Green Energy in the Golden Land: Chris Greacen a vision ... · PDF fileChris Greacen Upscaling...

Chris Greacen

Upscaling Mini-Grid Workshop

Nairobi, Kenya

May 24, 2016

Green Energy in the Golden Land:a vision for

clean electricity sector in Myanmar

Chris Greacen, Ph.D.

A Myanmar electricity vision

Energy access for all

Minimal social and environmental impacts from electricity generation

Reliable

Affordable

Contributes to an economy based on Myanmar’s deep natural beauty and cultural richness

Slide 2

Resources can be marshalled

Technical assistance

Technology

Finance

Slide 3

Overview

Technology

• Most global investment in electricity generation is in renewables

• Renewables potentially more affordable than some conventional options being suggested for Myanmar

• Renewables can play important role in rural electrification

Financing

• Financing particularly available for climate-friendly energy

Slide 4

Renewables share of global electricity

• Renewables accounted 28.9% of global power generation capacity and 23.7%of global electricity demand

• Renewables made up for 60% of net additions to global power capacity• Total RE power capacity: 1,849 GW, an increase of almost 9% over 2014

6

TECHNOLOGY

Slide 7

Insulate roofs to

keep cool in

T-5

Energy Efficiency

1.4 to 4US cents per kWh

Source: The World Bank, Impact of Energy Conservation, DSM and Renewable Energy Generation on EGAT’s PDP, 2005

California Advancing Energy Efficiency

Pacific Northwest in USA: Energy efficiency to meet over 60% of new demand, renewables most of rest

Sixth Plan Resource Portfolio

10

2013 2020 2030

Binding commitments to renewables

20%33%

50%

11

The World’s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant

Ivanpah Solar Thermal Project – 370 MW - San Bernardino County, CA

Desert Sunlight Solar Project - 550 MW - Riverside County, CA

World’s Largest Thin Film Solar PV Project…

World’s Largest Wind Project

Alta Wind Energy Center – 1.55 GW - Kern County, California

Solar in Thailand

Over 2.5 GW as of 2015

Slide 15

Solar PV

Capacity added: +50 GW

Total capacity:

227 GW

Annual PV market in 2015 was nearly 10 times the world’s cumulative solar PV capacity of a decade earlier

Myanmar

installed

capacity all

power plants

4.6 GW

Low solar bid prices (2013-2016)

Slide 17

800 MW solar plant in Dubai

US 2.99 cents per kWh

Expected natural gas based generation

cost in Myanmar (105 kyat/kWh = 8.8

US cents) (Deloitte, 2016)

Solar PV,

unsolicited

bid ACO

US 13

cents/kWh

Zambia solar PV bidding winner

25 year fixed price US 6.02 cents/kWh50 MW project. World Bank Scaling Solar program

Solar farm lead time

Pre-construction

• Site selection

• Resource evaluation

• Interconnection

• Permitting

• PPA negotiation

Construction

• Module supply agreement

• Constructing solar farm

6 to 36 months

3 to 12

months

Thai electric load profile

Slide 19

Solar output

Wind power in Thailand

235 MW as of May 2015

Cost of production – as low as 6 US cents/kWh

Wind Power

Wind power was the leading source of new power generating capacity in Europe and the United States in 2015, and the second largest in China

Wind power is playing a major role in meeting electricity demand in an increasing number of countries, e.g.:

➜ Denmark: 42% of demand

➜ Uruguay: 15.5%

Wind potential, Myanmar (?)

MOA for 30MW wind project (Three Gorges Corporation) in Ayeyarwady Region

>3000 MW more potential according to developer

Source:

http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/business/19343-moep-

signs-first-wind-power-deal.html

Biomass

Slide 23

Sugar cane

Rice husk

Rubber wood

Thailand: 3266 MW

Slide 24

Small hydro

Mwenga 4 MW hydroTanzania800 households in 15 villages (expanding to 4000) & sells to the grid

3MW Nam Khun, Kyaing Tong Kyi Thien Family Co. & Kyaing Tong Energy Co., Ltd.

Myanmar Small Hydro potential

Some 100 projects < 1 MW identified

Many more exist, as yet unidentified…

Slide 26

Hydro flooding impact: big versus small

Source: Natel Energy

28

Royal Htoo Linn Manufacturing Co., Ltd

Sittwe,Rakhine State

Myaing village hydro

29

•Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand

•Built by government & community

•40 kW

•Used to be off-grid;

•Making arrangements to sell electricity to grid

Large Plants

Customers

Mini-Grid

Customers

NationalGrid

Small Power Producer

M

M

M

Key: = power from utility = power from SPP = meterM

M

M

M

Before the grid arrives

31

Allow interconnection of mini-grids

32

$

Small Power Producer (SPP) regulations

Thai “Very Small Power Producer” documents : www.eppo.go.th/power/vspp-eng/index.html

Tanzania “Small Power Producer” documents: www.ewura.go.tz/sppselectricity.html

FINANCING

Financing

grants

equity

debt

guarantees

insurance

results-based financing

carbon financing

Slide 35

Renewable energy funds

Slide 36

Uganda GETFiTGlobal Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs

Uganda utility REFiT

Donors:

• Norway, Germany, UK and EU

• pay GETFiT premium

• Provide risk guarantees

• Provide technical assistance

Slide 37

Uganda GETFiT

Results:

• Leverage $400 million private financing

• Up to 20 projects 170 MW

Slide 38

“The U.S. and India struck a deal Tuesday to finance as much as $1 billion in solar energy projects”

Slide 39

Infra Capital Myanmar

Slide 40

Funded by UK Department for International Development (UKAid)

Purpose: de-risk sustainable infrastructure

Micro-finance

Slide 41

ACTION ITEMS

Action item: Convene a dream team

Put in place dream team to advise on sustainable energy transition (???)

• Passionate, creative, scientific-minded Myanmar leaders

• Unbiased international advisors

Their job: figure out how to get the job done

• Taking account of intuitional realities in Myanmar

• Leveraging domestic and international opportunities

Slide 43

Inspiration: Skunk Works

A skunkworks project is a project developed by a small and loosely structured group of people who research and develop a project primarily for the sake of radical innovation.

Lockheed P-80A Macintosh computer

World Wildlife Fund (WWF)Myanmar sustainable energy scenario

Slide 45

Action item: Tell the world

Issue clean energy directive

• State clearly “cardinal principal” to develop electricity sector prioritizing energy efficiency and renewable energy

Slide 46

Action items: Build regulatory framework

Develop and resource strong regulatory authority with mandate and independent funding

• Purpose: fair policing of sector to ensure consumers benefit

Develop framework for private sector participation in renewable energy generation

• Streamlined interconnection and feed-in tariffs for renewable energy < 10 MW

• Competitive bidding for solar & wind > 10 MW (lower prices than non-solicited proposals)

Slide 47

Action item: Energy efficiency utility

Develop fully-resourced energy efficiency utility

• Use funds from sales of electricity to implement a wide range of energy savings programs and measures

• Residential

• Commercial

• Industrial

Slide 48

Action item: Transmission and distribution foundation for success

Fix key transmission and distribution problems

• Capacitors to address power factor problems

• Replace undersized conductors, transformers

• Implement ‘smart grid’ to monitor and control, implement distributed generation

Slide 49

Action item: Education

Train Myanmar youth on clean energy

• Build practical renewable energy training into practical engineering curriculum in:

• Universities

• Technical colleges

• Vocational training centers

• Secondary school

• Primary school

Slide 50

Summary

Energy efficiency & renewables are affordable (and often lowest cost option)

Technical assistance widely available

Financing widely available

Create dream-team

Tell the world

Regulatory framework

Energy efficiency utility

Transmission and distribution system smart grid

Slide 51

Thank you

What do you think?

chrisgreacen@gmail.com