Elections and Campaigns. Elections Opportunity to choose who controls government Citizens’ main...

Elections and Elections and CampaignsCampaigns

ElectionsElections

Opportunity to choose who controls Opportunity to choose who controls governmentgovernment

Citizens’ main official inputCitizens’ main official input

LegitimacyLegitimacy

AccountabilityAccountability

Retrospective votingRetrospective voting

Prospective votingProspective voting

Elections And AccountabilityElections And Accountability

Candidates are motivated by electoral Candidates are motivated by electoral successsuccess

Elected officials wish to continue to hold Elected officials wish to continue to hold officeoffice

Ensures at least some responsivenessEnsures at least some responsiveness

Move towards centerMove towards center

Balancing actBalancing act

Elected OfficesElected Offices

FederalFederal PresidentPresident CongressCongress

StateState GovernorGovernor State LegislatureState Legislature Judges (sometimes)Judges (sometimes)

Local ElectionsLocal Elections County BoardsCounty Boards MayorMayor City CouncilCity Council School BoardsSchool Boards Other officesOther offices

Types of ElectionTypes of Election

General ElectionGeneral Election

Primary ElectionPrimary Election OpenOpen ClosedClosed Non-PartisanNon-Partisan

Referenda and RecallReferenda and Recall

ReferendumReferendum

InitiativeInitiative

May Increase May Increase ResponsivenessResponsiveness

Majority Tyranny?Majority Tyranny?

ConfusionConfusion

Recall Recall In Many States for certain In Many States for certain

officesoffices Not at federal levelNot at federal level

RetentionRetention

Presidential PrimariesPresidential Primaries

Select delegates for national conventionSelect delegates for national convention Winner take allWinner take all Proportional representationProportional representation

CaucusCaucus

Trend towards more primaries and more Trend towards more primaries and more open caucusesopen caucuses

Voting in primariesVoting in primaries

Open PrimaryOpen Primary

Closed PrimaryClosed Primary

More democratic?More democratic?

Extremism?Extremism?

Primary voters more partisanPrimary voters more partisan

PrimariesPrimaries

Used to select convention delegatesUsed to select convention delegates

Divisive Primaries Can Hurt Divisive Primaries Can Hurt

Early vs. LateEarly vs. Late

Convention BattleConvention Battle

Choice of VPChoice of VP

More conflict->less chanceMore conflict->less chance

Primaries Primaries

Front LoadingFront LoadingE.g. New Hampshire, IowaE.g. New Hampshire, IowaMomentumMomentumIncreases Importance of Small StatesIncreases Importance of Small StatesIncreases Importance of fundraisingIncreases Importance of fundraisingBenefits Front RunnerBenefits Front RunnerQuality of CandidatesQuality of CandidatesRegional PrimariesRegional Primaries E.g. Super TuesdayE.g. Super Tuesday

ConventionsConventions

Early- Party ControlEarly- Party Control

Uncommitted Uncommitted delegatesdelegates

ConflictConflict

ConventionsConventions

Delegates selected by Delegates selected by primariesprimaries

Democrats- Democrats- Proportional Proportional RepresentationRepresentation

Delegates- more Delegates- more ideological extreme, ideological extreme, more elite than more elite than averageaverage

Conventions- FunctionsConventions- Functions

No Longer Key to choosing candidateNo Longer Key to choosing candidate

Announce VPAnnounce VP

Vote on platform stating party principlesVote on platform stating party principles

AdvertisementAdvertisement

Post convention bouncePost convention bounce

Electoral CollegeElectoral College

Low profileLow profile

Original intent- overcome lack of informationOriginal intent- overcome lack of information

Representation=house+senateRepresentation=house+senate

Early- cast two votes, winner is president, runner Early- cast two votes, winner is president, runner up VPup VP

1212thth amendment- Shift to 2 separate votes amendment- Shift to 2 separate votes

Today, varying degrees of delegate discretionToday, varying degrees of delegate discretion

If no majority winner, decided in houseIf no majority winner, decided in house

Electoral CollegeElectoral College

Can distort ResultsCan distort Results

Usually, Popular winner wins by greater Usually, Popular winner wins by greater marginmargin

Popular winner can losePopular winner can lose 2000 Bush wins 271-2662000 Bush wins 271-266 Without Florida, Gore Wins 266-244Without Florida, Gore Wins 266-244 2004- If Kerry had won Ohio, would have lost 2004- If Kerry had won Ohio, would have lost

popular vote, won presidencypopular vote, won presidency

Reforming Electoral College Reforming Electoral College

Count at district level Count at district level

Abolish elector discretion Abolish elector discretion

Abolish collegeAbolish college

Congressional ElectionsCongressional Elections

CoattailsCoattails

Incumbency advantageIncumbency advantage

Midterm electionsMidterm elections

Low turnoutLow turnout

President’s party President’s party UsuallyUsually loses seats loses seats

Counting VotesCounting Votes

US- First Past the Post Plurality SystemUS- First Past the Post Plurality System

May Minimize representation of minority May Minimize representation of minority opinionsopinions

Partly responsible for 2 party politicsPartly responsible for 2 party politics

Proportional representationProportional representation

Assign seats in proportion to total voteAssign seats in proportion to total vote

De-emphasizes individuals, emphasizes De-emphasizes individuals, emphasizes partiesparties

Voter BehaviorVoter Behavior

Two Key IssuesTwo Key Issues

Decision to participateDecision to participate

Decision whom to vote forDecision whom to vote for

TurnoutTurnout

Voting one form of political participationVoting one form of political participationLowest “cost” of participationLowest “cost” of participationDecision to vote a function of perceived Decision to vote a function of perceived benefit, probability of influencing outcome, benefit, probability of influencing outcome, cost of votingcost of votingV=P(B)-CV=P(B)-CDoesn’t have to be explicitDoesn’t have to be explicitMost reasons people don’t vote fit into P, Most reasons people don’t vote fit into P, B, or CB, or C

Reasons for not votingReasons for not voting

Inconvenience (cost)Inconvenience (cost)

One vote doesn’t matter (probability)One vote doesn’t matter (probability)

Little difference between parties (benefit)Little difference between parties (benefit)

Reforms To Increase TurnoutReforms To Increase Turnout

Motor Voter (1992)Motor Voter (1992)

Easier Absentee votingEasier Absentee voting

National HolidayNational Holiday

2 Day voting2 Day voting

Who Doesn’t Vote?Who Doesn’t Vote?

Those less interested in politicsThose less interested in politicsYoungYoungLess EducatedLess EducatedLower IncomeLower IncomeBlacks?Blacks?Why? Why? Job FlexibilityJob FlexibilityLack of EfficacyLack of EfficacyLack of Civic Skills?Lack of Civic Skills?

Non voting- Does it matter?Non voting- Does it matter?

No- Sign of general satisfactionNo- Sign of general satisfaction

No- curbs radicalismNo- curbs radicalism

No- Sends message of dissatisfactionNo- Sends message of dissatisfaction

Yes- Winners will claim mandate anywayYes- Winners will claim mandate anyway

Yes- Opinions of non-voters very different Yes- Opinions of non-voters very different from those of votersfrom those of voters

Yes- weakens systemYes- weakens system

What determines the vote?What determines the vote?

Long term predispositionsLong term predispositions

Party IdentificationParty Identification

As a social groupingAs a social grouping

As a heuristicAs a heuristic

IdeologyIdeology

Ticket SplittingTicket Splitting

What determines the vote?What determines the vote?

Demographic factorsDemographic factorsRaceRaceBlacks- Heavily DemocraticBlacks- Heavily DemocraticWhites- Slight tilt RepublicanWhites- Slight tilt RepublicanAsian/Latino- MixedAsian/Latino- MixedGenderGenderIncomeIncomeEducationEducationReligionReligion

What determines the vote?What determines the vote?

Short term forcesShort term forces

IssuesIssues

Single issue votersSingle issue voters

Issue ownershipIssue ownership

Issue salienceIssue salience

What determines the vote?What determines the vote?

The economyThe economy

RetrospectiveRetrospective

ProspectiveProspective

PocketbookPocketbook

Sociotropic Sociotropic

Most Important- Prospective SociotropicMost Important- Prospective Sociotropic

Economy and predictionEconomy and prediction

What Determines the vote?What Determines the vote?

CandidatesCandidatesTraitsTraitsLeadershipLeadershipStrengthStrengthCompetenceCompetenceCompassion/empathyCompassion/empathyInsider/outsiderInsider/outsiderExperienceExperience

What determines the vote?What determines the vote?

The mediaThe media

PrimingPriming

ImageImage

Horse raceHorse race

What determines the vote?What determines the vote?

CampaignsCampaigns

Public AppearancesPublic Appearances

SpeechesSpeeches

DebatesDebates

SpinSpin

MisstepsMissteps

AdvertisingAdvertising

General CampaignGeneral Campaign

Turn out supportersTurn out supporters

Convert swing votersConvert swing voters

Target certain statesTarget certain states

Swing StatesSwing States

Electoral College VotesElectoral College Votes

Public Appearance Public Appearance

Campaign and the MediaCampaign and the Media

The MessageThe Message

Sound BytesSound Bytes

Campaign handlersCampaign handlers

SpinSpin

Horse race coverageHorse race coverage

DebatesDebates

AdvertisingAdvertising

Largest Campaign expenditureLargest Campaign expenditure

Narrowly or Broadly targetedNarrowly or Broadly targeted

Usually short spots Usually short spots

IssuesIssues

ImagesImages

Attack Attack

Negative advertisingNegative advertising

Widely despisedWidely despisedMay be effectiveMay be effectiveIssue contentIssue contentTurnoutTurnoutIyengar- Demobilizes votersIyengar- Demobilizes votersOthers- No effect on turnout, or even slight increaseOthers- No effect on turnout, or even slight increaseStevens- Mobilization depends on expertiseStevens- Mobilization depends on expertiseBacklashBacklashInterest GroupsInterest GroupsFree exposureFree exposure