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Environment
IPCC officials admit mistake over melting Himalayan
glaciers
The Himalayas. The row centres on the IPCCs 2007 report, which said 'glaciers in the
Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world.' Photograph: GettyRead by 43 people
Remove from timelineWednesday 20 January 2010
Senior members of the UN's climate science body admit a claim that Himalayan
glaciers could melt away by 2035 was unfounded
The UN's climate science body has admitted that a claim made in its 2007 report - that
Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 - was unfounded.
The admission today followed aNew Scientist article last weekthat revealed the source of theclaim made in the 2007 report by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) was
not peer-reviewed scientific literaturebut a media interview with a scientist conducted in 1999.Several senior scientists have now said the claim was unrealistic and that the large Himalayan
glaciers could not melt in a few decades.
In astatement (pdf), the IPCC said the paragraph "refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate
of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. In drafting the paragraph in
question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures,were not applied properly."
It added: "The IPCC regrets the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in thisinstance." But the statement calls for no action beyond stating a need for absolute adherence to
IPCC quality control processes. "We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of
performance," the statement said.
The IPCC says the broader conclusion of the report is unaffected: that glaciers have melted
significantly, that this will accelerate and affect the supply of water from major mountain ranges"where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives".
http://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=180444840287http://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=180444840287http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://apps.facebook.com/theguardian/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=1804448402877/30/2019 Himalayan Glaciers and Siachin..
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Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, vice-chair of the IPCC, added that the mistake did nothing to
undermine the large body of evidence that showed the climate was warming and that humanactivity was largely to blame. Hetold BBC News: "I don't see how one mistake in a 3,000-page
report can damage the credibility of the overall report. "
The Indian environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, said earlier in the week: "The [glaciers] areindeed receding and the rate is cause for great concern [but the claim is] not based on an iota
of scientific evidence."
TheIndian government criticised the IPCC's glaciers claim in Novemberat the launch of itsown
discussion paper, written by geologist Vijay Kumar Raina, which admitted that while someglaciers in the Himalayas were retreating, it was "nothing out of the ordinary. Nothing to suggest
as some have said that they will disappear."
At the time, the chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, dismissed the report as not peer-
reviewed and said: "With the greatest of respect this guy retired years ago and I find it totally
baffling that he comes out and throws out everything that has been established years ago."
Georg Kaser, an expert in tropical glaciology at the University of Innsbruck in Austria and a lead
author for the IPCC, said he had warned that the 2035 prediction was clearly wrong in 2006,months before the report was published. "This [date] is not just a little bit wrong, but far out of
any order of magnitude," he said.
"All the responsible people are aware of this weakness in the fourth assessment. All are aware of
the mistakes made," he said. "If it had not been the focus of so much public opinion, we would
have said 'we will do better next time'. It is clear now that working group II has to be
restructured."
The reports of the IPCC collate the work of thousands of scientists and are assessed through aprocess of peer-review and then approved by the 192 governments who are members of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its work is seen as the most comprehensive account
of global warming.
The chair of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, has made no personal comment on the glacier claim:
But yesterday, at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, heresponded to British newspaper articlescriticising his chairmanshipof the IPCC. "They can't attack the science so they attack the
chairman. But they won't sink me. I am theunsinkable Molly Brown. In fact, I will float much
higher," he told the Guardian.
The row centres on the IPCC's"fourth assessment" report in 2007, which said "glaciers in the
Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate
continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very highif the Earth keeps warming at the current rate." The claim appears in the full report, but not in the
more widely read "Summary for policymakers".
http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePage7/30/2019 Himalayan Glaciers and Siachin..
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The claim was attributed to a report by the campaign group WWF, but in the New Scientist
article, Guardian writer Fred Pearce noted that WWF had cited a 1999 interview in the magazinewith Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain as the source of the claim. Hasnain told the magazine last
week that "it is not proper for IPCC to include references from popular magazines or
newspapers".
Additional reporting: Ian Wylie
options
Nature Geoscience | Letter
Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in
the early twenty-first century
Julie Gardelle, Etienne Berthier
Nature Geoscience(2012)
Assessments of the state of health of Hindu-KushKarakoramHimalaya glaciers and theircontribution to regional hydrology and global sea-level rise suffer from a severe lack of
observations1. The globally averaged mass balance of glaciers and ice caps is negative1, 2, 3. An
anomalous gain of mass has been suggested for the Karakoram glaciers2,4,5,6
, but was not
confirmed by recent estimates of mass balance. Furthermore, numerous glacier surges in theregion that lead to changes in glacier length and velocity7,8,9,10,11complicate the interpretation
of the available observations. Here, we calculate the regional mass balance of glaciers in the
central Karakoram between 1999 and 2008, based on the difference between two digitalelevation models. We find a highly heterogeneous spatial pattern of changes in glacier elevation,which shows that ice thinning and ablation at high rates can occur on debris-covered glacier
tongues. The regional mass balance is just positive at +0.110.22myr1 water equivalent and inagreement with the observed reduction of river runoff that originates in this area12. Our
measurements confirm an anomalous mass balance in the Karakoram region and indicate that the
contribution of Karakoram glaciers to sea-level rise was 0.01mmyr1 for the period from 1999to 2008, 0.05mmyr1 lower than suggested before13.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#accesshttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#accesshttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref3http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref3http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref3http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref4http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref4http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref4http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref5http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref5http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref5http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref6http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref6http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref6http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref7http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref7http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref8http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref8http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref8http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref9http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref9http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref9http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref10http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref10http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref10http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref11http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref11http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref11http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref12http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref12http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref12http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref13http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref13http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref13http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref12http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref11http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref10http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref9http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref8http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref7http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref6http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref5http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref4http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref3http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#access7/30/2019 Himalayan Glaciers and Siachin..
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nvironment
IPCC officials admit mistake over melting Himalayan
glaciers
The Himalayas. The row centres on the IPCCs 2007 report, which said 'glaciers in theHimalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world.' Photograph: Getty
Read by 43 people
Remove from timelineWednesday 20 January 2010
Senior members of the UN's climate science body admit a claim that Himalayan
glaciers could melt away by 2035 was unfounded
The UN's climate science body has admitted that a claim made in its 2007 report - thatHimalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 - was unfounded.
The admission today followed aNew Scientist article last weekthat revealed the source of the
claim made in the 2007 report by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) wasnot peer-reviewed scientific literaturebut a media interview with a scientist conducted in 1999.
Several senior scientists have now said the claim was unrealistic and that the large Himalayan
glaciers could not melt in a few decades.
In astatement (pdf), the IPCC said the paragraph "refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate
of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. In drafting the paragraph in
question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures,were not applied properly."
It added: "The IPCC regrets the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in thisinstance." But the statement calls for no action beyond stating a need for absolute adherence to
IPCC quality control processes. "We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of
performance," the statement said.
The IPCC says the broader conclusion of the report is unaffected: that glaciers have melted
significantly, that this will accelerate and affect the supply of water from major mountain ranges
"where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives".
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, vice-chair of the IPCC, added that the mistake did nothing toundermine the large body of evidence that showed the climate was warming and that human
activity was largely to blame. Hetold BBC News: "I don't see how one mistake in a 3,000-page
report can damage the credibility of the overall report. "
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news7/30/2019 Himalayan Glaciers and Siachin..
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The Indian environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, said earlier in the week: "The [glaciers] are
indeed receding and the rate is cause for great concern [but the claim is] not based on an iotaof scientific evidence."
TheIndian government criticised the IPCC's glaciers claim in Novemberat the launch of itsown
discussion paper, written by geologist Vijay Kumar Raina, which admitted that while someglaciers in the Himalayas were retreating, it was "nothing out of the ordinary. Nothing to suggest
as some have said that they will disappear."
At the time, the chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, dismissed the report as not peer-
reviewed and said: "With the greatest of respect this guy retired years ago and I find it totallybaffling that he comes out and throws out everything that has been established years ago."
Georg Kaser, an expert in tropical glaciology at the University of Innsbruck in Austria and a leadauthor for the IPCC, said he had warned that the 2035 prediction was clearly wrong in 2006,
months before the report was published. "This [date] is not just a little bit wrong, but far out of
any order of magnitude," he said.
"All the responsible people are aware of this weakness in the fourth assessment. All are aware of
the mistakes made," he said. "If it had not been the focus of so much public opinion, we wouldhave said 'we will do better next time'. It is clear now that working group II has to be
restructured."
The reports of the IPCC collate the work of thousands of scientists and are assessed through a
process of peer-review and then approved by the 192 governments who are members of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its work is seen as the most comprehensive account
of global warming.
The chair of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, has made no personal comment on the glacier claim:But yesterday, at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, heresponded to British newspaper articles
criticising his chairmanshipof the IPCC. "They can't attack the science so they attack the
chairman. But they won't sink me. I am theunsinkable Molly Brown. In fact, I will float muchhigher," he told the Guardian.
The row centres on the IPCC's"fourth assessment" report in 2007, which said "glaciers in theHimalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate
continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high
if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate." The claim appears in the full report, but not in the
more widely read "Summary for policymakers".
The claim was attributed to a report by the campaign group WWF, but in the New Scientist
article, Guardian writer Fred Pearce noted that WWF had cited a 1999 interview in the magazinewith Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain as the source of the claim. Hasnain told the magazine last
week that "it is not proper for IPCC to include references from popular magazines or
newspapers".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciers7/30/2019 Himalayan Glaciers and Siachin..
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Additional reporting: Ian Wylie
Karakoram glaciers have grown over last decade, new
research shows
A part of the Karakoram mountain range reflected in a glacial lake. Photograph: DavidBathgate/Corbis
Read by 353 people
Remove from timeline
Sunday 15 April 2012
3D altitude maps captured by satellites show glaciers in part of the greater
Himalaya range are bucking the global trend of continued ice loss
The glaciers flowing between the towering peaks of the Karakoram range on the Pakistan-China
border have grown in size in the last decade, according to new research.
The impact of climate change on the ice in the greaterHimalaya range has been controversial
because of an unfounded claim by the United Nations' climate science panel over the rate of
melting in the region. However themelting of vast volumes of iceinto the sea in most other partsof the world has been clearly demonstrated. In March, scientists showed thatfar less ice was
being lost across the Himalayasthan had been estimated from sparse ground surveys on theremote slopes.
The new study shows that glaciers in one important part of the mountain range are growing. "We
provide a detailed glacier-scale evaluation of mass changes in the central Karakoram," said JulieGardelle, at CNRS-Universit Grenoble, who led theresearch published in Nature Geoscienceon
Sunday. "In our warming world, there are regions of the Earth where, for a few years or decades,
the atmosphere is not warming or is even cooling. So it is not really a big surprise that there aresome regions where the temperature is not rising and the Karakoram may be one of those."
The scientists used 3D altitude maps obtained from satellites in 2000 and 2008 to track the
changes in the glaciers. Prof Graham Cogley, of Trent University in Canada, who was not part ofthe research team, called the approach a "ground-breaking" advance.
"On most of the glaciers in the Karakoram it is simply not possible to be there," he said. "Theroads end well short of the glaciers, and it can take days to trek to them. If you reach that point in
spite of reluctant soldiers and eager terrorists, it might be physically impossible to get on to the
glacier, which will be extremely crevassed and dangerous. Granting agencies do not fork out forhelicopter time for this kind of activity. Yet."
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Global warming is causing the loss of more than 500bn tonnes a year of ice from the world's ice
caps and glaciers, but it is not yet understood why the Karakoram bucks that trend. "It seemsthat, by a quirk of the atmospheric general circulation that is not understood, more snow is being
delivered to the mountain range at present, and less heat," said Cogley. He added that the valleys
of the Karakoram are unusually steep sided, meaning that unpredictable snow avalanches add
more ice to the glaciers than elsewhere. On 7 April, scores of Pakistani soldiers were killed by anavalanche on the nearby Siachen glacier.
The global study published in March used gravity measurements by satellites which directly
measures changes in the mass of ice, but has a resolution of about 350km, whereas Gardelle's
work focused on one region with a resolution of 100m. Continuing controversy about meltingrates means "new independent assessments are eagerly needed," said Gardelle, who will now
apply her method to other parts of the Himalayas.
Prof Jonathan Bamber, at the University of Bristol, said Gardelle's research was consistent withglobal gravity work. But he cautioned: "Nine years is a very short period to draw strong
conclusions about trends in glaciers. If you are looking for a climate effect - as opposed to aweather effect - you usually take a 30-year period as a minimum, on the assumption that thisaverages out the interannual variability."
Cogley emphasised that, despite the relatively ice small growth seen the Karakoram, globalglacier and ice cap melting is continuing and contributing to rising sea levels. "The world
exhibits enormous variety, but that doesn't mean we cannot make valuable generalisations about
how it is changing," he said.
8 April 2012 Last updated at 04:18 GMT
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Kashmir avalanche: Up to 135 feared dead
on Siachen
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Kashmir profile Q&A: Kashmir dispute On the world's highest battlefield
The number of people feared dead in an avalanche in the disputed Kashmir region has risen to
135, the Pakistan army has said.
Spokesman Maj Gen Athar Abbas told the BBC 124 Pakistani soldiers and 11 civilians were
missing after 21m (70ft) of snow engulfed a military camp near the Siachen Glacier on Saturday.
He had earlier said that 100 soldiers and 11 civilians were missing.
Rescuers have yet to find any survivors.
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Maj Gen Abbas told the BBC's Orla Guerin, in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, that the
avalanche had covered an area of 1 sq km (0.39 sq m).
Sniffer dogs
The search was called off late on Saturday due to darkness and poor weather, but is set to resumeearly on Sunday.
Hundreds of troops, plus sniffer dogs and helicopters are involved in the rescue operation.
In a statement, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani expressed shock at the disaster, but
said it "in no way would undermine the high morale of soldiers and officers."
The camp, located 15,000ft (4,572 m) above sea level in Kashmir's Gayari district, near the
border with India, was engulfed by snow at around 06:00 local time (01:00 GMT).
Maj Gen Abbas earlier described the avalanche as "very massive".
He also warned it could take several days to complete the rescue operation, which was
unprecedented in scale for such a location, where temperatures can plunge to minus 70 Celsius.
'Prone to avalanches'
As of yet, there has been no communication with any of the missing soldiers, who were from the
Northern Light Infantry regiment, which is trained in mountain operations.
The region is prone to avalanches, the major general said, although they typically occur in
"forward bases" at higher altitude, where only 10 or 20 troops are located.
One officer who had been stationed at the base in 2003 said he could not "comprehend how an
avalanche can reach that place".
"It was supposed to be safe," he told the Associated Press.
A previous avalanche in the area killed 24 Pakistani troops in 2010 - believed to be the heaviestloss of life in such an incident until now.
Kashmir has been partitioned between India and Pakistan since 1947.
Failure to agree on the status of the territory by diplomatic means has twice brought India and
Pakistan to war.
The Siachen glacier is known as the world's highest battlefield, and soldiers have been deployedat elevations of up to 6,700m (22,000 feet).
However, more soldiers have died from the harsh weather conditions there than in combat.
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On the world's highest battlefield
By Renu Agal
BBC Hindi Service, Siachen
India appears to have ruled out making concessions to Pakistan over the
disputed Siachen glacier ahead of talks on Kashmir this week. We look
at what life is like for troops stationed there.
On top of the world's highest battlefield, the soldier's biggest foe is the
weather.
Bone-chilling winds whip the landscape and avalanches sweep soldiers into
30-foot-deep crevasses.
The harsh sun burns their skin and, combined with the thin air and sub-zero
temperatures, can induce acute depression.
Cold statistics tell you that more lives have been lost to the weather than to
the enemy since 1984, when the Indian army first occupied the Siachen
glacier.
Some 7,000 Indian soldiers are stationed on the disputed glacier - at 5,500
metres above sea level - bordering Pakistani and Indian-administered portions of Kashmir.
Pakistan has some 150 manned posts and about 3,500 soldiers there.
Ironically, Siachen means a land of wild roses but all you see here are some thorny bushes weathering the elements
hoping to bloom in April.
It is not easy for a journalist to endure the harsh terrain and the weather of the glacier.
As I walked along a rocky pathway with a grey icy massif on one side and a half frozen stream on the other, the 50-
metre trek felt like a mile-long jog. I was catching my breath after every sentence I uttered.
In front was a shrine in the memory of 'OP Baba'. Legend on the Indian side is that Om Prakash protected a post in
these icy heights single-handedly from Pakistani fire. No one knows what happened to him, but soldiers here feel
that if they have 'OP Baba's' blessings they will survive any situation.
'I am never tired'
Just a few steps away on the icy mountains a training session for soldiers was underway. There were 450 soldiers
present.
Rifleman Gyaltsen has been training soldiers here for the past year.
The weather is the soldier's
worst enemy
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"We tell them how to save someone from a crevasse, how to be aware of
crevasses and to cross them and what to do to save yourself from being
buried in an avalanche," he says.
I learnt from him that one way to save yourself from being buried in an
avalanche is to make swimming movements.
Most soldiers are posted on the higher ridges for just three months. So, the
Siachen battle school trains around 7,000 soldiers every year.
One of them, Anshuman Narain, is waiting for lunch after a long morning
session.
In the evening he has time to watch films and read his favourite books - "I
am never tired."
Other men, clad in white camouflage uniforms with their blood group written
on their coats, seem to share his energy.
Breathtaking
The journey to Siachen is as spectacular as the visit to the glacier.
We flew from Delhi in an army plane to the Thoise air base in Ladakh in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The journey offered us some breathtaking views of rugged mountains, jagged crevasses in the glaciers below, blade-
like mountain tops and tonnes of boulders which move slowly with the pace of the mammoth glacier.
The crew told us that the last village in Siachen area had just seven houses - beyond that there was only the army.
We saw the Nubra valley, the old Silk Route passing through the Karakoram ranges, and wondered how people
managed to survive, let alone trade in these parts.
We landed at Thoise and felt the cold mountain air - there is 30% less oxygen here than normal. We were given
heavy coats and woollen caps.
The soldiers here live in fibreglass huts with fibreglass toilets. There is an
officers' lounge and some labourers worked on planting saplings and helping
in maintaining the base.
A private carrier brings food and ration, kerosene and fuel for the troops.
From Thoise supplies are flown up by helicopters to around 16,000ft (4,876
metres) where over four-fifths of the Indian troops in Siachen are stationed.
There is a famous local saying, "The land is so barren and passes so high that
only the best of friends and fiercest of enemies come by.''
The dispute over Siachen, which began more than 20 years ago, is testimony
to this saying.
The view from the air is
breathtaking
Bitter fighting erupted atSiachen in 1989
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Environment
The Himalayas and nearby peaks have lost no ice in past 10
years, study shows
Hopar glacier inPakistan. Melting ice outside the two largest caps - Greenland and Antarctica - is much less than
previously estimated, the study has found. Photograph: Paula Bronstein/Getty Images
Read by 4,887 peopleRemove from timeline
Wednesday 8 February 2012
Meltwater from Asia's peaks is much less than previously estimated, but lead
scientist says the loss of ice caps and glaciers around the world remains a seriousconcern
Live Q&A: What does the Himalaya glacier study mean for climate change?
In pictures: the best images of the Earth from space
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The world's greatest snow-capped peaks, which run in a chain from the Himalayas to Tian Shan
on the border of China and Kyrgyzstan, have lost no ice over the last decade, new researchshows.
The discovery has stunned scientists, who had believed that around 50bn tonnes of meltwater
were being shed each year and not being replaced by new snowfall.
The study is the first to survey all the world's icecaps and glaciers and was made possible by theuse of satellite data. Overall, the contribution of melting ice outside the two largest caps
GreenlandandAntarcticais much less than previously estimated, with the lack of ice loss in
the Himalayas and the other high peaks of Asia responsible for most of the discrepancy.
Bristol University glaciologist Prof Jonathan Bamber, who was not part of the research team,
said: "The very unexpected result was the negligible mass loss from high mountain Asia, whichis not significantly different from zero."
The melting of Himalayan glaciers caused controversy in 2009 when a report from the UN'sIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mistakenly stated that they woulddisappear by
2035, instead of 2350. However, the scientist who led the new work is clear that while greater
uncertainty has been discovered in Asia's highest mountains, the melting of ice caps and glaciersaround the world remains a serious concern.
"Our results and those of everyone else show we are losing a huge amount of water into theoceans every year," said ProfJohn Wahrof the University of Colorado. "People should be just as
worried about the melting of the world's ice as they were before."
His team's study, published in thejournal Nature, concludes that between 443-629bn tonnes of
meltwater overall are added to the world's oceans each year. This is raising sea level by about1.5mm a year, the team reports, in addition to the 2mm a year caused byexpansion of thewarming ocean.
The scientists are careful to point out that lower-altitude glaciers in the Asian mountain rangessometimes dubbed the "third pole"aredefinitely melting. Satellite images andreportsconfirm
this. But over the study period from 2003-10 enough ice was added to the peaks to compensate.
The impact on predictions for futuresea level riseis yet to be fully studied but Bamber said:
"The projections for sea level rise by 2100 will not change by much, say 5cm or so, so we are
talking about a very small modification." Existing estimatesrange from 30cm to 1m.
Wahr warned that while crucial to a better understanding of ice melting, the eight years of data is
a relatively short time period and that variable monsoons mean year-to-year changes in ice massof hundreds of billions of tonnes. "It is awfully dangerous to take an eight-year record and
predict even the next eight years, let alone the next century," he said.
The reason for the radical reappraisal of ice melting in Asia is the different ways in which the
current and previous studies were conducted. Until now, estimates of meltwater loss for all the
http://blogs.reuters.com/environment/2011/01/21/greenland-ice-melt-sets-a-record-and-could-set-the-stage-for-sea-level-rise/http://blogs.reuters.com/environment/2011/01/21/greenland-ice-melt-sets-a-record-and-could-set-the-stage-for-sea-level-rise/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasahttp://www.bris.ac.uk/geography/research/bgc/http://www.bris.ac.uk/geography/research/bgc/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://cires.colorado.edu/people/wahr/http://cires.colorado.edu/people/wahr/http://cires.colorado.edu/people/wahr/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.htmlhttp://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/04/byers-himalaya-changing-landscapeshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/04/byers-himalaya-changing-landscapeshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/04/byers-himalaya-changing-landscapeshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/series/changing-himalayashttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/series/changing-himalayashttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/series/changing-himalayashttp://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htmhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htmhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htmhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagenhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagenhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagenhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagenhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htmhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/series/changing-himalayashttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/04/byers-himalaya-changing-landscapeshttp://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.htmlhttp://cires.colorado.edu/people/wahr/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.bris.ac.uk/geography/research/bgc/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasahttp://blogs.reuters.com/environment/2011/01/21/greenland-ice-melt-sets-a-record-and-could-set-the-stage-for-sea-level-rise/7/30/2019 Himalayan Glaciers and Siachin..
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world's 200,000 glaciers were based on extrapolations of data from a few hundred monitored on
the ground. Those glaciers at lower altitudes are much easier for scientists to get to and so weremore frequently included, but they were also more prone to melting.
The bias was particularly strong in Asia, said Wahr: "There extrapolation is really tough as only
a handful of lower-altitude glaciers are monitored and there are thousands there very high up."
The new study used apair of satellites, called Grace, which measure tiny changes in the Earth'sgravitational pull. When ice is lost, the gravitational pull weakens and is detected by the orbiting
spacecraft. "They fly at 500km, so they see everything," said Wahr, including the hard-to-reach,
high-altitude glaciers.
"I believe this data is the most reliable estimate of global glacier mass balance that has been
produced to date," said Bamber. He noted that 1.4 billion people depend on the rivers that flowfrom the Himalayas and Tibetan plateau: "That is a compelling reason to try to understand what
is happening there better."
He added: "The new data does not mean that concerns about climate change are overblown in
any way. It means there is a much larger uncertainty in high mountain Asia than we thought.
Taken globally all the observations of the Earth's icepermafrost, Arctic sea ice, snow coverand glaciersare going in the same direction."
Grace launched in 2002 and continues to monitor the planet, but it has passed its expectedmission span and its batteries are beginning to weaken. A replacement mission has been
approved by the US and German space agencies and could launch in 2016.
This article was amended on 9 February 2012. The original sub-heading read "Melting ice from
Asia's peaks is much less then previously estimated" as did the photo caption and text: "Meltingice outside the two largest caps - Greenland and Antarctica - is much less then previouslyestimated". These have all been corrected.
http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/Recommended