‘Global warming is inevitable; we should therefore concentrate our efforts on accommodating its...

‘Global warming is inevitable; we should therefore concentrate our efforts on accommodating its effects’.

Comment.

Ryan Jarriel, Juan Mattioli, Tom Fryer

Overview

• Main conflict over project statement• Global warming’s relationship to climate change• Ways of answering our project statement– Agreement– Disagreement

• Mitigation versus Adaption– Strategies– Consequences

• Conclusion

Central Conflict

• Different viewpoints of agreement– We are already too late to prevent climate change– A moral rather than an economic issue

• The potential benefits outweigh the known costs• Monetization problem: a lot of costs of continuing current trends don’t

have a monetary value

• Different viewpoints of disagreement– Doesn’t believe in global warming– Doesn’t believe immediate response is necessary– Believes the planet can handle our global warming– NIMBY

Global Warming

• The Greenhouse Effect– Greenhouse Gases• Water vapor, ,

• Defining Climate Change

CO2

NH4,NOX ,O3,&CFCs

“A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to

natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”

- UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Global Warming

Scientific Fact vs. Uncertainty

Known

• Greenhouse effect governs global temperature

• The risks of consequences

Unknown

• How much warming?

• Timescale of effects

Agrees with the statement

• Indicators of climate change(a) 10 hottest years on record

Agrees with Statement

(b) Ice Core Drilling• concentration relation to temperature

CO2

Agrees with Statement

Hurricane Katrina failure• Evacuation delay• The poor suffer first• Twisted values

– Costs• $105 billion for repairs and reconstruction• $41.1 billion for the insurance industry• Oil production loss• 1,836 deaths

Agrees with the statement

• Problems with a passive approach– Population Redistribution: Marshall Islands– Nonmonetary: Loss of biodiversity

Opposes the statement

• Global cooling is too expensive• Unfair distribution of cost– China & India problem

• Scaremongering on the effects– Hurricane Katrina– Exaggerated consequences

Mitigation

• Definition: The attempt to reduce the potential effects of global warming by altering mankind’s behaviour in such a way that reduces our contribution to rising global temperatures.

• Risk-minimization approach– Underlying concern: do we have the resources?

Mitigation

• Risk-Minimization– Justifying expenditures as insurance

Low or certain probability (x) Catastrophic consequences (=) Major risk to society

Mitigation

• A shift in the status quo– Incentive policies– Cost of sustainability

• Side Benefits– Economic: Energy services– Environmental: Urban air pollution, acid rain– Social: Land reform, reforestation

Mitigation

– Overlapping cost– “Luxury fever”– Scarcity of rare earth

metals

• Un-sustainability & Global Warming

iPad versus iPad 2

Adaption

• Definition: Reducing the vulnerability of natural and human systems in order to reduce the potential impact that climate change has on us

• Wait-and-see approach– Underlying concern: the cost of preventing what?

• Global temperatures & world wealth

Adaption

• Can potentially take extreme forms• Stern Report (2006) - £3,680,000,000,000

Adaption

• Runaway Greenhouse Effect

Adaption/Mitigation

• Costs of mitigation = immediate• Costs of adaptation = long term• Costs of mitigation = calculated• Costs of adaptation = speculative

Developing economies see it differently

Conclusions

• Mitigation > Adaption• Gradual changes to industry– Policy changes & consumer preference• Agriculture• Automotive• Water systems

– Brownfield land example• Previously used derelict or contaminated land• 60% of new developments on brownfield by 2008

Conclusions

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.”

– Sir Winston ChurchillNov 12, 1936