Ensuring food security under a changing climate & the potential of wheat in Africa: Perspectives...

http://wheat.org

Wheat in Africa A Prospective from CIMMYT

Dr. Thomas Lumpkin CIMMYT Director General Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 8 October 2012

Global Food Security Borlaug’s 1969 Prophecy

“The seriousness or magnitude of the world food problem should not be underestimated. Recent success in expanding wheat, rice and maize production in Asian countries offers the possibility of buying 20-30 years of time” N.E. Borlaug, 1969 – A Green Revolution Yields a Golden Harvest

CIMMYT’s Mission…

Sustainably increase the productivity

of maize and wheat systems to ensure

global food security and reduce poverty

Lead Center for WHEAT

Global Food Security Converging Challenges > Food

> Climate Change < Water < Petroleum < Soil Fertility < Biodiversity

= / > Food

Red dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates of “food riots” and protests associated with overall death toll reported in parentheses [26–55].

Global Food Security Food Prices and Social Unrest

Wheat in Africa Population Increases

UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2008) Population Division, World Population Prospects.

Wheat in Africa Imports and Rising Demand

Today Africa pays >$12 billion to import 30 millions tons of wheat

By 2050, North African wheat imports are projected to reach 25 million tons, SSA 35 million tons

By 2050, African countries will spend an >$24 billion for importing 60 million tons of wheat

Wheat in Africa Exports (Import) of Main Cereals (Sub-Saharan Africa)

Based on FAOSTAT Sept 2012

Source: Weigand, US Wheat Associates, 2011

Wheat in Africa Imports and Rising Demand

Wheat in Africa Potential for Increased Wheat Production

Simulated wheat yield under 100% of the recommended levels of fertilizer use (kg/ha)

CGIAR Strategy The CGIAR Research Program (CRP) on WHEAT

Expected Impact

An added value of wheat produced equaling USD 1.3 billion by 2020.

An additional USD 8.1 billion in wheat produced by 2030.

Enough wheat to feed an additional 56 million consumers by 2020.

Wheat to feed an additional 397 million by 2030.

Breaking the wheat yield barrier by 50%.

http://wheat.org

CGIAR Strategy The CGIAR Research Program on WHEAT

Implementers

CGIAR: CIMMYT, ICARDA, IFPRI, ILRI, and IRRI, CCAFS, GCP, HarvestPlus

85 National Agricultural Research Institutes

11 Regional and international organizations

69 Universities and advanced research institutes

14 Private sector organizations

14 NGOs and farmer cooperatives

20 Host countries

http://wheat.org

Strategy WHEAT has Strategic Partnerships

CAADP – CGIAR Alignment: Greater connectivity and focus between CAADP and the CGIAR research programs (CRPs), to bridge the gap between African demand for technical support and CGIAR

African Development Bank Support: Support to Agricultural Research for Development on Strategic Commodities in Africa (SARD-SC) including wheat.

Need for alignment is recognized!

Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results Africa: Critical for Global Rust Control

Ug99: present in 11 countries

Stem rust: >80% of global commercial wheat cultivars are susceptible to stem rust

Stripe rust: Global epidemics: Losses > $1 billion

2012 – Hidase Ogolcho

2011 – Gambo Hoggana Shorima Huluka

2010 – Danda’a Kakaba

2012 – Kenya Tae Kenya Sunbird

Kenya Wren Kenya Korongo Kenya Kingbird Kenya Hawk12 2011 – Robin

Eagle 10

Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results African Wheat Research Influences the Africa - BGRI

Significant progress by Kenyan and Ethiopian breeding programs (post Ug99 investments)

Ethiopia (EIAR): 8 rust resistant cultivars (Ug99 + Yellow rust) released 2010-12

Kenya (KARI): 8 rust resistant cultivars (Ug99 + Stripe rust) released 2011-12

By 2013, Kenya and Ethiopia will have enough rust resistant seed to replace susceptible varieties

Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results African Wheat Research Influences the World - BGRI

Two International rust screening nurseries – KARI/CIMMYT Njoro,

Kenya (Bread wheat)

– EIAR/CIMMYT Debre Zeit, Ethiopia (Durum wheat)

250,000+ global lines from 32 countries screened against stem rust (Ug99)

Njoro, Kenya - Lines evaluated (2005-2012)

Capacity Building Training at CIMMYT (1968-20120

66 Ethiopian nationals in long-term wheat training

35 Visiting Scientists from Ethiopia in the Global Wheat Program

381 African scientists trained at CIMMYT since 1968 (long-term wheat breeding, agronomy, pathology, and quality)

Rust courses in Kenya with BGRI (2009-2012) – 45 African scientists trained

– 16 from Ethiopia

Lutangu Makweti, trainee Wheat Improvement Course, Obregon, Mexico,

2012

Conclusion Key Points

Significant potential to increase African wheat production and reduce dependence on imports and price fluctuations.

>$12 billion to import 30 millions tons of wheat.

Wheat production needs regional cooperation and strengthened scientific capacity, seed companies, milling and processing.

Joint priorities need to be established to rapidly make progress.

Africa Wheat The Big Question