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VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Torsti LoikkanenResearch Manager
VTT Technology Studies (VTT-TS)http//www.vtt.fi/ttr/indexe.htm
Mutual Learning Workshop 2nd December 2005, IPTS, Seville
Foresight in Policy Making System –Finnish Perspectives
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Outline
h Personal views on (mainly technology) foresight in Finlandh Role of learning – Nonaka´s SECI modelh Research profile of VTT Innovation Policy Studiesh Assessment of (technology) foresighth How to link past, current and future in innovation policy
studies?h How to link different phases of policy-making h Policy-making, policy-makers and foresight
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Views on foresight in Finland
h Tradition: practical applying of new concepts NSI, cluster analysis.. by NCST and policy-makers (e.g. national R&D cluster programs)
h Foresight tradition: Rome Club, TA/TF of Future Committee of Parliament, regional foresights, VTT & Tekes activities, ...
h Recent policy initiatives: National Platform (survey), Finsight by Tekes and Academy, VTT activities (internal, services) spurred also by globalization
h Industry (besides internal strategic foresight) engaged in public initiatives (e.g. Nordic hydrogen, several TRMs) also spurred by globalization
h Nordic initiatives : Survey, H2-TF, Foresight Platform, ICT... h Participation in EU level and global activities (e.g. NISTEP/Japan, US
institutes, GRA…)h Foresight, planning, implementation and evaluation & impact assessment
of policy-making still distinct procedures => linking of exercises and actors => increasing interest of policy-makers (also) in foresight?
h Convergence of future studies and technology foresight communities?
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
WP 6Vision Seminar
WP 1Preliminary studies
WP
2 W
eb S
ite&
Info
rmat
ion
WP 3 Identifying Barriers & Carriers
WP 5Scenario Workshop
WP 7S & T Roadmap Seminar
WP 8Action Seminar
WP 9World Hydrogen
EnergyConference
WP 10Reporting
WP 11Nordic Conference
WP 12Evaluation
WP 4 System
s Analysis&
T
echnological Assessm
entObjectives h To develop socio-technical scenarios for a future
hydrogen society and explore roads to commercialisation in production, transport, storage and utilisation
h To contribute as decision support for companies, research institutes and public authorities to order to prioritise R&D and to develop effective framework policies.
h To maintain and develop scientific and industrial networks
Technology ForesightHydrogen Energy Foresight in the Nordic Countries
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Tacit
knowledge
Tacit
knowledge
Explicit
Explicit
Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledge
Explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge
Fieldbuilding
Linkingexplicitknowledge
Dialogue
Learning by doing
Socialization Externalization
Internalization Combination
• Työryhmät• Paneelit• Projektiryhmät• Johto- ja tukiryhmät• Tutkijaverkostot• Kansalaisfoorumit
• Pilotointi• T&K-työ• Strategiatyö• Painotukset• Priorisoinnit• Voimavarojen
kohdennus
• Asiantuntijahaastattelut• Aivoriihet• Työpajat• Mind Mapping• Internet-pohjaiset Delphi
ym. kyselyt
• Ennakointiraportit• Teknologialistat, päätöspuut• Patentti- & julkaisuanalyysit• Skenaariot• SWOT-analyysi• Teknologiakartat• Riski- ja elinkaarianalyysit
(SECI-malli, ks. Nonaka, 1994; Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995)
SECI model
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Development of specific and integrated technologies (technology foresights, technology road maps)Development of economic and social environment of technological changeTechnology paradigms and development trendsTechnological change and industrial structures
Development of specific and integrated technologies (technology foresights, technology road maps)Development of economic and social environment of technological changeTechnology paradigms and development trendsTechnological change and industrial structures
Impact assessment of technological change (ex-ante / ex-post, constructive technology assessment)Co-evolution of technological, social and economic change; social shaping of technologyValue basis and ethical aspects of technological changeTechnology policy, institutions and regulation
Impact assessment of technological change (ex-ante / ex-post, constructive technology assessment)Co-evolution of technological, social and economic change; social shaping of technologyValue basis and ethical aspects of technological changeTechnology policy, institutions and regulation
Innovation processes and dynamics of innovation & innovation modelsR&D inputs and outputs of companiesR&D strategy and management in companies Impacts of globalisation
Innovation processes and dynamics of innovation & innovation modelsR&D inputs and outputs of companiesR&D strategy and management in companies Impacts of globalisation
SFINNO data basis: Maintenance, up-dating and complementingSFINNO based analyses on company, technology, industrial branch, and macro levels
SFINNO data basis: Maintenance, up-dating and complementingSFINNO based analyses on company, technology, industrial branch, and macro levels
Rationale (strategy) and performance (efficiency, effectiveness) of innovation policyCo-operation of private and public partners, complementarity between public sector to private sectorConditions providing innovation policyInnovation environments and innovation systems
Rationale (strategy) and performance (efficiency, effectiveness) of innovation policyCo-operation of private and public partners, complementarity between public sector to private sectorConditions providing innovation policyInnovation environments and innovation systems
1. National regional innovation policyRegional innovation strategies and policiesNational entrepreneurship and employment programs2. International cross-border innovation policyERA plan of EU, regional innovation policy of EU, e.g. ESR and innovation activities
1. National regional innovation policyRegional innovation strategies and policiesNational entrepreneurship and employment programs2. International cross-border innovation policyERA plan of EU, regional innovation policy of EU, e.g. ESR and innovation activities
Foresight of technological development
Impact assessment ofregional innovation
policy
Innovations and industrial renewalEmergence, diffusion, embedding, promotion,
innovation environment
Anticipatory technology assessment
Impact assessment of national & EU innovation policy
VTT Innovation Policy Studies
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
What (technology) foresight is about..
Foresight may ● improve understanding of impacts of technologies and edge conditions ● support dialogue and strategic choices of alternative technological
development paths ● promote networking of experts, different audiences, citizens● contribute for future oriented insights and conditions for consensus ● support prioritization of R&D activities and R&D resource allocation ● many foresighted technologies have realisedComplicated because.. ● technological change is inherently uncertain ● innovations relate to information asymmetries between present and future ● innovation process is not only influenced by future uncertainties but also
generates uncertainties (Metcalfe 1995)
● Not mechanistic tool giving answers for future challenges, rather a tool to manage with future uncertainties in a systematic and diverse manner
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
What (technology) foresight is about..
● in Europe often intended to reach consensus about promising technologies, related priority setting and policy measures
● in Japan not for building consensus, direct influence on technology policy and priority setting rather limited (e.g. Shimoda 2003) –changingnow and in the future?
● context dependent – national, regional, economic, social, cultural ● history dependent - past innovation pattern and related policy are
indispensable elements for foresight of future innovation patterns ● regulation and socioeconomic problems matter, e.g. Kioto protocol
gives relatively precise framework conditions for future energy sources, ageing gives requirements to technology development, etc. ……hence, foresight may be somewhat “easier” in areas of regulation, standardization etc. than in areas of free market demand => towards (societal) demand oriented innovation policy
● social, ethical, sustainability, responsibility aspects in the future?
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Source: Blind et al. 2004
Types of regulations and their impacts on innovation
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Past, current and future in innovation research - towards integration?
… outlining the future development path on a basis of integrated analysis of the past, current and future...
t
... from past ...
…to foresight ...
… to present ...
Future oriented researchInnovation studies based on SFINNO database(”ex-post”)Impact assessment and evaluation studies (policies, programmes, institutions) on national and EU level
Embedding (”rooting”) of innovations and technologyassessmentImpact assessment and evaluation studies
Technology foresight (”ex-ante”)technology asessmentTechnology roadmapsTechnology barometer
EX POST POLICY EVALUATION
FUTURE ORIENTED POLICY STUDIES
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
SHORT TERM MID TERM LONG TERM
ECO
NO
MIC
IMPA
CTS
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ormore years
h Award/participant characteristics
h R&D partneringh Acceleration of R&Dh Innovative Technology
Development- Patents- Publications- Competitive Advance- Prototype products &
processes
h Commercial Activity- New Products- New Processes- Licensing
h Attraction of Capitalh Strategic Alliancesh Company Growth
h Broad national economic benefits - Return on investment
- Public- Private- Social
- Inter Industry Diffusion
- Increased GDP & taxbase
- Societal impacts
Total Economic Benefits
Benefitsto Awardees
Complete Projects
Post-Project Period
Announce Competition
Announce Award
Impact assessment: what we measure when
Source: U.S. ATP
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Conclusions of Sevilla WS
hRTD policies will be broadened to other policies hParticipatory foresight
VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES
Some conclusions
Challenges e.g.hDiscontinuity? “once in lifetime” exercises vs, permanent
“platforms”? hPast – current – future scheme in systemic policy making: foresight
of rationale / strategy, implementation, evaluation and impact assessment, performance improvement => towards common learning of actors
hMethodology: choices case by case according to goals and objectives of project/program; new combinations
Impacts and benefitsh indicators and measurement of (un)learning (cf. ESTO, ETEPS..)hFrom “bottom-up” culture towards more aware “top down” practicesPromotion of benchmarking hProblems largely common – benefits of benchmarkinghSufficient resources necessary condition for successful impacts (or
to see whether there are impacts!)hWhat are most beneficial collaboration forms between national and
European activities?
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