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CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other intended recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Gartner's Top Predictions for 2018 & Beyond:
Pace Yourself for Sanity's Sake
Stephen Lefebvre
1 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
The Next Big Thing …
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The Next Big Thing …
… Is Making the Last Three
Next Big Things Work Right.
#GartnerSYM3 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
1950
AI
1949
Digital Computers
1941
Information Explosion
#GartnerSYM4 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
1998
Dot.Com
1999
Web 2.0
1993
eCommerce
1991
The Web
1985
Client/Server
1977
PCs
1997
eBusiness
5 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2010
Digital Marketing
2008
Blockchain
2001
Big Data
2006
Cloud Computing
Mobile Computing
2003
Social
2011
Digital Business
2013
Machine learning
2014
Bimodal
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2014
Bimodal
IoT
?
The Singularity
2030
Quantum Computing
2016
Micro Services
Serverless
2015
Algorithmic Business
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Top 10 Strategic Predictions for 2018 and Beyond
2021
30%Visual and Voice
Search Drive
Commerce Revenue
2020 202020222020
20202020
5 of 7 Digital
Giants Self-Disrupt
2022
50%Consuming More False Information
Than True
20212021
Search Disruption Blockchain AI
AI Talent AI
Trust
IOT Security
1 BillionCryptocurrency
Value Created
in Banking
Real or
Fake?"Counterfeit Reality"
40%IT Versatility With People-Centric
Roles
50%Bot Development Over Mobile App
Development
2.3M Net New Jobs
Versus 1.8M
Eliminated
HalfIoT Security Spend
on Remediation
95%New Products
Contain IoT
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Goal Start Listen Vary
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Three Things to Consider …
#GartnerSYM10 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Generate Revenue and Value
Speed of Change
Trust in Information
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Meeting Goals for
Increasing Revenue
and Value Will Rely
Heavily on Re-engaging
People and Businesses
Through Their Use of
Technology.
Consider This …
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By 2019, more than half of all mobile searches will bevoice or visual searches — mobile visual searches accounting for 20%.
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By 2021, early adopter brands that redesign their websites to support visual- and voice-search will increase digital commerce revenue by 30%.1
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Increase Customer Engagement.
Find Social Starting Points.
Voice/Visual Versus Text Search.
Consumable Brands.
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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, content management systems expose voice/visual tags and metadata.Analysis by: Mike McGuire and Charles S. Golvin
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By 2020, 5 of the Top 7 digital giants will willfully "self-disrupt" to create their next leadership opportunity.2
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Continuous Innovation.
Change Existing Markets.
Scale Through Quantity, Variety and Innovation.
Learn From — Don't Become the Giants.
#GartnerSYM18 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Near-Term Flag:By 2019, Virtual Personal Assistant (VPAs) will exist two per kitchenAnalysis by: Daryl C. Plummer
#GartnerSYM19 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Incumbency is not a guarantee of success.
Customers' expectationsare changing.
Competition is coming from unexpected places.
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By YE20, the banking industry will derive 1 billion dollars of business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies.3
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Cryptocurrency Momentum.
First-Mover Advantage.
5K Cryptocurrency Exchanges and 700 DigitalCash Variants.
Banking Industry Legitimizes Cryptocurrencies.
22 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Near-Term Flag:By YE18, formal investment regulationswill be available for trading cryptocurrencies.Analysis by: Fabio Chesini, John Lovelock, David Furlonger and Dale Kutnick
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Through 2023, only 10% of enterprises will achieveany radical transformation with blockchain technologies
Reality Check
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Trust in Information Will
Depend on Who You
CHOOSE to LISTEN to
Rather Than on Validity
of Data Sources
Consider This …
#GartnerSYM25 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Counterfeit RealityGartner defines "Counterfeit Reality" as the digital creation of images, video, documents, or sounds that
are convincingly realistic representations of things that never occurred or never existed exactly as represented.
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By 2022, the majority of individuals in mature economies will consume more false information than true information.4
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Understand the Appetite for Fake Information.
Confirmation Bias.
Trust Until Distrust or Distrust Until Trust.
Neutral Providers Being Subverted.
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Near-Term Flag:Through 2019, several attempts are madeto detect and label untrue information.Analysis by: Magnus Revang and Whit Andrews
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AI Will Be at the
Heart of Our Most
Trusted Sources
of Truth.
#GartnerSYM30 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Real or Fake?
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Through 2021, AI-driven creation of "Counterfeit Reality," or fake, contentwill outpace AI's ability to detect it, fomenting digital distrust.5
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Detect What Is Created.
Detection is Harder than Creation.
Track Social Giants and University Progress.
Over 90% of Top Movie Releases De-aged Actors.
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Near-Term Flag:By 2018, there will be a tenfold increase in commercial projects to detect fake news.Analysis by: Daryl C. Plummer and David McCoy
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Who Will You Talk To?By 2020, the average person will have more conversations with bots than with their spouse.
Remember last year...
#GartnerSYM35 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
By 2021, more than 50% of enterprises spend more per annum on bots and chatbot creation than traditional mobile app development.6
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Move Beyond Chatbot Exploration.
52% Investigating Chatbots.
Chatbots Are the Face of AI.
Mobile Development Spend Has Decreased.
#GartnerSYM37 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Near-Term Flag:By YE18, a handful of transformative botswill emerge that highlight their potential.Analysis by: Adrian Leow
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Consider This …
Speed of Change
Will Require Variability
of Skills and Capabilities
to Address Rising
Challenges
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Multiple Roles in IT Staff
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By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business-, rather than technology-related. 7
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Versatile IT Leadership and Management.
Scale Through Diversity.
Rotate Multiple Roles.
IT-Business Skills Gap.
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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, IT technical specialist hires will fall by more than 5%. Analysis by: Hank Marquis
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In 2020, AI becomes a positive net job motivator; creating 2.3M jobs while only eliminating 1.8M jobs.8
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Job Growth.
AI Fears of Job Elimination.
Jobs Impact Varies by Industry.
Net Job Change Is Key.
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… is controlling our fear of the path ahead
A necessary part of keeping pace …
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By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95%of electronics for new product designs. 9
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Pervasive IoT.
Prices Dropping.
Commercial and Industrial IoT Experiments.
8.4 Billion Connected Things in Use Today.
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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, smartphone IoT activationwill emerge.Analysis by: Alfonso Velosa and Martin Reynolds
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Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than protection. 10
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Understand Cost of Remediation.
IoT Security Postures.
Security Spend Versus Safety Recalls.
IoT Growth Outpacing Skills.
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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, IoT security incidents will make the nightly news.Analysis by: Earl Perkins
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Goal Start Listen Vary
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