Evaluation of the Requirements of the Forecasters

COST722 WG ii - MCHCOST722 WG ii - MCH

Evaluation of theEvaluation of the

Requirements of the Requirements of the ForecastersForecasters

COST 722, Phase I, WGiiCOST 722, Phase I, WGii

Urs SutterUrs Sutter

MeteoSwissMeteoSwiss


OutlineOutline

1.1. General OverviewGeneral Overview

2.2. Highlights of the AnswersHighlights of the Answers

3.3. Some AnalysisSome Analysis


Question 1: Forecaster ServicesQuestion 1: Forecaster Services

3326

61

86

0102030405060708090

100

Aviation Marine Road Phone etc.


Question 2: Observations (1)Question 2: Observations (1)

10

0 0 0

25

11 148

85

13

40 1

23

12

30

14

94

45

21

0102030405060708090

100

Alway

s

Somet

imes

Never

Not a

vail.

Don't

know

SYNOPAutoSYNOPMETARAUTOMETAR



28

29

4

31

13 14

3

82

14

1 3 2

1721

37

10

5450

5

0102030405060708090

Alway

s

Somet

imes

Never

Not a

vail.

Don't

know

AWSAuto VIS meas.Upper Air SoundingRoad Weather StationsWindprofilerMast Measurements



2320

3 3

19

30 0

63

32

18

04

11

64

104

12

36

5

1310 12

43

81

10

54

36

27

0102030405060708090

Alway

s

Somet

imes

Never

Not a

vail.

Don't

know

Weather RadarMETEOSATNOAACloud RadarVideo/Web CAMMast Measurements



6

30

55

15

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Alway

s

Somet

imes

Never

Not a

vail.

Don't

know

Radiation Balance


Question 3: Very Shortrange Question 3: Very Shortrange FCST SystemFCST System

70

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Yes No

YesNo


Question 4Question 4Where are OBS?Where are OBS?

4

11

4

1

7

1

25

1

1012

1012

0

28

5

2

22

8

33

10

3

0

29

2525 25

8

00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Workstation Internet Intranet Elsewhere

SYNOPMETARAWSUpper Air SoundingWeather radarMETEOSATNOAAVideo/Web


Question 5.1Question 5.1How satisfied ?How satisfied ?

32

39

18

2

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1 (veryunsatisfied)

2 3 4 5 (verysatisfied)


Question 5.2Question 5.2Main shortages ?Main shortages ?

10883

177

98

361

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Rank points

Update too slowRrepresentation poorInformation dispersedtoo few observationsall data not shown


Question 5.3 (1)Question 5.3 (1)What OBS required more often ?What OBS required more often ?

37

2932

16 16

10

42

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

SYNOP METAR TEMP SAT (i.e.NOAA)

AWS Visibility Ceilometer


Question 5.3 (2) Question 5.3 (2) How often ?How often ?

15

4

9 9

5

11

46

37

1

5

11 10

1

4 5 43

0 1

4 43

02 1

8

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

more than1 h

1 h 30' 15' real time

SYNOPMETARTEMPSAT (i.e. NOAA)AWSVisibilityCeilometer


Question 5.4 (1)Question 5.4 (1)What NEW OBS required?What NEW OBS required?

1816

15 1513

11

19

02468

101214161820

Visib

ility

Profil

er (W

ind-

/Tem

p.-)

Web

)CAM

s

SAT (i.e

. NOAA/M

SG)

Ceilo

met

erAW

S

Cloud

radar



1 1

8

9

2

3

7

4

3

1 1

2

9

1

6

7

5

3

4

1 1

5 5

3

2 2

7

4

0123456789

10

morethan 1 h


Visibility(Wind-)Profiler/SodarWeb(CAMs)CeilometerSAT (Fog Channel)AWSCloud radar


Question 5.5Question 5.5Opinion about Geographical Opinion about Geographical

locations?locations?

23

29

52

44

4

49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

YES by my ownactivity

They ask NO Would liketo

Would notlike to


Question 6.1Question 6.1How often?How often?

26

13

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

never sometimes often



25

12

5

1

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 (veryunsatisfied)




4840

123

45

110

020406080

100120140

Updat

e to

o slo

w

Repre

senta

tion

poor

Info

rmat

ion

disp

erse

d

too fe

w obse

rvat

ions

all d

ata

not s

hown


Question 6.4 (1)Question 6.4 (1)What OBS required more often ?What OBS required more often ?

7

12

57

4 4

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

SYNOP

META

R

TEMP

SAT (i.e

. NOAA)

AUTOSYNOP

Visib

ility

Ceilo

met

er



12

5

22

5

12

1

2

45

4

1 1

2

1

2

1

2

1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

more than1 h


SYNOPMETARTEMPSAT (i.e. NOAA)AUTOSYNOPVisibilityCeilometer


Question 6.5 (1)Question 6.5 (1)What NEW OBS required?What NEW OBS required?

4

5

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

TEMP/ra

dioso

undin

g

SAT ("fo

g ch

anne

l")

(Web

-) CAM

sAW

S


Question 6.5 (2)Question 6.5 (2)Others mentionedOthers mentioned

• VisibilityVisibility• AUTOSYNOPAUTOSYNOP• (Net) Radiation(Net) Radiation• CeilometersCeilometers• BuoyBuoy• WindprofilerWindprofiler• More OBSMore OBS



12

3

17

8

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

more than 1 h 1 h 30' 15' real time


Question 7.1Question 7.1Official Climate Info?Official Climate Info?

59

12

21

10

31

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

YES Specificdomestic

Specificforeign

mapdomestic

map foreign NO


Question 7.2Question 7.2Do you use climate info ?Do you use climate info ?

40

62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

YES NO


Question 7.3Question 7.3Which sources ?Which sources ?

3539 39

2218

9

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

My

own

Map

/dia

gram

s

paper

com

puter

numer

ical

/sta

tistic

s

paper

com

pter


Question 7.4Question 7.4What kinds ?What kinds ?

1412

97

65

15

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10121416

diagra

ms

loca

l/num

erica

l sta

tistic

s

loca

l dia

gram

s (e

.g. a

irp...

exper

ienc

em

aps

tables

case

stu

dies



87102

181

2737

020406080

100120140160180200

Do no

t know

how to

use

poor r

epre

senta

tion

info

rmat

ion

disp

erse

d

few s

ites

data n

ot av

ailab

le


Question 7.6 (1) Question 7.6 (1) What climate info would you like?What climate info would you like?

1816

1210 9

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

do no

t know

!

numer

ical

met

hods/m

o...

diagra

ms

loca

l sta

tisic

s, p

robb

ilitie

s

more

clim

ate s

ites/

data

map

s


Question 7.6 (2)Question 7.6 (2)additional answersadditional answers

• Frequency maps or variablesFrequency maps or variables• MapsMaps• ProfilesProfiles• More dataMore data• Radiation balanceRadiation balance• Weather type cliamtologyWeather type cliamtology


Question 7.7 (1) Question 7.7 (1) Do you have special statistical Do you have special statistical

model for prediction ?model for prediction ?

17

2 2

74

01020304050607080

NOYES

clim

atol

ogic

al ch

eckl

ists

exper

imen

tal s

tatis

tics


Question 7.7 (2) Question 7.7 (2) additional answers:additional answers:

• MOSMOS• Experimental statisticsExperimental statistics• Model 850 hPa WBPT vs SSTModel 850 hPa WBPT vs SST• Statistical modelStatistical model• Saunders, CRADOCK, COBEL, NIMROD ..?Saunders, CRADOCK, COBEL, NIMROD ..?


Question 8.1Question 8.1Numerical ModelsNumerical Models

17

13

35

15

74

14 5

14

4

39

2

05

1015202530354045

ECWMF ALADIN ARPEGE HIRLAM(DK, FIN,

ESP)

UK Meso aLMo

WorkstationInternetIntranet


Question 8.2Question 8.2Numerical Models: pressure level Numerical Models: pressure level

fieldsfields• In general: In general:

Combination ofCombination of• SFCSFC• 1000 hPa1000 hPa• 950 hPa950 hPa• 925 hPa925 hPa• 850 hPa850 hPa• 800 hPa800 hPa

• ALADIN:ALADIN:– 2, 10, 50, 100, 2, 10, 50, 100,

250, 500, 750 250, 500, 750 1000, 1250, 1000, 1250, 1500 m1500 m

– 1000, 950, 900, 1000, 950, 900, 850, 800 hPa850, 800 hPa


Question 8.3Question 8.3Numerical Models: pressure level Numerical Models: pressure level

fields proposedfields proposed• d 20 hPad 20 hPa

• d 5 and 10 hPad 5 and 10 hPa

• 950 hPa950 hPa

• No more levelsNo more levels

• As much as As much as possiblepossible 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

#

d 50 hPad 25 hPa


Question 8.4 (1)Question 8.4 (1)available model products ?available model products ?

9

64

45

27

9

53

81

19

67

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

YES NO

Troposhere modelsounding of tt, rh, wind

model soundingfocused on boundarylayertime-height crosssectinos of differentlevelsMeteograms

cross sections ofdiferent fields


Question 8.4 (2)Question 8.4 (2)available model products ?available model products ?

53

59

10

66

44

7

31

18

32

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

YES NO

diagnosed visibilityfieldsdiagnosed low cloudsbase fieldsdiagnosed low cloudstop fieldsdiagnosed low cloudsbase amountdiagnosed low cloudsbase phase



44

20

5

0

26

05

101520253035404550

1 (veryunsatisfied)




5636

245

31 22

72

050

100150200250300

Produ

cts

too

late

Poor r

epre

senta

tion

Info

rmat

ion

disp

erse

d

few u

sefu

l pro

ducts

mode

l erro

rs/n

ot reli

abl..

.

FG not p

redict

ed


•Question 8.7Question 8.71-d models available ?1-d models available ?

• Check (d)p, tCheck (d)p, tLL, , ttDD, wind, wind

• ALADINALADIN• Only for Only for

visibilityvisibility• 30 years of 30 years of

experienceexperience0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

#

YESNO


Question 8.8Question 8.8new productsnew products

• high resolution in the boundary layerhigh resolution in the boundary layer (12)(12)• Boundary layer modelBoundary layer model (11)(11)• Low cloud parameter modelLow cloud parameter model (7)(7)• Fog model (determ./probab./statis.)Fog model (determ./probab./statis.) (7)(7)• Radiation balance modelRadiation balance model (4)(4)• Cross-sectionsCross-sections (4)(4)• 1-d model for specific location1-d model for specific location (4)(4)• ......

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Evaluation of the Requirements of the Forecasters