ET Industry Update May 2, 2017 - NASEO · August 2016 GeorgiaPower Alabama Power Gulf Power...

NASEOCharleston, SC

ET Industry UpdateMay 2, 2017

2

EV Market is Resilient and Growing

• Consumer interest increasing with greater vehicle range• Battery advancements improving EV economics• Automakers making significant investments in EVs• New vehicle models a key driver of growth• EV purchases resilient in period of low gas prices

February 16, 2017 AEP-Southern Dialogue

3

Technology Cost Reduction

SOURCE: Department of Energy, Revolution…Now - The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies – 2015 Update

-71%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mod

eled

Li-i

on b

atte

ry c

ost (

$/kW

h)

U.S. EV Battery Costs

4

Improving Cost, Capability

SOURCE: General Motors

2014 SparkMSRP: $27,495Range: 82 miles

2017 Bolt EVMSRP: $37,495Range: 238 miles

2011 VoltMSRP: $41,000Range: 380 mi. total (35 mi. electric)

2017 VoltMSRP: $33,220Range: 420 mi. total (53 mi. electric)

BEV

PHEV

5

Sales Progress

0

5K

10K

15K

20K

25K

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

U.S. Monthly EV Sales

OtherVolvoHondaHyundai-KiaDaimlerVWFCABMWToyotaFordTeslaNissanGM

SOURCE: Sales data from InsideEVs.com and HybridCars.com

6

Sales Progress

SOURCE: International Council on Clean Transportation

Global Annual EV Sales

7

43 New EVs Due Out Between 2016-2020

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Minivan / wagonSUV / CrossoverSports car / coupeLuxury sedanMid-range sedanCity carHatchback

Source:EPRI

8

Outlook: Policy

Watch list:• ZEV Mandate • State activity to drive adoption

• Federal Tax Credit • Fuel economy standards

SOURCE: Union of Concerned Scientists SOURCE: Auto Alliance

EV Model Availability by State

9

Charging Infrastructure Overview

• Over 80% of charging is likely to occur at home• Workplace and public used much less frequently

• Extended daily travel for BEVs• Increases electric mile share for PHEVs• Substitute when home charging is unavailable

• Business case for public charging is complex• Public quick charging needed for long distance BEV travel

February 16, 2017 AEP-Southern Dialogue

10

Outlook: Charging Infrastructure

• Trend: higher power charging• Targeted to needs:

• Home/workplace• Communities• Corridors

• New players and partnerships: • States• Automakers• Electrify America• Electric companies • EV charging companies • All of this is needed, and more

50150

320

Local Highway Inter-city

DC Fast Charge Power Levels (kW)

SOURCE: EVgo

11

ZEV Investment Commitment (Appendix C)

Environmental Mitigation Trust (Appendix D)

Amount $2 billion $2.7 billion

Allocation 40% ($800 million) for CA60% ($1.2 billion) for rest of U.S.

Allocated to states according to subject vehicle population

Timing 10 years (four 30-month cycles) Min. 3 years, max 15 years

Entity Spent by VW, subject to approval of EPA and CARB

Administered by a Trustee and lead agencies within each state

QualifiedActivities

Investments§ Infrastructure to support on-road

vehicles (ZEVs)§ Education and outreach§ Other activities that increase

access

Actions§ On- and off-road transportation

applications (retrofit or replace)§ ZEV infrastructure for passenger

cars (up to 15%)§ Diesel Emissions Reduction Act

(DERA) projects

VW Settlement - Summary

12

Electric Transportation Strategy

Alabama, Georgia, Gulf, Mississippi, SCS

Growth Leadership Research & Development

Readiness & Education

• PEV Rates & Rider Options

• Programs & Incentives

• Market & Customer Analytics

• Infrastructure

• Residential

• Workplace

• Community

• Education & Outreach

• Internal

• External

• Partnerships & Collaboratives

• EEI

• EPRI

• EDTA/GED

• Clean Cities

• NGOs

• OEMs

• EVSPs

• SO Fleet

• Charging Technology

• Network Operators

• Vehicle Smart Charging

• Wireless

• DC Fast Charging

• Vehicle Technology

• Driveline Efficiency

• VIA truck demonstration

• Alternative Technologies

• Fuel Cell

• CNG

Southern Company

• Commercial & Industrial

• Forklifts

• Seaports

• Mining

• Airports

• Overland Conveying

• Railways

• Med/Heavy trucks

• Refrigerated trucks

• Delivery trucks

• Mass transit

• Residential

• Plug in Electric Vehicles

13

• Port of Savannah• 23 Ship to Shore Cranes• Displaced the purchase of more than

4.5M gallons of diesel fuel per year• 41.4 MW

• Port of Mobile• 10 Ship to Shore Cranes• Displaced the purchase of 2M gallons

of diesel fuel per year• 18 MW

13

14

What Have We Done?August2016 Georgia Power AlabamaPower GulfPower Mississippi

PowerTOTALSO

PEVsRegisteredinStates 24,4971.4%ofstatevehiclemarket(2015)NewEVsalesdown81%fromH12015toH12016

1,1190.1%ofstatevehiclemarket(2015)NewEVsalesup71%fromH12015toH12016

17,4080.3%ofstatevehiclemarket(2015)NewEVsalesup59%fromH12015toH12016

2710.1%ofstatevehiclemarket(2015)Newsalesup185%fromH12015toH12016

43,295

PEVsRegisteredinSOTerritory

12,895 563 305 39 13,802

CustomersonPEVRate 2,962 271 75 N/A 3,308

ChargersatSOFacilities 122 83 29 35 269

Public Chargers 100 N/A N/A N/A 100Fleet, DemoPEVs 58 39 15 10 122

Employee EVOwners 300 20 10 2 332

RebatePrograms $500business$250residential$100builder

$500business$750residential$1,000vehicle$250dealer