How can energy institutions mitigate for future shocks? · 2018-06-26 · Background •...

How can energy institutions

mitigate for future shocks?

Joni Karjalainen and Stephen Karekezi

University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre

Afrepren/FWD – Energy, Environment and Development for Africa

Energizing Futures – Sustainable Development and Energy in Transition

13–14 June 2018

Tampere, Finland

“Institutions often work as if the future ‘is there’

and they simply have to ‘go there’.”

(Poli 2017, 244)

Limitations of forecasting

• Forecasting methods for conventional energy planning may

work, if little future changes are expected

• We may claim that the exact opposite is true for many

African countries, few of whom have in the past had the

capacity to anticipate what could happen in the energy

sector in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.

The case study of Kenya

• As an example, East African countries, such as Kenya, did

not expect to discover oil or gas in the 2010s.

• The rapid emergence, fall in the price, and a growing

recognition of solar photovoltaics (PV), wind, storage

technologies, and modern biomass options were

anticipated only by a few policy-makers.

Research objectives

• Interest in explaining the uptake of renewable energy

technologies: what can be learned?

• Analysing the institutional prerequisites for a

growing uptake of renewable energy

(cf. Hancock et al. 2015) in

East African countries

Research questions

• What has been the role of institutions in the energy sector

of Kenya in introducing future-oriented solutions in the field

of energy access and renewable energy?

• What institutional expectations currently exist for the further

uptake of renewable energy technologies?

Kenya’s Power Sector before reform (before

year 2000)

Ministry Of Energy

Kenya Power Lighting

Company (KPLC)

End users

Imports

Diversifying the power sector

• Kenya has in recent years witnessed the

introduction of new institutions that have

(a) improved electricity access

(b) expedited the uptake of renewable energy

technologies; and

(c) is also planning to introduce new ones

• Establishment of Geothermal Development Corporation (GDC)

• Establishment of Rural Electrification Authority (REA)

• Establishment of the pay-as-you-go model

Historical case studies

Public

+

Private

10,914,5 16,1

23 2327

30

47

55

70,3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Acc

ess

to e

lect

ricity

Access to Electricity (% of Population)Rapid growth to 70.3% (KPLC, 2017)

Establishment of

REA

NB. Kenya Power Data: Kenya Power (KPLC) Annual Reports 2013/14-2016/17; World Bank 2016; UNESCO 2009

4.3

10.0 9.8 9.78.8 8.6

10.2

12.2 12.413.4

26.126.9 27.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Percentage

Year

Establishment of

Geothermal

Development

Corporation (GDC)

% Geothermal of Total National Installed Capacity

Data: Kenya Power (KPLC) Annual Reports 2002/03-2015/16NB. KenGen (Kenya Electricity Generation Company)

Safaricom/Mpesa/M-Kopa

Solar PV installed Capacity

1,23,9

78,712,3

17,89

25,4

31,6

54,9

61,7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Insta

lle

d C

ap

acit

y i

n M

Wp

Year

Establishment of

M-Kopa PAYG

model

NB. Safaricom Data: Hansen et al. (2014); Werner et al. (2015); Werner et al. (2017)

Draft Energy Bill 2015

• Proposes a Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy

Corporation to be established

Kenya’s Energy Sector in 2016

Key driver of energy planning processes is primarily cost

Energy planning in Kenya

Discussion

• Policy ideas need to have administrative and political

viability in addition to policy viability (Schmidt 2008; cf. Hall

1989; Katzenstein 1996; Barbier 2004; Cox 2001; Art 2006)

• Uncertainties & opportunities (Fuerth 2012; 2009; Poli

2017) How to govern the energy sector?

• Energy security analyses tend to omit anticipated changes in

the energy mix (on uptake of renewable energy, cf. Scholten

and Bosman 2016; O’Sullivan et al. 2017)

• Change should be understood beyond risk assessment also

in terms of the unpredictable (Aven 2013, 2015)

Possible enhancements of the planning process

to anticipate future developments or surprises

• What explains the success of these institutions in

promoting electricity access and the uptake of RE?

• Institutional theories

• Political and policy viability

• Role of platforms

• Anticipatory governance of technologies

• What alternative explanations might prevail?

(correlation – causality)

Thanks!Joni Karjalainen

Researcher

University of Turku

Finland Futures Research Centre

joni.karjalainen@utu.fi

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joni_Karjalainen

twitter.com/jonikarjalainen

Sustainable Development Futures Research Group sdfutures.fi

Great Electrification in Peer-to-Peer Society

ty.fi/greatelectrification and urly.fi/WDs

Additional slides (for our own use)

Futures workshop:

Presentations + 3 groups

Three working groups

1. Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Corporation and

the Renewable Energy Master Plan

2. Associations in the renewable energy industry and other

sectors (agro-industry, enterprise development, manufacturing,

real estate, etc.)

3. New Knowledge: Educational sector, Higher Education

Institutions (HEIs) and Research

Four assignments

1. What is the current situation? What surprises could be in the horizon?

2. How to harness the relationships: with the Ministry of Energy, proposed Renewable Energy Authority & other associations?

3. How to best contribute to innovation efforts? How to make Kenya’s renewable energy sector more resilient?

4. What is the contribution to widening energy access – and the scaling up of renewables?

Methodology and data

• Past developments - three historical case studies

• Annual Power Sector Reports

• Future case study

• Document analysis – Draft Energy Bill (2015)

• Content analysis – 2 h Futures Workshop

• 1 h group work discussions from 3 working groups

Background

• Perspectives of futures/uncertainty, governance and renewable

energy

• Futures workshop by Karjalainen/FFRC and Afrepren/FWD

Karekezi in Nairobi, Kenya in October 2017

• Karekezi provided data for four case studies.

• Abstract to FFRC Summer Conference 2018, Karekezi

commented

• Refined approach in skype conversations every 2 weeks (spring

2018)

*) AFREPREN/FWD - Energy, Environment and Development Network for Africa

Article manuscript – Table of contents

1. Introduction

2. Theoretical framework

2.1 Uncertainty

2.2 Anticipatory governance

2.3 Discursive institutionalism

3. Data

3.1 GDC

3.2 REA

3.3 PAYGO

3.4 Draft Energy Bill (2015): Section 42-52 on Renewable Energy and RuralElectrification Corporation, Futures workshop 17 Oct 2017: 3 working groups

4. Discussion

5. Conclusions

References

2 Theoretical framework/literature review

• Propose to combine three lenses:• Uncertainty AND/OR energy security

• Anticipatory governance

• Discursive institutionalism

Anticipatory governance

• Anticipatory governance

• Aims to manage opportunities and challenges that are “complex”, to

adapt existing systems presently built for problems that are

“complicated” (Fuerth 2012; 2009)

(1) Bring foresight into how national policies are created & executed

(2) Networked system (incl. whole-of-government management and budgeting)

(3) Feeback system to measure consequence and expectations

(4) Open-minded institutional culture

(5) Mission-oriented tactics (Poli 2017, 244)

Discursive institutionalism

• Ideas – policies, programs and philosophies – are embedded in

institutions (Schmidt 2008).

• The big question for scholars of ideas is why some ideas become to

dominate political reality while others do not.

• Policy ideas need to have administrative and political viability in

addition to policy viability (Hall 1989);

• state perceptions (e.g. defense, security) (Katzenstein 1996), national values

and political culture (Barbier 2004); timing (Cox 2001); and some ideas are

generational (Art 2006)

Next steps

• Futures Conference: Comments on the theoretical framework

• Data: is interesting, does it fit the research question?

• Research question: are we happy with it?

• Later…

• Karjalainen to write first manuscript (Introduction, Theory, Discussion,

Conclusions) in summer-autumn

• Karekezi to comment the full manuscript

• Decisions on which journal to submit

• Thinking of other forms of publication