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European Architectural Barometer – Q4 2019product ofTheme: Building Information Modeling
January 2020
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
Research background
Appendix
Index
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
Research background
Appendix
Index
4
Preface
The added value of the European
Architectural Barometer
Preface Q4 2019 report Theme part: BIM
For decision makers charged with considering
company resources, staffing, and marketing strategy,
a clear insight into future construction volumes is
essential. Economic indicators, however, seldom
provide an adequate picture of these volumes. Arch-
Vision combines economic indicators with architects’
expectations, in order to give insight in construction
volumes. In addition, a topical theme is investigated
every quarter to determine trends and developments
within the construction sector. That is why this report
is a must-have for each construction marketeer.
Every quarter we ask our clients for input about the
specific topics we cover. This quarter, Arch-Vision
would like to thank the following clients who actively
participated in the discussion, provided feedback
about the topic covered in this survey, and
contributed suggestions for the questionnaire and the
report:
• Interface
• Owens Corning
• Tata Steel Europe
This report is the Q4 2019 edition of the European
Architectural Barometer in which architects provide a
strong indication of the developments in the construction
sector. Next to the economic developments and the
forecasts for the next few years, this report also gives
you insights in the status of Building Information
Modeling (BIM) throughout the European construction
markets.
xxxxxxx
Ixxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In this quarter, architects were asked to what
extent they are familiar with BIM and to what
extent BIM is used already. The theme part also
discusses the limitations and strengths of BIM
and the reasons to start working or not start
working with BIM.
xxxxxxxxxxxx
• VELUX
• MOSA
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
Research background
Appendix
Index
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 3,1% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% € 162 xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% € 96,7 xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% € 65,5 xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%Barometer forecastsbuilding construction
Building volumes in billion euros
Building volumes in billion euros in the new-build segment
Building volumes in billion euros in the renovation segment
Forecast overviewFuture construction volumes in total, new-build and renovation
Index
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures
The United Kingdom
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
Research background
Appendix
14%17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q4 '0
9
Q4 '1
0
Q4 '1
1
Q4 '1
2
Q4 '1
3
Q4 '1
4
Q4 '1
5
Q4 '1
6
Q4 '1
7
Q4 '1
8
Q4 '1
9
EU UK
8
Development of order book Expecting empty order book in 12 months
Increase of more than 5% Increase of 0-5% Remains the same (0%)
Decrease of 0-5% Decrease of more than 5%
Based on previous year
Rolling Order book Barometer (based on Q4 2008)
Although architects are uncertain, this is not reflected in their order
books. A relatively stable image is seen.
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q4 '0
9
Q4 '1
0
Q4 '1
1
Q4 '1
2
Q4 '1
3
Q4 '1
4
Q4 '1
5
Q4 '1
6
Q4 '1
7
Q4 '1
8
Q4 '1
9
116,2
72,5
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Q1 '1
5
Q1 '1
6
Q1 '1
7
Q1 '1
8
Q1 '1
9
Building permits - Residential
Building permits - Non-residential
9
The British industry is relatively stable.
Some indicators are fluctuating but no
signs that could predict a crisis are seen.
Development building permits
Building volumes
Economic and construction related indicatorsValue
Q4 2018
Value
Q3 2019
Value
Q4 2019Q-2-Q development
GDP (quarterly growth rate) (%)* 0.2 0.4 Na Up
Consumer confidence indicator** -8.1 -9.4 -8.8 Up
Industrial confidence indicator** 5.0 -17.5 -18.5 Down
Construction confidence indicator** 2.1 -7.0 -15.5 Down
Production value buildings (index 2015=100)** 110.2 110.6 Na Same (Q3-Q2)
Architects with postponed projects (%)*** 39 49 44 Up
Architects with cancelled projects (%)*** 28 32 25 Up
Building permits residential (index 2015=100)** 106.3 116.2 Na
Building permits non-residential (index 2015=100)** 83.0 72.5 Na
1,2% 1,1% 2,9% 3,1% 1,3% 0,7% -1,4% -1,0% -1,0%
Source: *Country statistical office; ** Eurostat, *** Arch-Vision
It remains uncertain where the industry is heading, but for now it is a fairly
calm market that is driven by the residential segment. Investments in
housing projects and the demand for affordable houses keep the slightly
negative growth figures fairly stable.
Index 2015=100
Source: Eurostat
87,8 87,5 90,2 96,7 97,3 97,6 96,2 95,6 95,2
63,6 65,5 67,2 65,5 67,1 67,9 66,9 66,0 64,7
151,4 153,0 157,5 162,3 164,4 165,5 163,1 161,5 159,9
€0
€50
€100
€150
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
Building volumes new-build Building volumes renovation
10
The economic and construction figures are also available for:
• Germany
• France
• Spain
• Italy
• The Netherlands
• Belgium
• Poland
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
Europe
Research background
Appendix
Index
12
Dummy data has been used on the following slides, this means no
real data of this quarter is shown.
13
25%
25%25%
25%
ON PAPER
2D CAD
SOFTWARE2D AND 3D CAD
SOFTWARE
3D CAD
SOFTWARE
XX% XX% XX%works with works with works with
CAD software 1 CAD software 2 CAD software 3
Way of designing
14
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
Engineers/ installers
Internal colleagues
Contractors
Building owners
Investors/developers
Governmental institutions
ALWAYS REGULARLY SOMETIMES NOT
XX%
Paper
XX%
XX%
Cloud-storage
XX%
Digital software platforms
% Exchanging data always and regularly
Low level of
digitalization
High level of
digitalization
Data exchange withWay of data exchange
15
30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
10% 10% 10%0%
50%
100%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
BIM familiarity
BIM users
% of total projects
where BIM is used
BIM familiarity and usage development
16
Projects in 2019 in which
BIM is used
Turnover from BIM projects as
% of total turnover in 2019
0 to 2 years XX% XX%
3 to 5 years XX% XX%
6 to 10 years XX% XX%
11 years or longer XX% XX%
Usage and turnover development in BIM projects 2019
Projects in which BIM is
used
Turnover from BIM projects as
% of total turnover
2019 XX% XX%
2017 XX% XX%
2015 XX% XX%
Usage and turnover development in BIM projects
XX% XX% XX%works with works with works with
CAD software 1 CAD software 2 CAD software 3
XX% XX%works with
CAD software 4
works with
17
BIM-related software used Other BIM-related software used
18
50% 50%
Non BIM users
Started using BIM XX years
ago on average
BIM users50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
0%
50%
100%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Current percentage
of BIM users
Expected percentage
of BIM users
In total 22% expects
not to work with BIM.
Of those who expect
to work with BIM,
expect to start within
3.3 years from now.
50% 50%
Expect to start using BIM within XX
years on average
Do not expect to use BIM
Will start using BIM in the future
Current and expected percentage of BIM usersCurrent percentage of BIM users
19
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
20%
20%
20%
20%
STRONGLY
AGREEAGREE
NEITHER
AGREE/DISAGREEDISAGREE
STRONGLY
DISAGREE
DON’T
KNOW
BIM is difficult to implement, because many people
want to use/see traditional drawings
BIM is difficult to implement, because many people
are not able to understand/read the information/files
20
STRONGLY
AGREEAGREE
NEITHER
AGREE/DISAGREEDISAGREE
STRONGLY
DISAGREE
DON’T
KNOW
Manufacturers are key players in the integration of
BIM in construction projects
BIM leads to lower failure costs
BIM is relevant only for architectural practices
working on big projects
BIM reduces the time between the idea generation
and completion of a project
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
Cross-country comparison
Research background
Appendix
Index
CAD SOFTWARE 1 CAD SOFTWARE 2 CAD SOFTWARE 3
XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX%
22
Paper 2D CAD
software
2D and 3D CAD
software
3D CAD
software
XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX%
Way of designing
23
CAD
SOFTWARE 1
CAD
SOFTWARE 2
CAD
SOFTWARE 3
CAD
SOFTWARE 4
CAD
SOFTWARE 5
CAD
SOFTWARE 6
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
BIM-related software used
24
Way of data exchange
30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
25
Engineers/
installers
Internal
colleaguesContractors Building owners
Investors/
developers
Governmental
institutions
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Data exchange with
26
Poland
xx%
Italy
xx%Spain
xx%
France
xx%
Germany
xx%
The Netherlands
xx%
Belgium
xx%
The United Kingdom
xx%
Percentage of BIM users in Europe 2019
27
Projects in 2019 in which
BIM is used
Turnover from BIM projects as
% of total turnover in 2019
0 to 2 years XX% XX%
3 to 5 years XX% XX%
6 to 10 years XX% XX%
11 years or longer XX% XX%
Usage and turnover development in BIM projects 2019
Projects in which BIM is
used
Turnover from BIM projects as
% of total turnover
2019 XX% XX%
2017 XX% XX%
2015 XX% XX%
Usage and turnover development in BIM projects
28
Expectation when to start using BIM
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
NOT PLANNING TO IN 1-2 YEARS IN 3-5 YEARS >6 YEARS UNKNOWN AVERAGE*
In xx years
In xx years
In xx years
In xx years
In xx years
In xx years
In xx years
In xx years
*Average of respondents who are planning to start using BIM
**Results are indicative due to a low N (N <20)
1-2 YEARS AGO 3-5 YEARS AGO 6-10 YEARS AGO >11 YEARS AGO
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
Started using BIM
AVERAGE
xx years
xx years
xx years
xx years
xx years
xx years
xx years
xx years
XX XX
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2019 2023
29
Ranking
2019
Ranking
2023
xx xx
xx xx
xx xx
xx xx
xx xx
xx xx
xx xx
xx xx
Development of BIM users
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%
30
% (Strongly) agree minus (Strongly) disagree
BIM is difficult to implement, because many people want
to use/see traditional drawings
BIM is difficult to implement, because many people are
not able to understand/read the information/files
Manufacturers are key players in the integration of BIM in
construction projects
BIM leads to lower failure costs
BIM is relevant only for architectural practices working on
big projects
BIM reduces the time between the idea generation and
completion of a project
Preface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
The United Kingdom
Research background
Appendix
Index
XX% XX% XX%works with works with works with
CAD software 1 CAD software 2 CAD software 3
XX% XX%works with
CAD software 4
works with
Internal colleagues
Engineers/ installers
Contractors
Building owners
Governmental institutions
Investors/developers
32
25% 25% 25% 25%
ON PAPER 2D CAD SOFTWARE 2D AND 3D CAD SOFTWARE 3D CAD SOFTWARE
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
XX%
Paper
XX%
XX%
Cloud-storage
XX%
Digital software platforms
% Exchanging data always and regularly
ALWAYS REGULARLY SOMETIMES NOT
Way of designing Way of data exchange
33
40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
0%
50%
100%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Familiarity
BIM users
Projects in which BIM is used Turnover from BIM projects as
% of total turnover
2019 XX% XX%
2017 XX% XX%
2015 XX% XX%
BIM familiarity and usage development Usage and turnover development in BIM projects
50% 50%
50% 50%50%
50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
0%
50%
100%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
34
Non BIM users
Started using BIM XX years
ago on average
BIM users
Current percentage
of BIM usersExpected percentage
of BIM users
Current and expected percentage of BIM usersCurrent percentage of BIM users
NOT PLANNING TO IN 1-2 YEARS IN 3-5 YEARS UNKNOWN1-2 YEARS AGO 3-5 YEARS AGO 6-10 YEARS AGO >11 YEARS AGO
35
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
25% 25% 25% 25%25% 25% 25% 25%
Started using BIM Expectation when to start using BIM
Top 5 reasons for using BIM Top 5 reasons for not (yet) using BIM
AVERAGE
xx years
AVERAGE*
In xx years
*Average of respondents who are planning to start using BIM
XX% XX% XX%works with works with works with
CAD software 1 CAD software 2 CAD software 3
XX% XX%works with
CAD software 4
works with
BIM USER SINCE
1-2 years 3-5 years >6 years
xx Xx% Xx% Xx%
xx Xx% Xx% Xx%
xx Xx% Xx% Xx%
xx Xx% Xx% Xx%
xx Xx% Xx% Xx%
xx Xx% Xx% Xx%
xx Xx% Xx% Xx%
xx Xx% Xx% Xx%
36
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
BIM features used BIM-related software used
37
50%50%
Procurement of materials Designing of interior
finished in projects
Specify performances of
building products
50%50% 50%50%
Yes
XX
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Specific BIM features that are used
BIM features used Performances specified in projects
38
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Cooperation with parties using BIM Information shared with these parties
39
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Manufacturers are key players in the integration of
BIM in construction projects
BIM is difficult to implement, because many people
want to use/see traditional drawings
BIM leads to lower failure costs
BIM is difficult to implement, because many people
are not able to understand/read the information/files
BIM reduces the time between the idea generation
and completion of a project
BIM is relevant only for architectural practices
working on big projects
STRONGLY AGREE AGREE NEITHER AGREE/DISAGREE DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE DON’T KNOW
40
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Internet in general
Websites of manufacturers
General platforms/library
Build own objects/ database
Forums of specific BIM software
ALWAYS REGULARLY SOMETIMES NOT DON’T KNOW XX
XX
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%25% 25% 25% 25%
Channels used for BIM information/objects Platforms or libraries for specific BIM information/objects
Working with open file data versus native file data
OPEN FILE DATA EQUALLY NATIVE FILE DATA UNKNOWN
IndexPreface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
Research background
Appendix
Methodology
Quantitative phone research:
✓ 175 interviews per country in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK
✓ 100 interviews in the Netherlands and Belgium
✓ Total: minimum of 1.250 interviews per quarter
42
Research background
Research objectives
The objective of the European Architectural Barometer of Arch-Vision is to offer
profound insight into the current economic situation and trends among architectural
firms in the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and
Poland. The European Architectural Barometer provides knowledge about the
future building volumes and the way in which these building volumes will be
realized (trends).
Costs
Yearly subscription fee: € 6,000
Includes:
1. Four quarterly reports per year
2. Possibility to give your input on the questionnaire
Countries
Planning & Process each quarter
Draft questionnaire
Final questionnaire
Fieldwork, analysis, reporting
Report available
each quarter
43
Sample and methodology of the researchMost architectural firms have less than two FTE. Nevertheless, the focus of the European Architectural Barometer is on the larger firms. Therefore the research is
only conducted among architectural firms with two FTE and more. As the study is focused on architects active in construction, architects that are solely active in
interior or landscaping are excluded from the research.
The table below shows the number of successful interviews in each country. The difference between the gross sample of respondents that were reached (all reached
numbers) and the net sample of respondents that were reached, was caused by those architects who could not be contacted or had an incorrect phone number, and
those who did not meet the selection criteria (mostly due to the fact that the architectural firms had less than two FTE). The difference between the net sample of
respondents reached and the response are the number of architects who refused to participate.
Gross sample (all attempts to approach respondents) 1938 5122 4261 1912 1734 798 3026 2222
Net sample (all approached respondents) 342 964 277 352 256 315 278 504
Completed interviews 175 175 175 175 175 100 100 175
Response percentage (interviews/net sample) 51% 18% 63% 50% 68% 32% 36% 35%
Response
74%
61%57%
82%
71%76%
69%
57%
26%
39%43%
18%28%
23%
31%43%
UK GE FR SP IT NL BE PO
Average 7,5 xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
2 – 4 FTE
5 – 9 FTE
10 – 19 FTE
20 – 39 FTE
> 40 FTE
44
Background of the architects
The table below shows the average number of employees of the architectural firms within the current quarter of this research, divided by
country. The architectural firms with one employee were excluded from this research. The second table shows the segments in which
architects within this research are mostly active.
Number of FTE
Housing
Non-Residential
Segment mostly active
49%
27%
15%
7%
2%
45
Background of the architects
The figure below shows the split in activities in new build and renovation. xxxxxxxxx
New development or renovation
29%
33%
27%
37%
17%
41%
27%
58%
27%
19%
7%
20%
52%
16%
26%
9%
45%
47%
66%
43%
31%
42%
46%
34%
New build Renovation Both as much
IndexPreface
Forecast overview
Economic and construction figures per country
Theme part: Building Information Modeling
Research background
Appendix
47
Future
Construction
volumes
Sister
company
Barometer
Arch-Vision
Building
volumes
Interviews
The construction industry operates in a
delayed cyclical market, which means that
buildings designed today will not be ready until
at least two years from now. The economic
activities of architectural firms provide a strong
indication of the direction in which the
construction sector will develop in terms of
both building volumes and the way in which
building volumes will be realised.
Building volumes
Arch-Vision is a sister company of USP Marketing
Consultancy (www.usp-mc.eu), BouwKennis
(www.bouwkennis.nl), BauInfoConsult GmbH
(www.bauinfoconsult.de) and BuildInfoConsult
(www.buildinfoconsult.com). These are major
agencies each providing full-service research
support and specialised in the construction and real
estate markets.
Sister company
Architects have already been monitored by
several institutes in quite diverging ways
between the different countries. Arch-Vision
launched this European Architectural
Barometer for a more cohesive view. The
European Architectural Barometer is extremely
useful for organisations with a focus on Europe
that also want to compare the activities of
architects in different countries.
European Architectural Barometer
For decision makers charged with
considerations of company resources, staffing
and marketing strategy, a clear insight into
future construction volumes is essential.
However, economic indicators seldom provide
an adequate picture of these volumes.
Future construction volumes
All interviews are conducted by native
speakers. From the third measurement
onwards, two hundred interviews per country
have been completed per measurement. The
first two measurements were based on one
hundred interviews per country. Later, for the
Netherlands and Belgium, the measurements
returned to one hundred interviews.
Interviews
About Arch-Vision
48
Results per segmentFor three key questions from the current measurement of the European Architectural Barometer, the results are divided by architects that
realise most of their sales in the residential segment (0% – 30% non-residential), by architects that realise sales in both segments (31% - 70%
non-residential), and by architects that realise most of their sales in the non-residential segment (71% - 100% non-residential).
Segment most active
The tables on the following pages show the
abovementioned split with regard to the following questions:
• How did the turnover develop in this quarter
compared to the previous quarter?
• How did your order book develop in this quarter
compared to the same quarter last year?
• Do you expect that your order book might be empty
these coming 12 months?
58%
31%
26%
62%
48%
32%
48%
33%
20%
34%
38%
20%
34%
49%
26%
28%
22%
35%
36%
18%
18%
19%
26%
39%
0 - 30% 31 - 70% 71 - 100%
49
Short-term outlook among British architects
Expect empty backlog coming 12 months (%)
Q2Q Order Book Barometer (based on previous year)
Rolling Order Book Barometer (based on Q4 ’08)
2-9 FTE
10 or more FTE
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
17% 15% 18% 20% 16% 17% 24% 25% 23% 26% 30% 24% 28% 26% 29% 23%35% 28% 26% 26% 26% 28%
17% 25% 19% 20% 17% 26%
83% 85% 83% 81% 84% 84% 77% 75% 77% 74% 70% 77% 72% 74% 71% 78%65% 72% 74% 74% 74% 73%
83% 75% 81% 80% 83% 74%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1
'11
Q1
'12
Q1
'13
Q1
'14
Q1
'15
Q1
'16
Q1
'17
Q1
'18
Q1
'19
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1
'11
Q1
'12
Q1
'13
Q1
'14
Q1
'15
Q1
'16
Q1
'17
Q1
'18
Q1
'19
Q2Q Turnover Barometer (based on previous quarter)
Rolling Turnover Barometer (based on Q2 '09)
50
A short-term outlook is also available for:
• Germany
• France
• Spain
• Italy
• The Netherlands
• Belgium
• Poland
51
Development turnover and order book
% sales in
non-residential
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
Strongly increased (>5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Slightly increased (0-5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Stayed the same (0%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Slightly decreased (0-5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Strongly decreased (>5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Barometer order book XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
% sales in
non-residential
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
Strongly increased (>5%) XX% XX% 10% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Slightly increased (0-5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Stayed the same (0%) XX% XX% 63% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Slightly decreased (0-5%) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Strongly decreased (>5%) XX% XX% 3% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Barometer turnover XX XX 105 XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
Development turnover
(based on previous quarter)
Development order book
(based on previous year)
52
Expectation empty order book in the next 12 months
Expectation empty order book in the next 12 months
% sales in
non-residential
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
0 -
30
31 -
70
71 -
100
Yes XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
No XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Do not know XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
53
Building volumes split in new-build and renovation, residential and
non-residential
2021 2020 2019 2018
Resid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
Resid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
Resid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
Resid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
Resid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
Resid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
Resid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
Resid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
New
-bu
ild
No
n-r
esid
en
tial
Ren
ov
ati
on
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
Amounts in billions at 2013 prices
The European Architectural Barometer for the order book development and turnover development
is calculated in the following way:
1. Respondents with a strong increase (>5%) are multiplied by 100
2. Respondents with a slight increase are multiplied by 50
3. Respondents that remained the same are multiplied by 0
4. Respondents with a slight decrease are multiplied by –50
5. Respondents with a strong decrease (>5%) are multiplied by –100
6. The sum of these values divided by 100, results in the Q2Q saldo.
7. Adding 100 to this saldo results in the Barometer figures, where 0 is the strongest possible decrease,
100 is stabilisation and 200 is the strongest possible increase.
The Barometer values calculated this way are presented in the report as Quarter to Quarter Turnover and
Order book Barometer.
54
Methodology calculation of the Q2Q Saldo and Barometer
Example of calculation Q2Q Barometer value:
Development
Turnover SpainQ2 ’15
Calculated
Values
Increased by more than 5% 25% x 100 2500
Slightly increased (0-5%) 28% x 50 1400
Stayed the same (0%) 36% x 0 0
Slightly decreased (0-5%) 3% x -50 -150
Decreased by more than 5% 8% x -100 -800
Q2Q Saldo = (2500 + 1400 – 150 – 800) / 100 = 30
Q2Q Barometer value = 100 + 30 = 130
To calculate the developments in the turnover and the order book with regard to the first measurement in
2009, Arch-Vision has developed the so called Rolling Barometer. The Rolling Barometer is calculated as
the cumulative sum of the Q2Q saldos of every quarter. The Rolling Barometer can drop or rise by 100
points per quarter at maximum.
Example: The Rolling Order Book Barometer is -66 after twelve quarters. In the worst case (all architects
reporting a decrease of over 5% every quarter) the Rolling Barometer would be -1200. In the best case it
would be 1200. Therefore a score of -66 in Q4 2011 means a slightly worse situation than in Q4 2008.
55
Methodology calculation of the Q2Q Saldo and Barometer
Barometer order book
Q1’09 Q2’09 Q3’09 Q4’09 Q1’10 Q2’10 Q3’10 Q4 ‘10 Q1 ‘11 Q2 ‘11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ‘11
Q2Q Barometer values 71 75 100 85 100 110 94 94 111 102 94 99
Saldo Q2Q Values -29 -25 0 -15 0 10 -6 -6 11 2 -6 -1
Rolling Barometer Values -29 -54 -54 -69 -69 -59 -65 -71 -60 -59 -65 -66
+ (-25) + (0) + (-15) + etc.
56
Future building volumes: building a model – for prediction
Architects are at the front of the construction sector. They are the first
to perceive positive and negative changes. The current developments
of architectural firms have a strong predictive impact on the total
market. Arch-Vision publishes its predictions for the building volumes
based on the developments experienced by architects.
Building
volumes
Arch-Vision uses a model based on eleven market indicators and
Arch-Vision’s own results. The model combines information about the
economy, like construction requests and confidence figures, with data
about the developments within architects’ experience, such as
changes in the turnover and the number of active architects. Only
information that proved to have a strong correlative value on the
building volume is used. Subsequently, every kind of data is weighed
based on the predictive value.
The model
To ensure the correctness of the predictive value, the model has been
– with retroactive effects – compared to the actual growth and
shrinkage of the construction volume since 2003 for the Dutch* market
and since Q3 2009 for the remaining countries. The model turns out to
possess a very high predictive value. Nevertheless, the forecast has
to be interpreted with caution, as it remains a calculation. As with all
predictions, the margin of error can be larger, comparable to the
weather forecast: sometimes the Arch-Vision model can be
inaccurate.
High
predictive
value
The predictive value is calculated based on the consistency of the
market indicators with construction volumes, for the renovation,
maintenance and the new build markets. The correlation is
determined by a regression analysis, i.e. a statistical technique for
analyzing data in which there is a (possible) specific connection,
known as regression.
Calculation
predictive
value
* Since 2003 the developments at architects in the Netherlands have been monitored by Arch-Visions’ sister organisation BouwKennis. Therefore, it is possible for the Netherlands to calculate the
connection between the architects and the building volume based on 10 years of data.
57
Future building volumes: reliability of the model
The reliability of a prediction model is closely related to the length of a series of data. A time series of ten years - and thus 43 quarters - is reliable to
determine consistency. However, the results of Arch-Vision do not go back that far. Additionally, in some countries - like Italy - figures such as building permits
as well as consumer and producer confidence are not always available for the last quarter (or last quarters).
The reliability will therefore increase each quarter, as the time series will be getting larger and more consistent. The explanatory power of the model will
continue to grow, as calculations can be performed based on more periods (quarters).
Market volume
New build
Renovation
Maintenance
~40%Architect developments
and expectations
~60%Mix of market indicators
~25%Architect developments/expectations
~75%Mix of market indicators
Market influence
Market influence
58
Future building volumes: Calculation
The Dutch market has been taken as a basis. The correlation between market volume regarding new build, maintenance and renovation on the one hand, and
possible explanatory factors on the other hand, serves as a starting point.
The correlation with building volumes is tested for a total of eleven market indicators together with two outcomes of the European Architectural Barometer.
The correlation of the following four indicators appeared to be strongest:
• Building permits – m² of useful floor area in non-residential buildings
• Building permits, number of dwellings
• Development of Turnover Barometer (European Architectural Barometer figures)
• Number of FTE working at architectural companies (European Architectural Barometer figures)
The predicting value of these indicators is between 54% and 91%. Because a longer history of data was not available for most counties, the development of
these four indicators in the last four quarters and the four quarters before served as a guidance for this measurement. The used range of five indicators is not
static and can be adjusted for future calculations. With the database becoming more complete, more reliable correlations can adjust the mix of indicators. A
longer range of regression measurements shall replace the comparison of the last four quarters with the four quarters before.
The forecast is based on the market knowledge of USP Marketing Consultancy together with the market figures available, such as building permits and the
developments amongst architects which are mainly active in renovation or new build as well as mainly active in residential or non-residential. Due to the
limited number of quarters, a forecast based on a statistical model is not possible for now. The model that was used has a lower prediction value for this
period. However, USP Marketing Consultancy aims at clarifying the general direction of the construction market development by publishing these data and the
predictions will be updated in the coming reports.
59
Questionnaire – StandardThese questions are asked every measurement
1. How many employees (in FTE) does your company currently have, including yourself? [if less than 2 FTE, end of research]
2. What is your position?
3. As an architectural firm, are you mostly active in the segment housing, non-residential building, interior or landscaping? [If interior or landscaping, end of
research]
4. How many employees in FTE did your company have at the end of 2018?
5. How many employees in FTE did your company have at the end of 2017?
6. How many employees in FTE did your company have at the end of 2016?
7. If your turnover should relate to housing and non-housing, what percentage of your revenue do you get from housing-related jobs?
8. Are you mostly active in new build or renovation?
9. How did the turnover develop this quarter compared to the previous quarter? Decreased by more than 5%; Slightly decreased (0-5%); Stayed the same
(0%); Slightly increased (0-5%); Strongly increased (more than 5%)
10.How did your order book develop in this quarter compared to the same quarter previous year? Decreased by more than 5%; Slightly decreased (0-5%);
Stayed the same (0%); Slightly increased (0-5%); Strongly increased (more than 5%)
11. How many projects have been postponed in this quarter?
12. How many projects were not started and cancelled in this quarter?
13. Do you expect that your order book might be empty these coming 12 months?
60
Questionnaire – Theme questions
1. Do you design….?
• Mostly on paper
• Using 2D CAD software only
• Using 2D and 3D CAD software
• Using 3D CAD software only
2. What is the name of the CAD software your firm uses? [Only asked if CAD software is used]
3. How often do you exchange data with external stakeholders via the following ways? You can answer with Not; Sometimes; Regularly; Always.
• On paper
• Cloud storage
• Digital software platforms
4. Which of the following stakeholders do you digitally exchange data with? You can answer with Not; Sometimes; Regularly; 4 Always.
• Investor/ developer
• Building owner/ end user
• Contractors
• Engineers/ installers
• Governmental institutions
• Internal colleagues/ other architects and designers
5. Are you familiar with BIM?
6. What is the share of projects in which BIM is used? [Only asked when they are familiar with BIM]
7. What percentage of the turnover/ revenue comes from BIM projects? [Only asked if they use BIM]
8. Why did your organization start using BIM/ is using BIM? [Only asked if they use BIM]
9. Why is your organization not (yet) started with using BIM? [Only asked if they do not use BIM]
10.When will your company start developing BIM capability [Only asked if they do not use BIM]
11.When did your company started to work with BIM? [Only asked if they use BIM]
12.Which of the following features of BIM do you use?
• 3D visualization and animation
• Generation of 2D drawings from the 3D model
• Determining quantities of construction materials, equipment and man hours
61
Questionnaire – Theme questions
• Clash detection/ clash control, early warning of design errors
• 4D, coupling/ linkage with the planning
• 5D, coupling/ linkage with the costs
• Extra analysis and simulation capabilities (for example energy performance, fire resistance, or sustainability)
• Exchange of structured product information via a Common Data Environment
12.And BIM used in your projects for the following purposes?
• Specify performances of building products
• Procurement of materials
• Designing of interior finishes in project (such as flooring materials etc.)
13. Which performances of building products are specified in project by using BIM
14. Which BIM-related software do you use?
15. Which other parties do you already cooperate with using BIM processes in your projects?
16. What kind of information/ data do you share with these parties using BIM software?
17. To what extent do you use the following channels for specific BIM information/objects? You can answer with Not; Sometimes; Regularly; Always.
• We build our own objects and database
• Website of manufacturer
• Forums of specific BIM software where users exchange their objects
• General platform/ library collecting BIM information from different manufacturers
• Internet in general/ Google/ search engines
18. Can you mention any platform or library where you get your specific BIM information and objects?
19. Do you work more with open file data or with native file data?
20.To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? You can answer with Strongly disagree; Disagree; Neither agree nor disagree;
Agree; Strongly agree.
• BIM is difficult to implement at the construction site, because many people want to use/see traditional drawings
• BIM is difficult to implement at the construction site, because many people are not able to understand/read the information/files
• BIM leads to lower failure costs
• BIM reduces the time between the idea generation and completion of a project
• Manufacturers are key players in the integration of BIM in construction projects
• BIM is relevant only for architectural practices working on big projects
62
USP in figures
USP Marketing Consultancy
Total
70
Head office Subsidiary
Rotterdam Düsseldorf
Research AnalystsProject managers
Consultants
Market specialist installation, construction and DIY from the start
Dedicated and multi-client research
Active in the market for over 25 years
220 dedicated market research projectsin 2017
Revenue distribution
turnover coming from international projects
70%
turnover coming from dedicated market
research, 10% from multi client
90%
turnover coming from B2B, 30% B2C
70%
focus groups in-depth interviews
82 1.102
B2B CATI interviews
B2C online interviews
57.881 57.250
Research in
39countries in 2017
63
USP’s of USP
Deep knowledge of the
industry
Experienced in qualitative
and quantitative market
research
Dedicated market
research both B2B and
B2C
Market specialist for the
construction, DIY and
installation market for
over 25 years
Strong network of
partners covering all
major countries in the
world
Ability to conduct
research in multiple
countries at the same
time
Multi client reports
covering installers,
contractors, painters,
consumers and architects
Fact based consultancy
Dedication, honesty and
love for the industry
Ability to target all
relevant stakeholders in
the construction and DIY
markets
64
What we do – Dedicated market research
Examples Dedicated market research
• Tailor made
• Driven by your information needs
• Advice & consultancy based on facts and over 25 years of experience in the industry
• Worldwide coverage
• B2B, B2C, qualitative and quantitative research or a combination of both
• Within our market specialism, all types of researches can be conducted
• Targeting the right audience, with the right questions at the right time.
Segmentation Customerjourney
Branding Concept/product research
Customersatisfaction
Trends Distributionresearch
Marketexploration
Pricing Marketsize
65
Country scope
Providing continuous information for our clients about their main target groups based on facts. Providing insights on key trends, turnover development, futurebuilding volumes, background characteristics of the target groups and much more.
European architectural
Barometer
8 countries
reports quarterly
6,400 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like BIM, DMU,
Media orientation and
future building
volumes
Architects
European contractors
monitor
8 countries
reports bi-annually
2,200 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like BIM, DMU,
Media orientation and
branding
Contractors
European mechanical
installation monitor
6 countries
reports quarterly
4,800 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like Branding,
purchase channels,
Media orientation and
characteristics including
turnover and order book
developments
HVAC installers
European electrical
installation monitor
7 countries
reports quarterly
4,800 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like Branding,
purchase channels,
Media orientation and
characteristics including
turnover and order book
developments
Electrical installers
Painter insights
8 countries
reports yearly
2,000 interviews by
phone annually
Trends like mechanical
application, labour
shortage, purchase
points and branding
Painters
European home
improvement monitor
11 countries
reports quarterly
26,400 online interviews
annually
Trends like DIY vs
DFM, online buying,
branding and
information on a
product level
Consumers
66
What we do – Multi client research
67
Clients of USP
Construction Installation DIY Living & Real Estate
68
Trends & Vision in the market
Shifting decision making
Building information
modelling will become a
license to operate
Design, Build and
maintainSmart homes / offices Ageing society in Europe
Going from gas heating
towards electric
Prefab will become more
widespread
Online buying of products
by professionals
Changing role of the
wholesale
Qualitative & quantitative
labour shortage Europe
Building industry needs to
become smarter, faster
and cheaper
Digitisation
Increase influence
engineers & contractors
Changing role of the DIY
stores
69
For questions and more information
Jan-Paul Schop
Managing Director
Schop@usp-mc.nl
+31 6 55786342
Jeroen de Gruijl
Project Manager Arch-Vision
deGruijl@usp-mc.nl
+31 6 83979041
Dirk Hoogenboom
Research Consultant
Hoogenboom@usp-mc.nl
+31 6 52098924
© January, 2020 USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
The information in this publication is strictly confidential and all relevant copyrights,
database rights and other (intellectual) property rights are explicitly reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published without the prior
written permission of USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
Max Euwelaan 51
3062 MA Rotterdam
+31-10-2066900
info@usp-mc.nl
https://www.usp-mc.nl/en/
Head office USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
Max Euwelaan 513062 MA, Rotterdam
+31-10-2066900
+31-10-2066901
info@usp-mc.nl
+31-10-8002700
www.usp-mc.nl
Where can you find us?
© 07 February 2020, USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
The information in this publication is strictly confidential and all relevant copyrights, database rights and other (intellectual)
property rights are explicitly reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published without the prior
written permission of USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.
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