 9.0c XP Aug. 2004 GF 6800

DirectX 9.0c XP Aug. 2005 GF 7800 Radeon x1300-1900

DirectX 10 Vista Nov. 2006 GF8800

DirectX 10.1 Vista SP1 Nov. 2007 Radeon HD 2900

DirectX 10.1 Vista SP1 Feb. 2008 GTX 200 Radeon HD 4800

DirectX 11 Windows 7 Oct. 2009 Radeon HD 5800

DirectX 11 Windows 7 Oct. 2010 GTX 480

DirectX 11.1 Windows 7 Mar 2012 GTX 680 Radeon 7970

Other Concerns

As the IGP gained unit market share the investors and press extrapolated the line to predict when all PCs would be IGP based.

hIGP and GPU Shipments

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

Discrete and Integrated Graphics (M Units WW)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

Market share of dGPUs in Consumer & SMB PCs

Beware of Soothsayers

It’s a silly model and most forecasters knew it

The “smart” ones reasoned that Moore’s law would indeed compensate for performance and that functional integration was inevitable and therefore the discrete GPU was a Dodo.

Some of them made bets on the shares of the GPU suppliers accordingly, and even used the recession to “prove” they were right.

Market Share Issues

If GPU shipments stay flat, and EPGs grow at the rate of the PC market, GPU unit market share will shrink.

And, depending upon GPU ASP and how the ASP for the EPG is calculated, the GPU market value may shrink.

That will make investors very nervous.

h OFFSETTING FACTORS

You can’t build a blivet There is a limit as to how many transistors

that can be put into a die There are power envelope limits, package, yield, and heat dissipation limits.

You can’t take a 250 watt, 3.6 billion transistor, 1536 core GK104 and cram it in with a 77 watt 1.4 billion transistor Intel Ivy Bridge Core i7 processor

Limitations of EPG

A blivet is ten pounds of stuff in a five pound bag

Software

Software doesn’t stand still If application development stopped Dec

2009 EPG processors would satisfy the needs of 95% of the users.

Investors and writers have long seen that as the ultimate conclusion, even before EPGs

It wrong!

Software Market Issues

Hardware has leapt ahead of software Software development is just as time and

money consuming as chip design. An AAA first-person shooter (FSP) game takes

3-5 years and $5 to $30 million dollars to produce now

It’s a risky “hits-based” business Only a few publishers and studios in the

market so the output capacity of the industry is limited.

Software Lag

Software will continue to improve And use the cycles available to it And stay almost a generation

behind HW Occasionally some developers will be in, or

almost in sync with the hardware developments.

Chicken vs. Egg

The chicken and egg dilemma No one wants to develop for a small

installed HW base Some ISVs hold back a new release until

either the installed base builds up or a competitor announces a new release.

This is extremely frustrating for the hardware suppliers.

Heterogeneous compute

It’s here (at last)

Support in three OS This is a significant breakthrough in

computer science It will have far reaching, long term, and

astounding influence on the world. The economy of scale puts a super

computer in the hands of everyone for $5,000 or less.

Could this be the Future?

Hi speed linksto PCIeBridge

Graphics memoryHigh-speed

South Bridge

GraphicsProcessor

SystemDRAM

Ray TracingProcessor

NICProcessor

AudioProcessor

LarrabeeCo-processor

Or is the third processor like the third rail?

More FLOPS Less $

Cost per FLOP, the GPU used as a vector processor most economical computing element.

The GPU can be used in three major application areas:

scientific, professional/commercial, and consumer.

Most applications will scale by the number of GPU cores available.

Destroying things – Investment Protection

A discrete-based GPU AIB, adds extraordinary impact to a game. It also offers investment protection to the buyer in that it gives added life to his or her purchase.

South Bridge

System memoryHigh-speed

High-speedLinks

Memory

ProcessorGPU

Discrete GPU

Graphics memoryHigh-speed

DDRAMFrame buffer

Hybrid PC Architecture

Scalable Graphics

SLI – 2 to 3 AIBs Crossfire – 2 to 4 AIBs Lucid Logix – 2 to 4 AIBs - mixed

1 2 3 4100

300Estimated scaling

ATINvidiaLucid Logix

Multiple AIBs for:• More performance• Physics•Ray tracing• Investment protection

The more you can see …The more you can do - Peddie’s 2nd law

In Computer Graphics too much is not enough - Peddie’s 1st law

The big future for discrete GPUs

GPUs sell 1.35 to PCs That ratio will increase due to:

GPU compute Hybrid Scaling

The EPG class products will kill midrange GPUs

They can’t come close the high-end

The Market Shift to EPG

180 Total Graphics (M units) by QtrJon Peddie Research

Total DT & NB Discret Total DT & NB IGP

Discrete GPUs

Thank you

Jon@jonpeddie.com

Chasing pixels – finding gems

Dynamics in gpu market

Documents

Efficient Molecular Dynamics on Heterogeneous GPU Architectures

Halal Market Dynamics

Market Graph Currency Market Dynamics Market Graph

Market dynamics, innovation, and transition in China's ...sro.sussex.ac.uk/66677/3/Market dynamics, innovation, and transitio… · Market dynamics, innovation, and transition in

Market Dynamics: Supporting Country Decision- …...Market Dynamics: Supporting Country Decision-Making on Medical Devices Ray Cummings, MS, MBADirector, Market Dynamics PATH rcummings@path.org

GPU-Accelerated Fluid Dynamics

Market Dynamics of Nanotechnology Market 2016-2021

Healthcare Market Dynamics

LAMMPS Molecular Dynamics on GPU

Oncology changing-market-dynamics

Numerical Simulations in Fluid Dynamics using GPU a Practical

The 6 Market dynamics

GPU implementation of Cell Dynamics simulation for block ... · Correlation between theory, simulation and experiment ~1-1000 nm GPU implementation of Cell Dynamics simulation for

Towards GPU-accelerated Operational Weather Forecastingon-demand.gputechconf.com/gtc/2013/presentations/S3417-GPU-Ac… · Dynamics Data assimilation Diagnostics Input / Output COSMO

Molecular Dynamics (MD) on GPUs - Nvidiaimages.nvidia.com/content/tesla/pdf/Molecular-Dynamics-Feb-2017-… · GPU-Accelerated Molecular Dynamics Apps ACEMD AMBER CHARMM DESMOND ESPResSO

A comparison of molecular dynamics simulations using GROMACS with GPU and CPU

GPU Accelerated Molecular Dynamics Simulation ... · GPU Accelerated Molecular Dynamics Simulation, Visualization, and Analysis Authors: Ivan Teo Juan Perilla Rezvan Shahoei ... State-of-the-art

Market dynamics

Numerical Simulations in Fluid Dynamics using GPU a Practical Introduction · 2010-10-05 · Numerical Simulations in Fluid Dynamics using GPU: a Practical Introduction Dr Tomasz

GPU Accelerated Molecular Dynamics Simulation