Evaluation of the Requirements of the Forecasters

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Evaluation of theEvaluation of the

Requirements of the Requirements of the ForecastersForecasters

COST 722, Phase I, WGiiCOST 722, Phase I, WGii

Urs SutterUrs Sutter

MeteoSwissMeteoSwiss

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

OutlineOutline

1.1. General OverviewGeneral Overview

2.2. Highlights of the AnswersHighlights of the Answers

3.3. Some AnalysisSome Analysis

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 1: Forecaster ServicesQuestion 1: Forecaster Services

3326

61

86

0102030405060708090

100

Aviation Marine Road Phone etc.

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 2: Observations (1)Question 2: Observations (1)

10

0 0 0

25

11 148

85

13

40 1

23

12

30

14

94

45

21

0102030405060708090

100

Alway

s

Somet

imes

Never

Not a

vail.

Don't

know

SYNOPAutoSYNOPMETARAUTOMETAR

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 2: Observations (2)Question 2: Observations (2)

28

29

4

31

13 14

3

82

14

1 3 2

1721

37

10

5450

5

0102030405060708090

Alway

s

Somet

imes

Never

Not a

vail.

Don't

know

AWSAuto VIS meas.Upper Air SoundingRoad Weather StationsWindprofilerMast Measurements

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 2: Observations (3)Question 2: Observations (3)

2320

3 3

19

30 0

63

32

18

04

11

64

104

12

36

5

1310 12

43

81

10

54

36

27

0102030405060708090

Alway

s

Somet

imes

Never

Not a

vail.

Don't

know

Weather RadarMETEOSATNOAACloud RadarVideo/Web CAMMast Measurements

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 2: Observations (4)Question 2: Observations (4)

6

30

55

15

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Alway

s

Somet

imes

Never

Not a

vail.

Don't

know

Radiation Balance

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 3: Very Shortrange Question 3: Very Shortrange FCST SystemFCST System

70

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Yes No

YesNo

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 4Question 4Where are OBS?Where are OBS?

4

11

4

1

7

1

25

1

1012

1012

0

28

5

2

22

8

33

10

3

0

29

2525 25

8

00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Workstation Internet Intranet Elsewhere

SYNOPMETARAWSUpper Air SoundingWeather radarMETEOSATNOAAVideo/Web

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 5.1Question 5.1How satisfied ?How satisfied ?

32

39

18

2

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1 (veryunsatisfied)

2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 5.2Question 5.2Main shortages ?Main shortages ?

10883

177

98

361

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Rank points

Update too slowRrepresentation poorInformation dispersedtoo few observationsall data not shown

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 5.3 (1)Question 5.3 (1)What OBS required more often ?What OBS required more often ?

37

2932

16 16

10

42

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

SYNOP METAR TEMP SAT (i.e.NOAA)

AWS Visibility Ceilometer

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 5.3 (2) Question 5.3 (2) How often ?How often ?

15

4

9 9

5

11

46

37

1

5

11 10

1

4 5 43

0 1

4 43

02 1

8

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

more than1 h

1 h 30' 15' real time

SYNOPMETARTEMPSAT (i.e. NOAA)AWSVisibilityCeilometer

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 5.4 (1)Question 5.4 (1)What NEW OBS required?What NEW OBS required?

1816

15 1513

11

19

02468

101214161820

Visib

ility

Profil

er (W

ind-

/Tem

p.-)

Web

)CAM

s

SAT (i.e

. NOAA/M

SG)

Ceilo

met

erAW

S

Cloud

radar

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 5.4 (2) Question 5.4 (2) How often ?How often ?

1 1

8

9

2

3

7

4

3

1 1

2

9

1

6

7

5

3

4

1 1

5 5

3

2 2

7

4

0123456789

10

morethan 1 h

1 h 30' 15' real time

Visibility(Wind-)Profiler/SodarWeb(CAMs)CeilometerSAT (Fog Channel)AWSCloud radar

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 5.5Question 5.5Opinion about Geographical Opinion about Geographical

locations?locations?

23

29

52

44

4

49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

YES by my ownactivity

They ask NO Would liketo

Would notlike to

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 6.1Question 6.1How often?How often?

26

13

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

never sometimes often

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 6.2Question 6.2How satisfied ?How satisfied ?

25

12

5

1

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 (veryunsatisfied)

2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 6.3Question 6.3Main shortages ?Main shortages ?

4840

123

45

110

020406080

100120140

Updat

e to

o slo

w

Repre

senta

tion

poor

Info

rmat

ion

disp

erse

d

too fe

w obse

rvat

ions

all d

ata

not s

hown

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 6.4 (1)Question 6.4 (1)What OBS required more often ?What OBS required more often ?

7

12

57

4 4

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

SYNOP

META

R

TEMP

SAT (i.e

. NOAA)

AUTOSYNOP

Visib

ility

Ceilo

met

er

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 6.4 (2) Question 6.4 (2) How often ?How often ?

12

5

22

5

12

1

2

45

4

1 1

2

1

2

1

2

1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

more than1 h

1 h 30' 15' real time

SYNOPMETARTEMPSAT (i.e. NOAA)AUTOSYNOPVisibilityCeilometer

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 6.5 (1)Question 6.5 (1)What NEW OBS required?What NEW OBS required?

4

5

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

TEMP/ra

dioso

undin

g

SAT ("fo

g ch

anne

l")

(Web

-) CAM

sAW

S

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 6.5 (2)Question 6.5 (2)Others mentionedOthers mentioned

• VisibilityVisibility• AUTOSYNOPAUTOSYNOP• (Net) Radiation(Net) Radiation• CeilometersCeilometers• BuoyBuoy• WindprofilerWindprofiler• More OBSMore OBS

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 6.5 (3) Question 6.5 (3) How often ?How often ?

12

3

17

8

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

more than 1 h 1 h 30' 15' real time

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.1Question 7.1Official Climate Info?Official Climate Info?

59

12

21

10

31

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

YES Specificdomestic

Specificforeign

mapdomestic

map foreign NO

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.2Question 7.2Do you use climate info ?Do you use climate info ?

40

62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

YES NO

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.3Question 7.3Which sources ?Which sources ?

3539 39

2218

9

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

My

own

Map

/dia

gram

s

paper

com

puter

numer

ical

/sta

tistic

s

paper

com

pter

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.4Question 7.4What kinds ?What kinds ?

1412

97

65

15

02468

10121416

diagra

ms

loca

l/num

erica

l sta

tistic

s

loca

l dia

gram

s (e

.g. a

irp...

exper

ienc

em

aps

tables

case

stu

dies

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.5Question 7.5Main shortages ?Main shortages ?

87102

181

2737

020406080

100120140160180200

Do no

t know

how to

use

poor r

epre

senta

tion

info

rmat

ion

disp

erse

d

few s

ites

data n

ot av

ailab

le

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.6 (1) Question 7.6 (1) What climate info would you like?What climate info would you like?

1816

1210 9

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

do no

t know

!

numer

ical

met

hods/m

o...

diagra

ms

loca

l sta

tisic

s, p

robb

ilitie

s

more

clim

ate s

ites/

data

map

s

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.6 (2)Question 7.6 (2)additional answersadditional answers

• Frequency maps or variablesFrequency maps or variables• MapsMaps• ProfilesProfiles• More dataMore data• Radiation balanceRadiation balance• Weather type cliamtologyWeather type cliamtology

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.7 (1) Question 7.7 (1) Do you have special statistical Do you have special statistical

model for prediction ?model for prediction ?

17

2 2

74

01020304050607080

NOYES

clim

atol

ogic

al ch

eckl

ists

exper

imen

tal s

tatis

tics

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 7.7 (2) Question 7.7 (2) additional answers:additional answers:

• MOSMOS• Experimental statisticsExperimental statistics• Model 850 hPa WBPT vs SSTModel 850 hPa WBPT vs SST• Statistical modelStatistical model• Saunders, CRADOCK, COBEL, NIMROD ..?Saunders, CRADOCK, COBEL, NIMROD ..?

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 8.1Question 8.1Numerical ModelsNumerical Models

17

13

35

15

74

14 5

14

4

39

2

05

1015202530354045

ECWMF ALADIN ARPEGE HIRLAM(DK, FIN,

ESP)

UK Meso aLMo

WorkstationInternetIntranet

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 8.2Question 8.2Numerical Models: pressure level Numerical Models: pressure level

fieldsfields• In general: In general:

Combination ofCombination of• SFCSFC• 1000 hPa1000 hPa• 950 hPa950 hPa• 925 hPa925 hPa• 850 hPa850 hPa• 800 hPa800 hPa

• ALADIN:ALADIN:– 2, 10, 50, 100, 2, 10, 50, 100,

250, 500, 750 250, 500, 750 1000, 1250, 1000, 1250, 1500 m1500 m

– 1000, 950, 900, 1000, 950, 900, 850, 800 hPa850, 800 hPa

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 8.3Question 8.3Numerical Models: pressure level Numerical Models: pressure level

fields proposedfields proposed• d 20 hPad 20 hPa

• d 5 and 10 hPad 5 and 10 hPa

• 950 hPa950 hPa

• No more levelsNo more levels

• As much as As much as possiblepossible 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

#

d 50 hPad 25 hPa

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 8.4 (1)Question 8.4 (1)available model products ?available model products ?

9

64

45

27

9

53

81

19

67

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

YES NO

Troposhere modelsounding of tt, rh, wind

model soundingfocused on boundarylayertime-height crosssectinos of differentlevelsMeteograms

cross sections ofdiferent fields

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 8.4 (2)Question 8.4 (2)available model products ?available model products ?

53

59

10

66

44

7

31

18

32

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

YES NO

diagnosed visibilityfieldsdiagnosed low cloudsbase fieldsdiagnosed low cloudstop fieldsdiagnosed low cloudsbase amountdiagnosed low cloudsbase phase

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 8.5Question 8.5How satisfied ?How satisfied ?

44

20

5

0

26

05

101520253035404550

1 (veryunsatisfied)

2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 8.6Question 8.6Main shortages ?Main shortages ?

5636

245

31 22

72

050

100150200250300

Produ

cts

too

late

Poor r

epre

senta

tion

Info

rmat

ion

disp

erse

d

few u

sefu

l pro

ducts

mode

l erro

rs/n

ot reli

abl..

.

FG not p

redict

ed

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

•Question 8.7Question 8.71-d models available ?1-d models available ?

• Check (d)p, tCheck (d)p, tLL, , ttDD, wind, wind

• ALADINALADIN• Only for Only for

visibilityvisibility• 30 years of 30 years of

experienceexperience0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

#

YESNO

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Question 8.8Question 8.8new productsnew products

• high resolution in the boundary layerhigh resolution in the boundary layer (12)(12)• Boundary layer modelBoundary layer model (11)(11)• Low cloud parameter modelLow cloud parameter model (7)(7)• Fog model (determ./probab./statis.)Fog model (determ./probab./statis.) (7)(7)• Radiation balance modelRadiation balance model (4)(4)• Cross-sectionsCross-sections (4)(4)• 1-d model for specific location1-d model for specific location (4)(4)• ......