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Fourth International Riga Family Forum
Igor Beloborodov (Russia)
PhD in Sociology,Director of Demographic research Institute
(Moscow)
Demographics in a context of statehood and nation
Demographic Instability
Replacement level = 2.1 children born per woman
Total Fertility Rate = 1,4 children
in Eastern Europe born per woman
The birth rate in Eastern Europe is 1.5 times lower than need for the replacement of generations
World Fertility, 1990–2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Africa America Asia Europe Mediterran Oceania
1990 2000 2008
Tunisia
Total Fertility Rate
2.02
1.55China
Morocco 2.19
Iran
Non-Europeancountries
1.87
Azerbaijan 1,92
South Korea 1,23
Europeancountries
Global fertility decline
1.65
Total Fertility Rate
2.01
2.08
1.78
Belgium
Ireland
France
Netherlands
United Kingdom 1.91
Latvia 1,33
With a low birth rate the population is
shrinking twice in 25-30 years
Government views on the level of fertility
1976 16
The number of countries that viewed their fertility levels as too low
Year Number ofCounties
1986
1996
2001
2009
22
28
34
47
Government views on the level of fertility
1976 55
The number of countries that viewed their fertility levels as too high
Year Number ofCounties
1986
1996
2001
2009
67
87
85
73
01234
5678
Алекс
андр
II
Никола
й II
Стали
н
Брежне
в
Горба
чев
Елици
н
Путин
Мед
веде
в
Число детей у российских лидеров
No kids, no problem?
Международный Валютный Фонд: долголетие – это риск…
● Увеличение продолжительности жизни связано с финансовыми издержками
● Если средняя продолжительность жизни возрастет к 2050 году на 3 года больше, чем ожидается в настоящее время, и без того огромные издержки, связанные со старением населения, повысятся на 50 процентов.
● Для нейтрализации финансовых последствий риска долгожительства необходимо то или иное сочетание повышения пенсионного возраста (законодательного или добровольного), увеличения взносов в пенсионные планы и уменьшения размера выплат
Low Fertility and Pension Reform2010-2012
France
Latvia
Ukraine
Italy
Germany
Spain
The retirement age was raised TFR
2,0
1,15
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,4
Going to raise the retirement age
Moldova
Belgium
Austria
Greece
Netherlands
Sweden
TFR
1,3
1,8
1,5
1,5
1,75
1,9
With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift. In this piece, we argue that this shift is set to continue. By 2050, the collective size of the economies we currently deem 'emerging' will have increased five-fold and will be larger than the developed world. And 19 of the 30 largest economies will be from the emerging world. At the same time, there will be a marked decline in the economic might – and potentially the political clout – of many small population, ageing, rich economies in Europe.
Demographic challenges
Age structure comparison in different countries
Saudi Arabia
65+ years
0-14 years
Egypt
65+ years
0-14 years
Israel
65+ years
0-14 years
Japan
65+ years
0-14 years
Poland
0-14 years
65+ years
Russia
0-14 years
65+ years
Germany
0-14 years
65+ years
Venezuela
0-14 years
65+ years
Change in working population between 2010 and 2050
Демографическое оружие
К 2050 г. демографические потери Германии составят 8 млн.
человек
К 2050 г. прирост населения в Индонезии составит 54 млн.
человек
THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION
Children – are not the problem,Children – are the solution(!)
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