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PEVs and the Consumer
Mobile Sources Technical Review Subcommittee
Bob Wimmer
Toyota Motor North America
December 13, 2012
Dec 2012
Toyota Electrification History
2
’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08 ’10 ’12 ‘13
Toyota RAV4-EV Prius
Prius V
Prius C
Prius PHEV
Camry HV
Highlander HV
Avalon HV
Lexus RX h
GS h
LS h
HS
CT
ES h New
New
15 years of electrified vehicle design, manufacturing and marketing experience
~1000 Leased ~500 Sold
Dec 2012
Market Growth Takes Time
3
0
1
2
3
4
5Sa
les
in M
illio
ns
Cumulative Toyota/Lexus Hybrid Sales
Global Sales
>4,200,000
US Sales
>1,800,000
Over 15% of Toyota’s year to date sales are hybrids
Dec 2012
Today's PEV Market
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Cu
mu
lati
ve S
ale
s
First 18-Months on the Market
Early HV Sales vs Early PHV-EV Sales (US Market)
PHV-EV
HV
Initial PEV sales out paced hybrids, but …..
4
Dec 2012
Significant Market Differences
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Cu
mu
lati
ve S
ale
s
First 18-Months on the Market
Early HV Sales vs Early PHV-EV Sales (US Market)
PHV-EV
HV
The major differences from a decade ago Average Weekly Real Gasoline Price During each 18-Month Period 2000 $1.52 Now $3.58
Average Federal Incentive During each 18-Month Period 2000 $0 Now $6,918
5
Dec 2012
6
PEV Market Size in 2012
Over 35,000 PEVs sold so far in 2012
There are 4 PHEVs sold
55 HEVs sold
For every one EV sold
1550 conventional vehicles sold
~ the same as Porsche
Dec 2012
7
PHEV Buyer Demographics
Vehicle Median Age
College Median Income
Male
Prius Mid-50s Grad School
<$100k ~ ½
Prius PHEV Early 50s ½ Grad School
>$150k > ¾
Lexus 60 Most <$150k ~ ½
RAV4 Late 50s ½ <$75k ~ 1/3
RAV4-EV Similar Highly Educated
Affluent ~ ¾
Prius PHEV “Image” - Environmentally friendly - Innovative - Technologically advanced
Similar % to
Prius v & c
Limited Cross Shopping - 35% with Volt - 25% with Leaf - 5% with Prius
Reasons for Buying Prius PHEV - EV & high MPG as HV - Gov incentive (rebate, carpool sticker, etc.)
- Fuel economy
Dec 2012
8
HV
Growing the PEV Market
Conventional Vehicles
PHEV
EV
HV
Dec 2012
Ear
ly A
dopt
ers
Early
Majo
rity
Late
Majo
rity
Inno
vato
rs
Reje
cte
rs
Chasm
2.5% 34% 34% 16%13.5%
Technology Adoption Theory
Technology Adoption Accelerating
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Electrified Vehicle Sales & Models
HV
% o
f N
ew
Sal
es
Nu
mb
er o
f HV
Mo
de
ls
Thru Oct 2012
Best year yet for electrified vehicle sales
Not yet mainstream – must jump chasm
9
Dec 2012
MPGe (Combined) 28 33 44 Fuel Cost per year $1100 $1550 $1150
Your Mileage May Vary
10
Consumers are overwhelmed
with data
How to choose???
200-
150-
100-
50-
0-
67
133
MPGe (Combined) 95 50 Fuel Cost per year $900 $1000
DC Area Electricity
Dec 2012
11
PEV Market Growth will Require
Time Significant expansion of hybrids Greater appeal to a broader demographic
Dec 2012
12
Thank You For Your Attention