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Chris Greacen
Upscaling Mini-Grid Workshop
Nairobi, Kenya
May 24, 2016
Green Energy in the Golden Land:a vision for
clean electricity sector in Myanmar
Chris Greacen, Ph.D.
A Myanmar electricity vision
Energy access for all
Minimal social and environmental impacts from electricity generation
Reliable
Affordable
Contributes to an economy based on Myanmar’s deep natural beauty and cultural richness
Slide 2
Resources can be marshalled
Technical assistance
Technology
Finance
Slide 3
Overview
Technology
• Most global investment in electricity generation is in renewables
• Renewables potentially more affordable than some conventional options being suggested for Myanmar
• Renewables can play important role in rural electrification
Financing
• Financing particularly available for climate-friendly energy
Slide 4
Renewables share of global electricity
• Renewables accounted 28.9% of global power generation capacity and 23.7%of global electricity demand
• Renewables made up for 60% of net additions to global power capacity• Total RE power capacity: 1,849 GW, an increase of almost 9% over 2014
6
TECHNOLOGY
Slide 7
Insulate roofs to
keep cool in
T-5
Energy Efficiency
1.4 to 4US cents per kWh
Source: The World Bank, Impact of Energy Conservation, DSM and Renewable Energy Generation on EGAT’s PDP, 2005
California Advancing Energy Efficiency
Pacific Northwest in USA: Energy efficiency to meet over 60% of new demand, renewables most of rest
Sixth Plan Resource Portfolio
10
2013 2020 2030
Binding commitments to renewables
20%33%
50%
11
The World’s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant
Ivanpah Solar Thermal Project – 370 MW - San Bernardino County, CA
Desert Sunlight Solar Project - 550 MW - Riverside County, CA
World’s Largest Thin Film Solar PV Project…
World’s Largest Wind Project
Alta Wind Energy Center – 1.55 GW - Kern County, California
Solar in Thailand
Over 2.5 GW as of 2015
Slide 15
Solar PV
Capacity added: +50 GW
Total capacity:
227 GW
Annual PV market in 2015 was nearly 10 times the world’s cumulative solar PV capacity of a decade earlier
Myanmar
installed
capacity all
power plants
4.6 GW
Low solar bid prices (2013-2016)
Slide 17
800 MW solar plant in Dubai
US 2.99 cents per kWh
Expected natural gas based generation
cost in Myanmar (105 kyat/kWh = 8.8
US cents) (Deloitte, 2016)
Solar PV,
unsolicited
bid ACO
US 13
cents/kWh
Zambia solar PV bidding winner
25 year fixed price US 6.02 cents/kWh50 MW project. World Bank Scaling Solar program
Solar farm lead time
Pre-construction
• Site selection
• Resource evaluation
• Interconnection
• Permitting
• PPA negotiation
Construction
• Module supply agreement
• Constructing solar farm
6 to 36 months
3 to 12
months
Thai electric load profile
Slide 19
Solar output
Wind power in Thailand
235 MW as of May 2015
Cost of production – as low as 6 US cents/kWh
Wind Power
Wind power was the leading source of new power generating capacity in Europe and the United States in 2015, and the second largest in China
Wind power is playing a major role in meeting electricity demand in an increasing number of countries, e.g.:
➜ Denmark: 42% of demand
➜ Uruguay: 15.5%
Wind potential, Myanmar (?)
MOA for 30MW wind project (Three Gorges Corporation) in Ayeyarwady Region
>3000 MW more potential according to developer
Source:
http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/business/19343-moep-
signs-first-wind-power-deal.html
Biomass
Slide 23
Sugar cane
Rice husk
Rubber wood
Thailand: 3266 MW
Slide 24
Small hydro
Mwenga 4 MW hydroTanzania800 households in 15 villages (expanding to 4000) & sells to the grid
3MW Nam Khun, Kyaing Tong Kyi Thien Family Co. & Kyaing Tong Energy Co., Ltd.
Myanmar Small Hydro potential
Some 100 projects < 1 MW identified
Many more exist, as yet unidentified…
Slide 26
Hydro flooding impact: big versus small
Source: Natel Energy
28
Royal Htoo Linn Manufacturing Co., Ltd
Sittwe,Rakhine State
Myaing village hydro
29
•Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand
•Built by government & community
•40 kW
•Used to be off-grid;
•Making arrangements to sell electricity to grid
Large Plants
Customers
Mini-Grid
Customers
NationalGrid
Small Power Producer
M
M
M
Key: = power from utility = power from SPP = meterM
M
M
M
Before the grid arrives
31
Allow interconnection of mini-grids
32
$
Small Power Producer (SPP) regulations
Thai “Very Small Power Producer” documents : www.eppo.go.th/power/vspp-eng/index.html
Tanzania “Small Power Producer” documents: www.ewura.go.tz/sppselectricity.html
FINANCING
Financing
grants
equity
debt
guarantees
insurance
results-based financing
carbon financing
Slide 35
Renewable energy funds
Slide 36
Uganda GETFiTGlobal Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs
Uganda utility REFiT
Donors:
• Norway, Germany, UK and EU
• pay GETFiT premium
• Provide risk guarantees
• Provide technical assistance
Slide 37
Uganda GETFiT
Results:
• Leverage $400 million private financing
• Up to 20 projects 170 MW
Slide 38
“The U.S. and India struck a deal Tuesday to finance as much as $1 billion in solar energy projects”
Slide 39
Infra Capital Myanmar
Slide 40
Funded by UK Department for International Development (UKAid)
Purpose: de-risk sustainable infrastructure
Micro-finance
Slide 41
ACTION ITEMS
Action item: Convene a dream team
Put in place dream team to advise on sustainable energy transition (???)
• Passionate, creative, scientific-minded Myanmar leaders
• Unbiased international advisors
Their job: figure out how to get the job done
• Taking account of intuitional realities in Myanmar
• Leveraging domestic and international opportunities
Slide 43
Inspiration: Skunk Works
A skunkworks project is a project developed by a small and loosely structured group of people who research and develop a project primarily for the sake of radical innovation.
Lockheed P-80A Macintosh computer
World Wildlife Fund (WWF)Myanmar sustainable energy scenario
Slide 45
Action item: Tell the world
Issue clean energy directive
• State clearly “cardinal principal” to develop electricity sector prioritizing energy efficiency and renewable energy
Slide 46
Action items: Build regulatory framework
Develop and resource strong regulatory authority with mandate and independent funding
• Purpose: fair policing of sector to ensure consumers benefit
Develop framework for private sector participation in renewable energy generation
• Streamlined interconnection and feed-in tariffs for renewable energy < 10 MW
• Competitive bidding for solar & wind > 10 MW (lower prices than non-solicited proposals)
Slide 47
Action item: Energy efficiency utility
Develop fully-resourced energy efficiency utility
• Use funds from sales of electricity to implement a wide range of energy savings programs and measures
• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
Slide 48
Action item: Transmission and distribution foundation for success
Fix key transmission and distribution problems
• Capacitors to address power factor problems
• Replace undersized conductors, transformers
• Implement ‘smart grid’ to monitor and control, implement distributed generation
Slide 49
Action item: Education
Train Myanmar youth on clean energy
• Build practical renewable energy training into practical engineering curriculum in:
• Universities
• Technical colleges
• Vocational training centers
• Secondary school
• Primary school
Slide 50
Summary
Energy efficiency & renewables are affordable (and often lowest cost option)
Technical assistance widely available
Financing widely available
Create dream-team
Tell the world
Regulatory framework
Energy efficiency utility
Transmission and distribution system smart grid
Slide 51