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Emerging Technologies and the WebFinding a Balance Between Possibility and Reality
Brad Kasellbrad.kasell@au1.ibm.com
“What sets the new technologies apart from those of the Internet’s first generation is their canny way of turning self-interest into social
benefit - and real economic value.”
- Business Week, June 2005
4
Possibility vs Reality The Web Today The Nature of the Possibility Social Networking
The Architecture of Participation
Web Services and SOAThe Architecture of Integration
Open Source EverythingThe Architecture of Contribution
6
Small is the New Big
Skype128 Million Downloads
10.4 Billion Minutes Served
GreasemonkeyThe Web, Your Way
Is to the Deep Web What Hypertext is to Documents
Del.icio.us“Folksonomies”
Contextual Filter for the Web
“I knew it was over when I downloaded Skype,” Michael Powell, chairman, Federal Communications
Commission, explained.
“When the inventors of KaZaA are distributing for free a little program that you can use to talk to anybody
else, and the quality is fantastic, and it’s free – it’s over.
The world will change now inevitably.”
- Fortune Magazine, February 2004
7
The Rise of the Platforms
Web 2.0? Try 3.01.0 The Read-Only Web
2.0 The Interactive Web
3.0 The Programmable Web
PlatformsYahoo, Amazon, eBay
Google Everything
Internet Operating SystemOf All Things - YubNub?
A Command Line for the Web
9
The Hype Cycle
In the hype cycle, failure always precedes success
- Graeme Philipson, Sydney Morning Herald
Source: Gartner Group
10
10 1000
Sex
MP3
Shane Warne
1,000X
3%
97%
10,000,000
The Long Tail
Millions of Markets of Dozens Not pre-filtered by distribution
bottlenecks Inventory is "non-rivalrous“
Signal-to-noise problem is solvable with information tools
It's all about the diamonds, not the rough
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
11
The Long Tail (Cont.)
Three counterintuitive lessons of the Long Tail:
1. Niche content can be of higher quality than hit content.
2. It doesn't matter how much junk there is around those gems; with good filters, the average level of quality is irrelevant.
3. You can charge more for high-quality niche content because it is so well-suited to its audience.
Every single iTunes song has been bought at
least once
12
Fixed, stable feature set
Evolvable, changes with requirements
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
13
Fixed, stable feature set
Architected
Evolvable, changes with requirements
Evolved
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
14
Fixed, stable feature set
Architected Permanent
Evolvable, changes with requirements
Evolved Disposable
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
15
Fixed, stable feature set
Architected Permanent 100k-1M users
Evolvable, changes with requirements
Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
16
Fixed, stable feature set
Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces
Evolvable, changes with requirements
Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
17
Fixed, stable feature set
Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic
Evolvable, changes with requirements
Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
18
Fixed, stable feature set
Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic Generic
Evolvable, changes with requirements
Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined Specific
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
19
Fixed, stable feature set
Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic Generic Lock-in
Evolvable, changes with requirements
Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined Specific Open
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
20
Fixed, stable feature set, Architected, Permanent, 100k+ users, Big pieces
Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders
Changes with requirements, Evolved, Disposable, 1-1000 users, Small pieces
Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
21
Fixed, stable feature set, Architected, Permanent, 100k+ users, Big pieces
Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders Low-level tools
Changes with requirements, Evolved, Disposable, 1-1000 users, Small pieces
Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders High-level tools
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
22
Fixed, stable feature set, Architected, Permanent, 100k+ users, Big pieces
Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders Low-level tools
Complex, feature bloat
Changes with requirements, Evolved, Disposable, 1-1000 users, Small pieces
Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders High-level tools
Simple, few features (but right ones)
Implied RequirementsHead Tail
Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot
Social Networking
"There was a definite process by which one made people into friends, and it involved talking to them and listening to them for hours at a time.“
- Rebecca West
“The nearly 1 billion people online worldwide—along with their shared knowledge, social contacts, online reputations, computing power, and more—are rapidly becoming a collective force of unprecedented power.
For the first time in human history, mass cooperation across time and space is suddenly economical.”
- Business Week, June 2005
25
Social Networks Orkut, Friendster, Plaxo, … Overhyped and not very useful
Blogs/Wikis Rise of RSS/Atom Overhyped, but powerful Intra-Enterprise blogging emerges
Social Bookmarking Del.icio.us, Furl, Flickr, … Almost too simple
Podcasting Overhyped, but some real gems
Social NetworkingOrganisational power lies in relationships between people, and in their collaboration.
Web Services and SOA
“SOA, AJAX and REST: The Software Industry Devolves into the Fashion Industry”
– Dare Obasanjo, Microsoft
“e-business is about rebuilding the organization from the ground up. Most companies today are not built to exploit the Internet. Their business processes, their approvals, their hierarchies, the number of people they employ … all of that is wrong for running an e-business.”
- Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins
31
Web Services and SOA
Standards?Specifications Based on NeedQuality of Implementation?
ArchitectureHouse vs SkyscraperBest vs Good Enough
Web ApplicationsWeb Services/SOAAJAX/RESTLAMP/PHP
“I have yet to see any problem, however
complicated, which, when you looked at it in the right way, did
not become still more complicated.”
- Poul Anderson
33
RESTian Web Services Characteristics
Pull-based
Stateless/Cacheable/Layered
Uniform Interface (HTTP)
Named Resources (URL)
Interconnected Resource Representations Representations of the resources
are interconnected using URLs. Clients progress from one state to another.
Benefits Scales well Data transfer in streams of unlimited size and type Supports intermediaries (proxies and gateways) as data transformation
and caching components Concentrates the application state within the user agent components
REST requires you to rethink your problem in
terms of manipulations of addressable resources
instead of method calls to a component.
36
Open Source “Free” Software?
Not just Linux Development Models, Licensing,
Code Distribution, … Marketing Strategy = Lip Service
Community Model Usage vs Buy-in to Community
Model Philosophical vs Practical
Business Model Innovation Inhibitor? Sustainable?
JBoss: Only 3-5% customers buy support
Red Hat: 40% of profit from investment interest
Source: Daniel Lyons, Forbes
"Hack for the Dole"
CommunityCode is an Australian open source organisation that wants to help the unemployed receive credit for any
open source software development they do.
Why? Recipients of Centrelink's NewStart allowance can fulfil part or
all of their 'mutual obligation' requirements by doing volunteer work for a community organisation; second is that it might be useful for students
or other people starting out to get some "real live" development
experience.
- www.communitycode.org
37
Open Source Hygiene
Guide to Open Source Software for Australian Government Agencies
38
Open Source Considerations Risk: The market economy creates
accountability: Vendors that fail to fix flaws will eventually find themselves out of business.
Longevity: That is why customers feel more comfortable with brand-name vendors. It's not their marketing might that is appealing but their staying power.
Support: Customers want to know they will have the support they need when they need it.
Accountability: CIOs considering a move to open-source software need someone to hold accountable - someone who has the resources to address any problems that occur.
Funding: Venture capitalists pumped US$150 million into open source startups in 2004, triple the amount for 2003.
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