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An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments – the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling
and Choice Experiments – the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply
Cornelia Ohl*, Jürgen Meyerhoff#
* Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig
# Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin)
Grant No01UN0601A, B
Overview
1. The Project
2. First Results
3. Outlook
The Project: Background
Impacts on Nature
CO2-emmissions and
running out of resources
Global Climate Change
Not in my backyard
po
sitiv
e
Windenergyn
eg
ativ
e
The Project: Goals
• Quantifying externalities of wind energy supply with the help of Choice Experiments (CE) and an Ecological-Economic Modelling (EEM) procedure.
• Identification, Evaluation and Visualisation of alternative land use options.
• Support site selection for the installation of wind power plants
The Project: Modelling procedure
Data on:
Wind speed,
Impacts on nature (esp. collision risk red kite) and humans (noise, shadow etc.).
3 representative wind mills(2MW, 3 MW, 6 MW)
For each technology calcula-tion of: energy output, land consumption, collision risk red kite etc.
Display of GIS – Maps Visualisation of e.g. Energy output (here: classified according to German EEG)
(1km grids)red – low energy outputgreen - high energy output
The Project: Identification of sites
Red: Suitable sites from a nature conservation point of view
Grey: Sites elected by regional planning bodies
Green: Potential sites for a specific wind mill erection
The Project: Choice Experiments• Characteristics of wind energy production are defined as
attributes of environmental changes
• Focus is on: – Height of the turbines – Seize of a wind farm– Impacts on local wildlife (collision risk red kite)– Distance to settlement areas – Cost of allocation patterns (surcharge monthly power bill)
• Setting options presented to German public
• Survey includes statements concerning attitudes toward wind power generation, etc. and Choice Experiments– Two representative studies (West Saxony; Northern Hesse) – Nationwide online-survey (Accessible: June to July 2008)
First Results: Online-Survey Presentation of Attributes and levels
Attributes Levels
Size of the wind farm large (16 to 18 mills), medium (10 to 12 mills), small (4 to 6 mills)
Height of the wind milll 110 meter, 150 meter, 200 meter
Local nature impact small, medium, large
Minimum distance to village/town
750 meter, 1.100 meter, 1.500 meter
Surcharge to power bill per month
€ 0 / € 1 / € 2,5 / € 4 / € 6
Note: underlined attribute levels describe programme A (constant least cost scenario)
First Results: Online-Survey Self selection bias
• Respondents were gained through press releases and announcements on various web pages
• Thus, sample is not representative for German population, e.g.:– only 20% women in sample (nationwide
around 51%)– 44% of respondents buy green energy
(nationwide around 5%)
First Results: Online-Survey Consistency of choices
Programme A Programme B Programme C
Size of the wind farm large farms small farms large farms
Height of the wind mill 200 Meter 110 Meter 110 Meter
Local nature impact medium low medium
Minimum distance to village/town
750 Meter 1.100 Meter 1.500 Meter
Surcharge to power bill per month
€ 0 € 6,- € 1,-
Each respondent was presented 4 choice cards during interview plus a fifth card with a dominant alternative
Programm A presents status quo for wind power production in 2020
First Results: Online-Survey Choice of dominant alternative• Respondents were randomly presented one of two
choice cards with a dominant alternative, i.e., all attributes were at least as good as in the other alternative and at least one was better
DomAlt1Programm C dominates B
DomAlt2Programm B dominates C
Programm A(Status quo 2020)
624 / 62.4 % 623 / 62.5%
Programm B 39 / 3.9 % 331 / 32.7%
Programm C 337 / 33.7% 48 / 4.8 %
First Results: Online-Survey Effect of attribut level - Conditional logit
prei -.1381398 .0113599 -12.16 0.000 -.1604049 -.1158748 Ab_150 .0483705 .0274669 1.76 0.078 -.0054636 .1022046 Ab_110 .0842059 .0274698 3.07 0.002 .0303661 .1380457 Nathigh -.9416609 .03483 -27.04 0.000 -1.009927 -.8733953 Natlow .7163201 .0274705 26.08 0.000 .6624789 .7701613 Hei_150 -.0554923 .0278145 -2.00 0.046 -.1100077 -.0009769 Hei_110 -.2331647 .0292514 -7.97 0.000 -.2904965 -.1758329 WPsma -.0785838 .0279784 -2.81 0.005 -.1334205 -.023747 WPmid .1018578 .0288742 3.53 0.000 .0452654 .1584502 ASCSQ .2338557 .0681016 3.43 0.001 .1003789 .3673325 choice Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
Log likelihood = -7349.8337 Pseudo R2 = 0.1633 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 LR chi2(10) = 2869.34Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression Number of obs = 23988
• Apart from “Ab_150” all variables are significant at 5% level
• Apart from “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” signs are as expected, e.g., price: “prei” is negative
• Negative sign for “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” indicates that people do not prefer a move from wind mills of 200 meter height to smaller ones
First Results: Online-Survey Implicit prices based on CL
/attribute price
• Implicit price (IP) indicates WTP for movement from one attribute level to another
• IP is given by:
WPmid 0.74 (0.32 / 1.16)
WPsma -0.57 (-0.98 / -0.16)
Hei_110 -1.69 (-2.19 / -1.19)
Hei_150 -0.40 (-0.79 / -0.01)
Natlow 5.18 (4.29 / 6.07)
Nathigh -6.82 (-7.98 / -5.65)
Ab_1100 0.61 (0.21 / 1.01)
Ab_1500 0.35 (-0.04 / 0.74)
Outlook: Evaluation of Sites Integration of Survey Results in the EE-Model Goal: Sustainable Site Selection
Natur impactgreen = low
Energy outputgreen = high
Social impactgreen = low
S e a r c h f o r c o m p r o m i s e !
Outlook: Site Selection with MULBOCompromise 1: Equality of goals
Green: Potential sites for wind power generation as selected by MULBO
Blue:Sites selected by regional planning bodies
Red:Wind mill erection (Typ I) not allowed by legislation
Thank you for attention!
Websites: http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=14638
http://www.landschaftsoekonomie.tu-berlin.de/8359.html
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