Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Elections and Democracy

Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model

Electoral Competition Voting Model

Retrospective (or Reward and Punishment) Voting Model

Imperfect Electoral Democracy

Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model

Theory Parties must be cohesive and unified Parties must take different policy

stands Voters must perceive these policy

stands Winning party must do what it said

Potential Problems Intense, heated conflict Gridlock Priorities

Voting in the United States

Expansion of the Franchise

Low Voting Turnout

White male suffrage Property, taxpaying, and

religion barriers Dropped by 1829

At the polls10.

Expansion of the Franchise

Blacks, women, and young people Fifteenth Amendment (1870) Voting Rights Act (1965) Nineteenth Amendment (1920)

Direct partisan elections Presidential electors elected Seventeenth Amendment (1913)

Low Voting Turnout

Barriers to voting Registration “Motor Voter” law (1996) Picture ID requirements

Low Voting Turnout

Too much complexity

Decline in competitive elections

Weak voter mobilization by local parties

Other possibilities

FIGURE 10.2: Rise and fall of turnout in presidential elections, 1789-2012

Why is voter turnout lower in America than in most other democratic countries?

a. Registration can be a hassle

b. Many elections are not

competitive

c. Elections are held on a

weekday

d. All of the above

Who Votes?

Income and Education

Race and Ethnicity

Age

Gender

Does It Matter Who Votes?

Income and Education

Higher income = more likely to vote

More years of education = greater likelihood of voting Chief indicator

Why the correlation?

Race and Ethnicity

Nearly equal numbers of blacks and whites vote Gaps due to income, education

Latino voting increasing Low income, language barriers Fewer eligible voters registered

FIGURE 10.3: Congressional election turnout by social group, 2012 elections

Age

Older = more likely to vote Turnout highest for over 65 age group Lowest for under 25 age group

Why low turnout for youth? Less rooted in communities Less in habit of voting Less clear on stakes of election Less familiar with procedures

Mobilizing the youth vote

Gender

Gender gap disappeared by 1980s Women vote at higher rates than men

Progress in gender equality responsible Education, income

10.4

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Does It Matter Who Votes?

Do policy preferences of non-voters differ? Misleading studies showed they do not

Demographics differ Poor are non-voters

Which hypothetical citizen is most likely to vote?

a. A white man with a high school

diploma

b. A black woman with a graduate

degree

c. A white man with a college

degree

d. A Latino woman with a GED

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Gaining the Nomination

Who has a chance? Sitting president presumptive nominee Rich, older white men Governors and Congressmen, VPs Mainstream

Getting started Exploratory committee 2-3 years out Fund-raising and public financing

Gathering votes

Gaining the Nomination

Presidential primaries and caucuses Open or closed primaries Early wins establish momentum Front-loading primaries

Public face of party conventions

General Election Campaign

Getting the campaign up and running Campaign begins earlier today Focus on battleground states Attack ads Micro-targeting

Informing voters Issues Past performance Personal characteristics

10.5

Obama on the campaign trail

FIGURE 10.4: Growth in spending in presidential elections

Money in General Elections

Hard money Individuals Candidates Political Action Committees (PACs) Political parties

TABLE10.1: Hard money contribution limits 2013-2014

Money in General Elections

Public funding

Other money 527s 501s

Getting “Swift Boated”

Money in General Elections

Other money Super PACs-Play an increasingly

significant role.

Does money talk? Money grants access Money grants influence Money-givers have different interests

How Voters Decide

Social characteristics Major determinant of voter choice

Party loyalties Shortcut

Candidates Image over substance

Issues Retrospective voting

Presidential vote in 2012, by social group

Electoral College

Winner-take-all in most states Except Maine and Nebraska

Features of Electoral College Magnifies popular support of winners May let less popular candidate win Discourages third parties

TABLE 10.2: Election results, 1980-2012

© 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Discussion Questions

Do elections ensure popular control of government? Why or why not? How does who votes and who doesn’t vote influence the type of government policies we get?